Stealing from the button

Because button steals are super obvious and are extremely common, people are more likely to call/3bet light. Knowing this could we bet more like 5xbb+ from the button with our good hands and expect just as many people to call thus taking advantage of them calling lighter and getting more value from our hands?

Dont make steal size bigger, make it smaller. A 2.5bb steal only needs to work 62% of the time to show an immediate profit.

So if villian folds more than 62% then you show an instant profit.

When you raise to 5x you need to show a 76% success rate to auto profit.

which means you need them to fold more than 76% to show a profit.

So the bigger your bet the more it needs to work.

If the blinds wont fold. Find another table

Failing that tighten up you range and also increase the raise size. But you have to realise that when you do this, you are no longer stealing you are instead making a value raise from the button.

Its unusual for people to be calling so light that your steals are unprofitable. They arent ever greatly profitable, but it adds up. Really all you are trying to achieve is a situation whereby your steal positions win enough blinds that you see all flops at a discount.

No. Bet smaller and steal more if anything. Over my db my overall steal % for FR is 36% (43% from the BTN) and my steal success rate is right at 60%. I'm winning at over 12BB/100 in pots where I attempt to steal. Don't pass up on those BTN/CO dollars.

wow 43% thats crazy. Mine says only 28% from the button

Sounds like you need to steal more.

you maniacs and your steals

Fixed your post.

Good thread, so if someone is betting say 12c at the 2/5c games on and off chances are he is stealing and I should re-raise?

If you can read out he is steal.
U can reraise 2.5 his bets to steal again.
If he 4 bets , just fold.
I think it may be work at 6Max games!

If they're doing it frequently enough, and you have a decent hand, yes.


FWIW, no one at 5nl knows what they're doing, they are certainly not stealing with appropriate ranges and adjusting to a good raise size. And smaller blind steal bet sizes are not very exploitable (big bet sizes on the other hand are very exploitable).

Also, the guy on the button has to have a very weak range before he's actually doing anything wrong. The guy who's OOP however has to have a strong range, relative to the button's.

Well, he should be betting the same from the BTN pretty much every time, whether that's 2x, 2.5x or 3x. Also if he's betting smaller it actually lessens the incentive to 3bet light because there is less dead money in the pot. 3betting from the blinds is occasionally necessary but it is way overused imo.

Has anyone ever tried it in 2nl? if so how well does it work?
I can say i've been stealing in rush poker, for the most part it works.
I don't have any stats for it...

So is this a sort of pick you battles thing and I should only 3bet him when I am fairly strong and then do the same that he is doing when I am in position?

And Pokerkid I agree I play 5nl and I dont know what I am doing , although I know a bit more than the average fish there.

Yeah you pick your strong hands obviously and the occasional light hand with decent equity if called (SCs / Axs). The more he attempts to steal the more you can 3bet, especially if he fold to 3bets a lot. It's a tough balancing act because he can start 4betting or calling your 3bets in position and make things tough on you.

At 5nl I'm not sure many of you opponents will be stealing so much that you really need to start 3betting light but you could find some spots where you could widen your value range.

Ok I see thanks, I noticed yesterday I wasnt reraising much and wasnt to sure of people betting 12c when obv it is a cheap way to steal.

what's your name it might've been me

My name is Durrrrr

Interesting post Stu. I get what you're saying but could you just explain your calculations to me please

Thanks!

x/(x+y) = required success

where x = your bet and y = the current size of the pot

Love this. I never knew there was a way to quantify the success of your steal attempts other than the higher the better.

Just remember, don't worry if you're not getting quite the right number of folds to make your steals immediately profitable, you're going to be winning more than enough postflop to cover the gap.

You mean when you get called and c-bet?

Yes. Sometimes you'll make the best hand postflop and sometimes they'll just fold to your cbet. Either way, you have position so you'll be winning way more than you'll be losing if your steal attempt gets called.

All I was trying to say is that if you run your numbers with the formula Stu used above and see that you're not making an immediate profit because people aren't folding quite enough, you don't necessarily need to decrease your ATS% or the size of your steal attempts. You'll still be making heaps of money when you attempt to steal.

Its only an issue if its way under what you need.

You make it up for c bets on the flop and then the turn.

A better way of looking at it is that you are not trying to show an immediate profit from stealing (although against some you will) but what you are doing is reducing the average cost of seeing a flop. You also off set some of the burden of the blinds.

people dont tend to play back with a significantly wider range to a smaller bet than a bigger bet so by betting smaller you risk less and thus profit more. You also do interesting things to the 3bet size.. meaning that you can call a 3bet with a wider range as you have position and its a smaller 3bet size. OR the villian continues to make big 3bets which mean that he nees to be successfull more often than if they were smaller so when you have a hand, you profit more.

I.e. if he 3bets to his normal standard size then you can fold more because when you do get a hand you make more money back when you 4bet/flat.

if he 3bets to a smaller size then you get better odds on a call and can widen your flatting range *a bit*

you would think it would never work but i min raise for profit on the button! (i play at .25/.50)

Heh I was playing rush today, first hand and someone bets 12c so it comes to me in the small blind I four bet him with AQh he thinks then pushes so I called :P he had KK. Apart from this, which I played horrible I have been having some decent results with the 2.5x steal and restealing. I liked his play though it looked like a steal so when I took the bait he made me pay and I was stupid enough to call.

I know several very good players who always min raise the BTN and they'll do it with basically ATC from 72o to AA. Point is that playing lots of pots in position is very profitable.

Just because someone raises 2.5x doesn't mean it's a steal attempt. Whatever your BTN raise size is you should stick with it regardless of hand strength (varying based on opponent's tendencies and effective stack size can be fine). Also AQs is a great hand to flat a steal attempt with because if you 3bet you opponent likely folds worse and calls/4bets better.

I try to stay away from stealing in that postion. It is so common now that the blinds don't blieve it half the times and stay. I try more from the next postion over and it has be working since the button only calls with good cards. The button sometimes is overrated but it also depends who's at your table. If I noticed the blinds fold then I would start doing it but find the blinds calling and it could be the end of the tourney for you if they flop 2 pair.

This is true and I am discovering that I spew in the first few minutes when I join a game which means I spend the next half hour regaining loses.

With AQo i autofold to a 4bet from any player except a maniac

So, how can I prove the success of my steals using my PT3 database? Is there a report that I can run that will take into account all my steals whether they were successful preflop, called and won w/o showdown and w/showdown and also failed either preflop, w/o showdown or w/showdown?

Steal steal is nice
.I like steal blinds in LP

yeah,there is a report at pt3.
Hope u can find it.

Great thanks....!

You can just add the Steal Success stat to see how often you're winning without seeing a flop (mine is just under 60%). You can also add a filter for pots where you attempted to steal and then look at your WR in those spots by position. Remember if your db is small you may not have the sample required to make any real determination.