Nope, you didn't misread the title. I'm convinced that against a reasonably TAG or LAG player that this is profitable as long as it is not overdone.

Let's look at some ranges. Since preflop raise from the button is the one variable, we'll leave that alone for now. First we need to look at the ranges needed to call such a move. You're on the button, you raise 4x, SB folds and BB shoves. What will you call with? Obviously AA/KK, and maybe AK/QQ. If they've done it a few times before MAYBE with JJ. Let's assume they'll do it with this range, which makes up just over 3% (3.01%, we'll estimate 3% for this).

Now we need to calculate the equity here. If we do this with ATC the button has 75% equity when he calls. As an alternative, let's also look at the AA/KK and the AA/KK/AK ranges for tighter players. AA/KK is 0.9% and AA/KK/AK is 2.1%. Equity of AA/KK is 83.8% and equity of AA/KK/AK is 73.5%.

So our table looks like this:

Range Equity % of hands
AA/KK 83.8% 0.9%
AA/KK/AK 73.5% 2.1%
JJ+/AK 75% 3%


Now the odds we get when bluffing are 99:5.5 = 18:1. This means that if we can win 18/19 of hands we don't even have to have any equity in the pots we get called. Note that 18/19 is just under 95% and none of our ranges are higher than 5%. First off we'll do the calculation for a hypothetical button who raises ATC unopened and only calls AA/KK.



99.1% of the time we win the pot right there and the other 0.9% we win (1-.838) of the time. So we win 0.991*5.5 + 0.009*(1-.838)*(5.5+96) - 0.009*(.838)*99 = 4.85 bb's. Now let's see just how tight the range of button stealing would have to be for us not to be able to profitably shove here:

First I'll do a general expression, a=preflop button open raising range, b=range of calling shove (as a subset of overall, not subset of preflop open raising range), c=equity of range against ATC.

(1-b/a)*5.5 + (b/a)*(1-c)*102.5 - (b/a)*c*99 = 0. - b/a = range of calling shove from range raised preflop.

5.5 - 5.5b/a + 102.5*b/a - 102.5*cb/a - 99cb/a = 0
5.5a - 5.5b + 102.5b - 102.5bc - 99bc = 0
5.5a + 97b - 201bc = 0
5.5a = 201bc - 97b
a = 36.54bc - 17.64b

Since b and c are completely correlated, mainly we're looking at the kind of a we would need to have for various b's (from which we can get c).

So let's start with AA/KK. b=0.9%, c=83.8%

a = 0.117

Yes if you are playing someone who only calls a shove with AA/KK and they raise any more than 12% on the button, you can profitably shove with ATC.

AA/KK/AK. b = 2.1%, c = 73.5%

a = 0.193

Here we need someone stealing on the button 20+%

AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK. b = 3%, c = 75%

a = .292

So if we have someone calling this wide of a range for a shove, it's now profitable against someone who steals a lot in position, but no longer profitable if we have a tighter player who doesn't steal a ton.

Also note that since we most likely wouldn't be straight shoving AA/KK/AK/AQ/22+/KQ/etc. we can't really use those ranges, but take a look at for example 84s against these ranges. It actually does BETTER than ATC against the AA/KK range. In fact it is probably better to be shoving trash hands rather than hands with an A or K because you'll so likely be dominated when called with those hands.

Now of course the thing we need to look at is that even if shoving is +ev, could 3-betting light be MORE +ev?

Basically looking at it 3-betting light seems to be the answer against not so good players, but if we get a tricky player that knows you and will use position to outplay you with a wide range of small pockets and suited connectors, it gets worse. The other thing is you can't do it every time, because if they realize that your range when shoving is actually ATC or even worse ATC aside from AA/KK/AK/etc. then they can profitably call much wider and our play is no longer +ev. Even still though, do you know of a single player who will call with 88 to a 100 bb shove just thinking they're ahead of our range? Or someone who will call with KQ?

The easiest defense is actually to tighten up preflop, but as shown above, they would have to tighten up a ton, and if we're talking about frequent multi-tablers, they're not likely to tighten up that much just because you are in the big blind.

Thoughts on this, and whether it could ever be practically used or whether you just think the light 3-bet is always better?

Solved Pre-flop game

I'd be lying if I said I'd worked through the maths Zach, but if I saw someone doing this more than a couple of times my range would get a lot bigger which would distort the odds. Of course once you get called with ATC then everyone at the table starts making notes and your equity v the rocks and nit regs drops a fair bit.

