Underestimating other players...

LIVE PLAYER - NOT TOO MUCH ON THE COMPUTER

It's been odd lately I've got into hands where I made a read that was the correct read about what the person had and I made a move at them knowing they can't call with 88 or such. One instance was I had AsKs on the button. There was 1 limper in front and I raised 3XBB and he reraised the min. I felt he had 88 or 99 and there was no way he could call all-in with 88 or 99. I pushed all-in and was snap called and the guy showed 88. I was so surprised to see him snap call with 88, he said he thought I was bluffing. It worked out for me becaues I hit my A on the turn. Lately in tournaments I've moved in with marginal hands on the BB when it folded to the SB and the SB just called, thinking there is no way they can call with some crap hand. In each situation I was called with a crap hand and I had way the best hand, but lost in each situation. All these situations I really didn't want them to call and I didn't think they could, but they still did.

One of the best parts of my game is that people always think I'm bluffing even though I very rarely do bluff. I play with a lot of regulars that know I don't bluff very often, but yet these same people call my all-ins wth garbage or play back at me when I reraise thinking I must have crap. Very often on the river I'll put out a value bet of 3/4 the pot and they fold saying I know you don't have it, but I can't call (most likely they missed there draw). In each of these situations I had way the best hand and really wanted a call. It's like everything is going the opposite as I want it to go. Everyone thinks I'm bluffing and I'm not, but then I still loose. It's starting to affect my game in a negative way because I'm now getting timid to bet. I'm missing value bets, I checking when I should bet, ect.

Does anyone have any technics on how to regain confidence and how I can shake off the bad beats and unfortunate happenings? I feel like I should take a nice long break from poker, but I'm not sure if I'll come back after a couple of weeks and feel better about my varience. I was thinking about entering a tournament and just playing like a crazy man to get the nervous pervis out of my system. Maybe suck out a couple of times and get back the feeling of winning big pots.

I don't see the problem here. It seems like a great situation. You'll be paid off nicely whenever you make a good hand. Just play a lot of hands cheap and then when you hit the flop hard you can value bet and get called.

Playing like a crazy man seems stupid, as does trying to suck out. Just make good sized value bets when you have the best hand. You seem to be doing just the wrong thing by checking when you should bet. You should be betting as hard as you can whenever you have anything good.

I hear ya. I just got another stupid suck out today. I flopped top 2 pair and moved in to get called my 8d4d flush draw. Of course he hit his draw, but I couldn't believe someone would draw to the 8 high fllush for all their chips. This was a real buy-in tournament.

Oh so I've signed up for a bunch of those .10 cent tournaments and I just keep moving in every hand. Sometimes I have a good hand and I get called by really bad hands. It's fun and is making me feel better about no longer being on monkey tilt.

WOW I even suffered bad beats when I move all-in "in the dark". It's crazy... I ran into pocket QQ on the first hand about 3 times in 6 tournament. It's odd that 50% of the first hand's that called in the SNG's where QQ. Now I'm always going to fold anything JJ and worst on the first hand.

Sounds to me that you have become a predictable player who doesn't have much of an arsenal
at your disposal.
May I suggest learning how to change up your game once in awhile, adding a bluff in here and there, making a value bet when you have nothing..etc.
You see where I'm going with this?
Try playing your normal style for the first hour or so then switch it up.

Long breaks from poker actually do help, especially when you get into a rut of losing. When you come back, it takes a couple of days to regain your technique but after that it's quite easy to get back in the groove. I also found watching others play poker improved my game, such as on TV. Their actions can be emulated by the average player to get back to winning games.

Well, if you are doing that, then you have to use it to your advantage. In other words, don't put yourself into a position where you are only roughly 50/50 to win if your strategy is working. I think your all in push could only work if you had stated:

Everyone thinks I'm not bluffing and I am.

You see, if people think you're bluffing, that can cause you to get a lot of money out of them on a killer hand. But preflop, when you don't know, it's going to cause a lot of people to call you with PP, for instance. And you can only survive so many 50/50 all-ins during a tournament.

Maybe that's another way to look at it. I'm still trying to figure this game out myself, so take it for what it is!

Anyhow, love the discussion. So many angles to every situation!
dave