Small sample - Worried I am having too much variance 2NL

Hey all, we all know how variance can affect play, but I have a small sample in wich I would like some insight, I am looking for mistakes but also good things.

I will start by posting my graph and we will go from there.



Ok, so basicaly I have identified 3 things, in red, I would say those are "storms" where I was running extremly bad, probably due to variance, but still, running really bad.

In blue, theres a spot where I think I was running good, or maybe I am wrong and it is due to good play, I need some explanation how the graphic works.

Finaly, in green, I would like to know what the f*** might have happened.


Would you say that I am running into variance as any player would, or am I maybe taking too much all in decisions, wich is influencing alot my bankroll?

Second thing I would like you to analyse is my position statistics:



Now I have already identified that I am leeking from the blinds, I am currently working on those stats. Would you consider these statistics as a winning player or as a losing player, I want to know anything you can give me.

Please, ask for anything you would like to know about me, I will post the images without any problem.

Thanks all for your help.

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In general you seem to be calling too much PF and not raising enough.

For full ring you are waaay to loose in EP. You're limping in a lot. For seats 6,5 and 4 you should be raising the pot if you enter into it. Play a tight range in those seats. Something like 99+ and AQs+. Its ok to fold small pairs here. You will always be OOP and you need to play hands that are good enough to counter being OOP.

I copy and pasted this from another thread I posted in just yesterday but it applies here too. Simple and basic and will keep you out of trouble. Post in HA for the difficult situations you get into.

Yeah, I have already ajusted my PFR in most position, and I have tightened a bit my early position, but only after 5k hands, so its not really showing.

Thanks!

Here is a tip that would make you a winner over this sample and I guarantee you you can do it every time without fail.

Stop posting outside of the blinds! Over the posted sample, posting outside of the blinds has cost you $1.60 or 80bbs or .85BB/100!

Look like my graph that. Rougly same amount of hands and same sort of thing going on..I'v lost a lot of money from the SB I think. Very simular, you should check mine at least I'm not the only one who's like a yo-yo. The only difference (I dunno what hands your losing on) but currently my biggest hands have cost me an overall net-loss. Aces have cost me the most money because I'v been re-raised all-in pre-flop and obviously had to call and I'm not getting paid for them yet, hope it changes.

Am I riding bad variance or playing it wrong?

My expected EV after 18000 hands is 35$, my net gain is -4,50 $ and my showdown gain is -15 $...

I mean you're not running well with expected EV but that doesn't mean you've won more than your fair share of other hands that you usually wouldn't have.

The main issue is in the title of your thread. "Small sample" and "variance". You realize the more hands the less variance right?

now, that graph seems about right to me, don't know what people are reading into it, looks like an ok graph.

red line should be going down at microstakes, mine is diving into hell from what i can tell, yet my winnings are huge for this level. so stop minding the red line, that will go up at higher levels when you can outplay people preflop and when you can win with a c-bet, you can win with a c-bet here, well, most of the time you can't, so red line is good, in fact, ignore it from now on.

green line and yellow line, you are running like 5$ under ev line, that shouldn't bother you too much, that's 2 buy ins.

the blue line should be going up. just the way the red line should be going down, however the blue line should be going way higher than the red line goes down.

now, about the marks you made with the green square and the blue square, thats the way your blue and red line should act. at the peak of blue you ware up 14$ and the red went down to -11$ giving you a total profit of 3$ and thats how you make money at microstakes, win more at showdown than you lose without a showdown, don't try to actually make the red line go up, it won't happen, its all about the blue line going higher than the red line is going down.

i will show you an awesome graph to make you understand:



it's mine.

Not entirely true. This month I've focused on stealing small uncontested pots. Value betting more thinly on the river, making villain pay big on the turn when I put him on a draw. I ran like crap at the start of the month, but turned it around and tailored back my aggression some and got my showdown winnings back in the positive. So it's possible to have a positive red line at the micros.

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micros go from 2nl to 25nl, seems like you are playing at least 10nl there, just not the same thing. you can steal at 10nl and 25nl, hell you might do it at 5nl, but i believe you really shouldn't be focusing on that at 2nl.

plus, looking at your graph, your green line only started going upwards when the red line started going downwords. so probably not the best example you ever gave :P

My red line went upwards while my blue line wa going upward for a while. Now my red line is positive and my blue line is negative. I am also running around 20$ below ev. Yesterday i won 20$ profit to go in the overall positive after 20k hands. During that profit period my red line was stable. But its duly noted, red line should'nt be going up.

Wow that's incredible. I can't believe how much that adds up to.

Just as an update, I am currently running NET 30$ profit over 25K hands. I am still running 30$ below my EV though.

My Red line is running upward in the positive trend, my blue line is running upward in the positive trend. That can't be bad, right?

I am stealing alot of pots, folding more often than I was before, going to showdown with good equity. Still running prety bad in cards, but I think I am beating this blind level. I will move up a notch as soon as I reach 150$ bankroll.

I agree with this 100%. At 2nl over use of c-betting, floating and bluffing rarely work at all. There are some 8/5 nits that this works against but if I had to guess at a Mean VPIP for 2NL on Full Tilt I would say it would be in the low 20's.


Here are my numbers and chart:

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I learned the hard way(5 BIs) over the last two days that trying to steal and cbet do not work in 2nl