Value betting for dummies (me)

This gives me some trouble, so I'd like to enlist your help. I seem to do ok if I aggressively take down pots when I know I'm ahead, or am likely to be, but I think I must be leaving money on the table by not getting more money into the pot. In short, I think I'm not very good at value betting.

I want to use as an example a recent hand I posted in hand analysis. We're at the turn. I have a straight, and let's say villain has AXc, with 2 clubs on the board. The nut flush draw, in other words. There's $1.70 in the pot. We are in position. Villain checks. We bet...what?

Zero is clearly bad as we let them draw for free. 19.1% of the time they hit the flush and we win nothing. 81% of the time we win at least 1.70: EV: 1.39.

Shoving seems better. Any rational villain will fold, so we win the $1.70 in the pot. Chasers will hit 19% of the time, costing us 9.55 (assuming full 10nl stacks), but miss 81% of the time, when we take down the existing pot+the 9.55 they call with. Net +EV 7.27. So shoving gets us somewhere between $1.70 and $7.27 depending on how likely they are to call. I'm figuring close to $1.70 because it's such an obvious fold.

Any bet below 50c seems a net loser assuming they call. We bet .50 and lose 19% of the time, EV=-0.095 (compared to +$1.70) and win 81% of the time, EV:$1.78. Net EV: $1.687. We're better off shoving and taking the $1.70 than betting $0.50 or any lesser amount if they call.

Am I correct in saying a value bet, then, is anything north of 0.55? It's the range where we make money if you call, so we want the call 100% of the time.

It gets hairy for me after that. Ok, so I want to bet more than 0.55, but how much more? Obviously, as much as they'll call, but how much is that? My toy example here ignores the fact that I don't really know what their cards are. So, the flush hits and they bet into me, but perhaps that's beyond the scope of value betting. Do we just size it so we can fold every time the third club hits and still make money?

RF

Anytime you want to bet with a draw heavy board, regardless if you have air or the current nuts, around a pot size bet. Absolutely nothing less than 80% of the pot.

And that's the sort of thing I often do, but it seems to nearly always mean I win the current pot, not more. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think of a PSB as a take-it-down now bet more than a value bet.

I definitely need to look at the stats more. How often does a PSB get called, etc.

RF

On the turn if you feel they are chasing then bet the max that they will call while still giving incorrect odds. For me I would throw out about 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet against that flush draw.

This is heavily villain and board texture dependent imo. If my read is that the fd is a huge part of villain's range based on what I've seen villain do, the board, and the way villain has responded to my flop bet, my next question is whether villain is likely to call w that flush draw. Some villains will not chase without something that looks like they're getting odds, some villains will chase a shove w a fd, some villains will have c/r'd the flop w the nut fd, etc. And then there are villains who will ignore the straight board and call 2/3psb w an overpair.

If we want to maximize value, we need to bet in such a way that we're denying villain the correct equity and get as much money in the pot while we have the best hand as possible. If villain will call a shove, by all means do it, if he won't call a shove but will call a psb, by all means (I'm assuming stacks are large enough relative to the pot that this makes sense). If Villain will call 1/2 psb but not 2/3 psb, then 1/2psb is correct.

My default turn bet for an unknown who I think is likely drawing is between 1/2 and 2/3 psb (my default flop cbet is between 2/3psb and 3/4psb - that makes a difference here since the size of the pot on the turn is usually a function of my flop bet). This denies any draw correct odds, but very very very many players (I play 6max, may make a diff) will call these bets w a draw for the implied odds (i.e., if they hit their draw, they expect we'll pay off more than what they had to pay for their draw) but will frequently fold a fd to a psb. The majority of the time they'll brick the draw, so the fact that we got a call on the turn is where we got value from since they'll usually have to fold the river.

If I'm incorrect that the average unknown will call 1/2psb to 2/3psb but not 3/4 to full psb's (i.e., that they will call the larger bet), then the larger bet is correct.

Note that this strategy means trying to not pay off when the draw hits (i.e., c/f river). If the flush completes on the river, I have to have some other hands I think are in villain's range to actually pay off a bet or a raise (either cuz I think villain is bluffy or cuz there are other hands I believe would've called the turn bet and still bet or raise the river).

Edit: I missed RoTs reply, mine is just a long winded way of saying what he said.

No slycbnew, yours was much more clear and enlightning. Thanks for that!