What If...? Episode 2

O.K. Here's another scenario for you. You're at a table of 8 players. Each of the last 5 flops you've seen at least one Jand one 4, mostly two J's and a four or two 4's and a Jack. Next hand, you are dealt J, 4 and you are the dealer. The blind is 20/40. Someone raises it to 250. Only one player calls until it's your turn. Now, do you call since Jacks and 4's have been appearing often or do you fold thinking none will show up due to the law of averages?

i'd fold

EASILY at that

J4 is a [statistically speaking] easy fold every time. what comes on the flop can be compared to coin flips: if you flip a coin 99 times and it lands heads up all 99 times, it still has a 50% chance of landing heads down on the 100th flip because every flip is independent of all other flips. likewise, every flop is independent of every other flop.

when people say "i called with my J4 because the jacks and fours have been hitting tonight," you can peg them as a fish or a gambler because they are using *superstition* to dictate their starting requirements.

that said, if you have J4 on the button, there are no raises in front, you have all the other players pegged as calling stations, you yourself are a conservative (tight/aggressive) player, there is the -chance- that you could bluff at this pot and take it down preflop. but it's not something i would do hoping that a J or a 4 hits on the flop....

Oh that is such a loaded question !!! J-4 should be folded everytime unless you are in the blind or if you are playing with very tight group that you could possibly bluff the blinds away from. Under no circumstances should you play it thinking they could hit based on previous flops !!

Where's the option to vote for "these are both stupid things to think"?

Whoa, it's just a hypothecial question! Take it easy.