A Strategy question

You have KK. An excellent very, loose aggressive player is the only one in the hand with you. The flop comes... 7h,9h,10d. He states the he has so many outs your KK is no good, and he is now a favorite. He also states that regardless of who wins the pot he will give you $100, if you can name the exact 2 cards in his hands. Remember, drawing hand...Not a made hand.

Question: With that flop, what hand could he hold that has such a powerful draw, it makes your Kings an underdog?
Which hand has the maximum draw with the above flop, and how many outs can your opponent have?
Lastly, can this draw be so powerful that you really are an actual underdog?

Ive been playing less as I am currently having some card dead issues. When I go card dead I usually back off for a wile. I miss the lively discussion, and will be back soon!

BIll

1) 8h 10h - Though this is a made hand of sorts.
2) 17 at moment,4 more if either 7,8,or 9 flop whuich would put on full house.
3) Yes

(I cheated a bit with 3, thought the answer was no originally).

I guess we don't have Kh?

Anyway, Th8h, 2 outs to the str flush, 7 more to a flush, 6 more to a straight that isn't a straight flush, and 2 to three Ts = 17 outs = 60% chance to hit on turn or river, minus a little bit that I can't be bothered to work out because there's a possibility you could hit three Ks or some crazy runner runner, but it's still gotta be comfortably over 50%.

Edit: Ah8h actually has 18 outs and a 62% chance, one more because one of 3 aces can hit as opposed to two tens, so I guess it could be this too.

Edit 2: ...and seeing as he's far more likely to be in the hand with Ah8h than Th8h, Ah8h would be my guess.

Edit 3: *knees chicubs in the grin*

Edit 4 (I'm going for an unintentional record here): grin = groin

10-8 of hearts is a 64.7 - 35.3 favorite

9 hearts, 3 6's, 3 J's, 3 8's, and 2 10's add up to 20 outs.


A8 of hearts is a 61.4 - 38.6 favorite over KK in this spot according to the odds calculator at Cardplayer.com

Not only will a heart crack the Kings, a J or a 6 completes the straight.

Also, an ace will give top pair, beating Kings.

This adds up to 9 hearts, 3 6's (don't count the 6 of hearts again), 3 J's (don't count the J of hearts again, as well as the remaining 3 aces for a grand total of 18 outs.

In both examples KK has the possibility to win after a hand is made...

If you hold T8 and catch a ten or an 8 and a K falls on the river, KK wins.

If you hold A8 and catch an A, and once again a K falls on the river, KK wins.

This is why the percentages don't match up exactly to a direct odds calculation.

Since you all are figuring the odds out and such, I would simply like to say I had a hand somewhat similar to this this morning. Except in my case it was KK in my hand, and a 7910 flop (all different suits). Sure am glad no one had/caught a straight .

before reading everyones reply I did some quick math and came up with 8 10 of hearts, although whoever made the point about A 8 hearts has a good point. What happened, did you call or fold? What did he have? 8 10 suited is a very playable hand, especially for a loose aggressive player

i agree, my first thought was the 8 10 hearts or A8 hearts. Both giving the flush and straight draw and 10s bein top pair with aces bein top pair if another one comes out.

He could have 8, J.

Then he already has a made hand...

I'm sure A8 of hearts is the answer as Chicubs said. Have to admit I found percentages a surprise - an unmade hand being clear favourite over a made hand post flop. I'm sure some of those "bad beats" I suffered in the past weren't actually bad beats at all.

Opponent wouldn't actually need to catch K, as you'd only have 88 or TT, so he's ahead already.

I'm going to stop thinking about this one now!

A8 is exactly right, and yes when I write these it's a bit tough. You did not have the King of Hearts. I am impressed.
It is surprising how certain flop matrixes can give hidden value tremendous power. It does help you see pre flop values in a different light. THis is why I call them pre flop values, they are not hands until 5 cards are involved.
Also, next time you here about KK cracked by A,garbage. ask what the flop was. Was there a matrix that should have raised flags? Bets saved are bets earned.

Did you guys enjoy this? Should I make more?

Bill

I really enjoyed trying to figure out the different possibilities, brought my son into the melee, and set his analytical mind to work, We argued about a lot of the combos and spent a lot of quality time together trying to get a choke hold on each other. We were both wrong, but it did raise our insight. Yes, by all means, go ahead and see what else you can come up with.

hahah yeah that is weird, but its hard to tell every player plays those types of hands differently