Varience And Hourily Rate:

#1 4th July 2008, 3:27 PM

Was wondering how many hands i should play before accepting my success and win rate at those games.

1) How many hands to acknowledge for variance in 6 MAX 100NL games?

2) Also if anyone knows what the right number is for FULL RING 100NL?

3) Would the number of hands differ for different levels and by how much?

4) Another point is when / how do you define your hourly rate, even at 30,000 hands on FULL RING if i have a loosing session or two my hourly rate overall would be about $10, while if a have a winning session or two my overall hourly rate would be $18+. So how should you work out what you expected return is?

Thanks

#2 4th July 2008, 4:52 PM

Anybody got any thoughts on these questions, I know a lot of people would be interested in them too, thanks

#3 4th July 2008, 8:48 PM

Someone Please! Even if you don't answers for all the questions just as long as i can some some ideas please!

#4 4th July 2008, 9:36 PM

sorry no one has answered, I've seen the variance discussed in other threads. Maybe I've read 50k? FR to 6max could make some diff but I don't see how level would matter. I don't know, you can search for it if you don't get better response. I don't understand #4, your hourly rate averages all your winning and losing.

#5 4th July 2008, 10:11 PM

1) 250k at a guess
2) 100-200k?
3) The higher you go the higher the varience as the more players that are good so you need to make more marginal plays and there it takes longer for your luck to even out.
4) When you know what your bb/100 is at a level or a pretty certain its within 1 or 2 bb of that then simply use that bb/100 and times it b number of hands.

#6 7th July 2008, 1:56 AM

100,000 hands gets you roughly within +/- 1ptbb/100 of your true winrate with 95% confidence.
Example: you play 100K hands for 2.5 ptbb/100. You can then be 95% sure that your true winrate lies within 1.5ptbb/100 and 3.5ptbb/100.

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