It's certainly a fertile area for discussion though.

Originally Posted by Irexes

I'd be lying if I said I'd worked through the maths Zach, but if I saw someone doing this more than a couple of times my range would get a lot bigger which would distort the odds. Of course once you get called with ATC then everyone at the table starts making notes and your equity v the rocks and nit regs drops a fair bit.

It's certainly a fertile area for discussion though.

ok well ignore the math, just trust that I did everything right .

But in all seriousness I think in terms of doing it once light 3-betting is definitely the way to go. My question is that if you see a player who has shoved several times after a 4x raise just how wide does your range get?

The one thing I didn't realize before I made this post though was that apparently people don't raise with position as often as I thought. The overall average of unopened raise from late position was 21%. And since I've been multi-tabling this average favors the heavy multi-tabling players who I would expect to be making these positional raises more. For comparison mine is 48%. But if the number really is closer to 21%, all of a sudden even the AA/KK/AK calling range almost profits from us shoving ATC.

As for you though, the sample I have of you is only a few hundred hands, but has you at 2.6% PFR on the button. So in your case I doubt anyone shoving ATC on you would be able to profit just because although your button raise range is almost definitely actually wider than 2.6%, it probably isn't up above 30%. Unless you've loosened up, not exactly sure when these hands were logged.

Anyway, this just sort of caught my attention because the response of most to a light 3-better (ie me) has been to float it a lot and use position to play postflop. The shove negates this advantage, but obviously is a problem because the few times we are called we are usually heavy underdogs. The only answer it seems to the shove is to tighten up preflop, unless we really want to open up our calling ranges. Rex, since you mentioned it, how often would you loosen your calling range up against a player who has shoved to a 4x raise a few times before? Is the shove a valid tool in forcing a player to tighten up on the button? The only problem is when dealing with ranges we don't know when the range has been tightened until several orbits around where they have had the chance to raise the button. If you raise all-in and he folds, then raises the next button, did he just not remember the last time, or did his range tighten up?

The hands on me are likely at the hole-cards up game we played plus a few others (I was playing an odd game there as the table was an odd one) but I'm usually raising the button very wide depending on who is in the blinds.

The range I would open up to would vary a lot depending on what I'd seen, but I could see a lot of pairs getting involved. More importantly I'd be looking to isolate and play post flop with a very big range of hands as I'd assume this was evidence of aggressiveness that could be exploited (of course I could be wrong about this).

Originally Posted by Irexes

The hands on me are likely at the hole-cards up game we played plus a few others (I was playing an odd game there as the table was an odd one) but I'm usually raising the button very wide depending on who is in the blinds.

The range I would open up to would vary a lot depending on what I'd seen, but I could see a lot of pairs getting involved. More importantly I'd be looking to isolate and play post flop with a very big range of hands as I'd assume this was evidence of aggressiveness that could be exploited (of course I could be wrong about this).

??

I thought you were saying your calling range would widen (of the shove after your 4x raise).

But yeah, got some hands from the holecards up and some from 100nl.

I think the math looks good, but can you define the type of player you want to use this move against better than just LAG?

I think many overaggressive online player will be button raising with all sorts of crap that they wouldn't call a BB shove with. That is what you're basing your assertions on...the idea that they won't call.

However, many of the players that think button raising every time it's folded to them is the way you play Holdem are also the players who can't let go of AJ or AT when they button raise with it. They don't do calculations or put the BB shover on a range of hands...they raise AT and when you shove they think "there's no way this guy has me beat" and they hit their favorite button...the call button.

I have seen other players try this move and run into a lot of trouble, both in live play and online.

For example, I like to play two and three table rig-n-goes on Jokerstars now and then and I recently saw a player BB shove against a button raise with something like J8 or J7s...the button insta called with KQs. After that BB shover lost, he typed "how can you call there with KQ moron!" or something like that. And the button gave the standard "I got your chips" reply.

I think you will find that it plays out like this for you a lot more than the math will suggest. LAG players love the LAG style because they love to play a lot of hands. It isn't in their nature to let a hand go because they might be behind and they certainly don't worry about calculating EV or anything like that.

Now if you are dealing with a strong LAG player (and they are very rare), who likes to mix it up, but folds when he thinks he's beat, this strategy would be profitable in the long run, as the calculations suggest.

Any thoughts on that?

Do you balance this play at all, or is it reasonable to think that whenever you shove in the BB vs. a button open, it's trash?

