Theory: AKo PF in MW pot

So I am still 'stuck' at 5nl 6max, but I'm reading and trying to progress. I've come up with an idea (not a new one I'm sure) and I want to know if it makes sense.

Let's say I'm in the BB with AKo, UTG (nit) raises 4bb and 2 loose single tabling want to see a flop kind of players call and then another nitish player calls on the button. So I'm facing 4 opponents OOP with AKo.

Here I've been doing a shove. Is this correct in the long run? I see the opening nit with PP, AQ+, AJs, KQs. 2 loose callers who knows, and the nitish button has PP, TJs+, AJ+, ATs, KQs maybe? Point being, a LOT of those hands don't want to call a shove.

My idea goes as follows. More often than not I simply collect 17bb, and when I'm looked up with 22-QQ I'm a slight underdog (let's say coinflip) and obviously when I'm looked up with AQs AJs etc. I'm a massive favourite. Only when I've run into AA or KK am I in trouble - but how often does this happen? And does it happen often enough to make collecting the 17bbs worth it anyway?

Anyone got any stats or experience or maths that say that my play here is bad?

I've only played a few hands like this. So far I have been the wrong side of a coinflip and also ended up in a great position (2 loose callers, one with AJs and one with ATo!). Not enough data to be going on with though.

Raising here and I'm often getting 3 callers! Even AA versus 3 random hands isn't much more than 60%, AKo more like 40%. But HU versus one person from time to time and I'm usually doing much better than that.

AA or KK is unlikely. Nit is def. re-raising pre with AA/KK/QQ so discount him. The two loose callers would probably re-raise pre too if they're any good, as being in a likely 5-way pot is just terrible. The only person you have to worry about is UTG but only like 5% of the time will he have it, so in long term +EV. However doesn't mean it's maximum EV, better lines could be possible.

This. I definitely think it's profitable in the long run but I'm not sure it's the most profitable. I'm wondering if bumping it up to 60bb's is more likely to get the loose players to make mistakes with Ax or not.

I think with the number of callers you mentioned it's probs the best line but if there's say only 3 in front of you the pot will be 10.5-13.5 and a pot sized raise would be better, maybe something like 50bb's.

Are you saying that I raise it up to $2.50 (for 5nl)? Surely that's a clear statement that we're playing for stacks, so why not just shove and be done with it?

And if I raise it a little then a lot of people at 5nl will call (including the nit with a PP) and then I'm just praying not to whiff the flop. Because even a LOOSE player might not call a shove PF with JQs, but call a healthy reraise and then hit J73r and not fold, no way, never. Hmmm!

I suppose the line you propose involves me folding a lot if I get a lot of callers and whiff the flop?

As you move up and the average player gets bettger and hence their calling-your-shove range tightens this obviously becomes a worse and worse idea, but for 5NL I think it's fine, simply because we will get looked up by AQ/AJ-type hands a lot (and worse from the really bad players), giving us a huge chunk of value. Even if we're break-even against the average calling range, the dead money and fold equity we have means we'll come out well ahead in the long-run, and I'd argue we're actually ahead of the average 5NL player's calling range.

Folding after raising it to 50bb's is retarded obv. However if raising it to 50bb's gets him to start calling with JQ this is good right? Like I said when there's enough callers in front that a pot sized raise is more than half your stack then yeah just shove it in. If it's not then making it pot sized might be better if we get people to call with JQ etc. You also overestimate your opponents ability to realise that raising to 50bb's means playing for stacks. They won't, they just call or fold depending on their hand and what hand they can make with the other 5 cards.

No argument needed there haha.

Is what I figured.

Yeah I see what you're saying Chippy, but I suppose I mean, I'm more likely to lose the more players call. And if I raise the chance of the 2 loose callers calling and hitting the edge of a flop they'll never fold to, well... not really what I want to happen. If I'm holding AA or KK that's another matter

Yeah I understand you too, shoving in that spot is never bad at 5nl. Funny thing is I'm more likely to shove with AA cause people like to "put you on AK" and call

You play 5nl too then?