For what it's worth, I think you get the same amount of bang for fewer bucks by 3-betting light but make the 3-bet larger than you normally would. If you're worried about being 4-bet bluffed, put him to the test by making your 3-bet a size where the 4-bet bluff would need to be essentially all-in to make sense. So if he raises to 4BB, re-raise him to 25BB. If he wants to come over the top, he's all-in or close to it.

Also, there's no real need to do this with the worst of trash. I'd pick suited hands, at the very least, because even the small increase in equity that suited hands bring make a decent chunk of difference the (rare) times you're called and playing for stacks.

Originally Posted by On A Pair Draw

I think the math looks good, but can you define the type of player you want to use this move against better than just LAG?

I think many overaggressive online player will be button raising with all sorts of crap that they wouldn't call a BB shove with. That is what you're basing your assertions on...the idea that they won't call.

Agreed, they should be good aggressive players. I've also mentioned that 3-betting light is better against bad passive players, but if you do this to a good player he may float and use position to his advantage.

Originally Posted by On A Pair Draw

However, many of the players that think button raising every time it's folded to them is the way you play Holdem are also the players who can't let go of AJ or AT when they button raise with it. They don't do calculations or put the BB shover on a range of hands...they raise AT and when you shove they think "there's no way this guy has me beat" and they hit their favorite button...the call button.

*Raises hand*

Unless I am against loose passive type players, I'm raising the button unopened with pretty much ATC. If I start getting played back at light I tighten up, and as mentioned if there's a 45/5 sitting in the blinds there's no way I'm doing it, but if you get people who will call with 10% of their range regardless and doesn't pick up on the fact you're raising the button with ATC it becomes extremely profitable. Obviously with trash to a decent 3-bet I'm folding, and trash includes AJ and AT, don't want to be playing these hands oop in a 3-bet pot.

Originally Posted by On A Pair Draw

I have seen other players try this move and run into a lot of trouble, both in live play and online.

For example, I like to play two and three table rig-n-goes on Jokerstars now and then and I recently saw a player BB shove against a button raise with something like J8 or J7s...the button insta called with KQs. After that BB shover lost, he typed "how can you call there with KQ moron!" or something like that. And the button gave the standard "I got your chips" reply.

Tournaments are a different animal. What were the stacks like? I'm guessing no more than 20 big blinds. I did mention I'm discussing 100 big blind effective stacks.

Originally Posted by On A Pair Draw

I think you will find that it plays out like this for you a lot more than the math will suggest. LAG players love the LAG style because they love to play a lot of hands. It isn't in their nature to let a hand go because they might be behind and they certainly don't worry about calculating EV or anything like that.

Now if you are dealing with a strong LAG player (and they are very rare), who likes to mix it up, but folds when he thinks he's beat, this strategy would be profitable in the long run, as the calculations suggest.

Any thoughts on that?

I don't know if you'd consider me a strong LAG player, but I do play pretty LAG when I'm 1-tabling or playing live. Granted when up against loose passive players LAG is throwing away money and I won't do that, but against reasonably competent players I like to think I'm a decent LAG. I just play the position game a lot. The goal is to build pots with a wider range in position. Even if they know I'm on a wide range, it's still tough to play a big pot against an aggressive opponent oop.

Now when I'm 18-tabling it's tough to play LAG, but as mentioned I'm extremely liberal with opening ranges in the button/co and these steals really do pay off. I most of the time though just fold to 3-bets unless I have a really good reason to believe I'm being 3-bet light by this opponent. From what I've seen, I'm one of these players this move would work against, although the light 3-betting would work better.

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

Do you balance this play at all, or is it reasonable to think that whenever you shove in the BB vs. a button open, it's trash?

And here lies the problem. This does not work if we do it every time. If our opponent can accurately assign our range as ATC aside from monsters, they can really open up their range and beat us. So we can't do it 100% of the time. But we've already established that as a first time move a light 3-bet would be better.

So it would be a move we could make when our opponent may put us on light 3-betting and float us, but is not smart enough to pick up on our range and call a shove with KQ/77 type hands.

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

For what it's worth, I think you get the same amount of bang for fewer bucks by 3-betting light but make the 3-bet larger than you normally would. If you're worried about being 4-bet bluffed, put him to the test by making your 3-bet a size where the 4-bet bluff would need to be essentially all-in to make sense. So if he raises to 4BB, re-raise him to 25BB. If he wants to come over the top, he's all-in or close to it.