Moved down to 2nl a couple weeks ago, moving back up next week.

I considered doing the same thing, but in the last few days I've started turning things around = folding more

Lol cool. I had to move down cause I was playing 5nl under rolled > downswing > tilt > PLO > busto. A friend shipped me $15 so I've been grinding, shipped him back $20 and now I'm nearly rolled for 5nl (by my standards).

The funny thing is I'm 10bb/100 over 67k hands at 2nl (from when I was really really bad too) and I'm 17bb/100 over the past 20k hands but I've never won at 5nl and I'm actually a fairly big loser. Most of it is from when I used to just push buttons but I'm still struggling to make it home. This time I will, planning on getting a couple of guys who said they would sweat me watch me next week when I move up, maybe I'm playing differently or something

wats ur standards?

****kkkk just wrote out a long post and got logged out, ffs

I agree with the rest of your post but have to correct you here since this is very misleading and inaccurate.

Ignoring the %5, let's assume villain stacks a typical QQ+/AK range. That's the top %2.6 of hands.

Assuming he opens something like %10 utg, that means 2.6/10 = %26 of the time he will be stacking pf.

Even then, this figure is useless without factoring in our equity and the continuing ranges of everyone in between.

That said this should be a squeeze %100 of the time. Given utg is probably folding somewhere around the %75 mark (%100 - his ~%25 stacking range), then we could actually do this with 68s and show a profit. That said, the fish are still calling a ton in between, so I'm depolarizing my range here, and AK does great.

Shoving is probably profitable given all the dead money and the likelihood of getting called by a fish with like AQ or whatever, but you're losing value by not squeezing smaller and getting a whole lot more calls from the fish. Yes, you want calls.

Very well explained, you should post here more often imo!

So the bet sizing in the above situation would be what? Raise to 15-20bbs?

Around whatever pot is

If you can beat 2nl you can beat 5nl by following 3 simple rules:

1. fold everything but AA/KK to a 3bet. Shove these.
2. fold single pairs to re-raises on the flop or turn.
3. If a villain calls your PFR, calls your flop c-bet and calls or bets the turn and shoves on the River; fold single pair hands. 5nl players don't bluff often enough to call here.

there.

that should do it.

Sorry fx but I'm def going to have to disagree with you there

There are so many player at 5 nl who will stack off with much less than AA/KK. 4 bet shoving QQ, JJ and AK can all be very profitable against certain players. I cant agree with this at all.

Very loose, I plan on moving up with about 12 buyins for 5nl, moving back down when I hit 8 for 5nl, 20 for 2nl.

So I was right? My reasoning was pretty much the same too. This makes me happy

Hmmm. Don't think it's this simple tbh.

1. Not doing that.
2. 50/50 sometimes I do, sometimes I don't.
3. more like 80/20, I usually do but sometimes I don't.

I think your big misunderstanding is that a level (whether it is 5nl or 5knl) plays as a collective body that plays identically. The above statements are essentially useless.

you do know we're talking about 6-max here right?

Yes, it seems you were pretty much OTM. I guess I am still just too fearful, coupled with not being overly confident in my postflop play. I will see how it goes... thanks all.

no, sorry.

I NEVER think about 6max unless someone mentions it.

I only play Full Ring (except when I play Super Turbo HU PLO SnG's)

That's ok. I am the black sheep of Cardschat. Almost everyone disagrees with everything I say about Poker. I don't mind. You guys all love me anyway.

Besides, in 6 months my bankroll has grown 1623% but that's just because I've been on a 400k hand heater.

(it's almost as if everyone wants me to go busto so they can say nitty poker is not winning poker)

I don't want you to go busto at all.

What theyre probably saying is that if you loosened up a little then that bankroll may have grown by 4256%

Yeah my maths was a bit skewed there. But yeah it makes sense opening 10% of the time, the times he does open he'll have a premium like 25% of that.

Nice post