While my post was overall mainly theoretical, this actually has a ton of merit to it and I really didn't think about it. Although the major problem I've seen hasn't been light 4-betting, it's been floating the 3-bet and playing in position, if we simply 3-bet to 25 bb or something, we get a similar calling range, I know if that happened to me I'd consider folding QQ and definitely fold JJ, but this raise size really looks like it commits them, although I may even consider something like 35 instead of 25 just to be enough to really convince them that a call commits them to the pot.

And then if we get even a call we have to give up. Although again, we'd have to do this without our opponent knowing, and the time he calls it with AA figuring no need to 4-bet if we're committed already and then we C/F the flop will tell him about our actions there (or our first showdown with it when we do flop big).

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

Also, there's no real need to do this with the worst of trash. I'd pick suited hands, at the very least, because even the small increase in equity that suited hands bring make a decent chunk of difference the (rare) times you're called and playing for stacks.

Right, if we're not going to do it 100% of the time, which we've already established is a bad thing, we can pick which hands we want to do it with, which as you mentioned could include suited connectors. I think pairs just have too much value in set mining to 3-bet them big in the blinds.

So I guess this isn't as large of a revelation as I thought in the beginning. It will work against someone who steals blinds liberally, stacks tightly, and isn't good enough to realize our range when we do this or tighten up on the button when we do this. We have to do it frequently, but not frequently enough for them to realize what we're doing. Just way too many stipulations for me to think about utilizing the move in an actual game. Forget even what sparked this but I was just amazed that basically if I raised in the blinds, the BB shoving with ATC would be profitable against me, although after 2-3 times I would be raising with a far narrower range of hands with this player in the blinds.

I would imagine when you are called and show 85o that at least a few at the table would make a note of the play. That one note might get you larger calling range than you are calculating for, even if the player was simply at the table when you did it 4 days prior. I just cant imagine that you can keep the ranges you are assuming doing this in the long run. (I know you are doing it rarely but really if people are taking notes this is about the best note you can have against a reg).

This also has to be done at the right players(mostly good players) to make it profitable I feel. Against weak player 3 bet light would be a better play, and also they are more fishes that think screw you, you cant bluff me off my AJ, if you had me beat you wouldnt push and nobody in the BB can have a good hand. Good players probably have a lot of hands on you and will catch on, especially if you have never shown a good hand once, which you say you wouldnt do it with.

You have to win a lot of the moves, and while I agree the ranges would be tight at first, even the second and surely the third time you have done this with anyone at table I think the range hits a point that the people this is most profitable against(good players who steal blinds, float 3 bets and would lay down TT,JJ hands to a shove) no longer holds true. I am not saying that everyplayer is paying attention and/or has the balls to call with 88 even after seeing you do this with trash before, but if only a few regs pick up on this, it quickly becomes ev-.

One arguement for this however is people who; steal a lot of blinds, will float, notice you push, doesnt have the balls to call with AQ, 88 hands will probably steal your blinds less. Very interesting point you have made and great math used as always I just feel that this is a ev+ move the first couple of times(which I guess makes my answer yes) but could be devestating if/when a few regs pick up on it.

Originally Posted by zachvac

My question is that if you see a player who has shoved several times after a 4x raise just how wide does your range get?

Once you pull this move for the 3rd or 4th time (to me or to other players), I'll probably call you with:
88+
KJo+
K9s+
And I'll often have one of these hands because I'll have tightened up my opening range considerably (anticipating the shove).

I think this is where your math is off. Bad players are gonna call you light to begin with, and good players are going to adjust their range as well.

ok so if we have people adjusting ranges, can we profitably do this to get range adjustments and then start shoving only AA/KK?

If we're at a table with even only 3 other regs who see this and note it, we can then do this 3 separate times with AA/KK at a table where only one of the previous 3 regs is sitting and basically do it until we get a call from them since they'll assume it's still trash if we don't show.

But then we get into the multilevel thinking game, and maybe they'll expect that, but if they're expecting that we could continue to shove ATC, but they may be one step ahead, etc.

I thought about that after my post. How many times do you get called down before straight pushing AA/KK though. Lets say you get called by 88 by a reg on button. Two orbits later he raises into your AA. Do you push again? does he know you will, or more likely wont. If you simply 3 bet does that mean he knows you are holding AA or simply giving up on your strat since you got caught. If he would know could you just do it with ATC and assume you have AA?

One thing to add not related. If you do this strategy some people, maybe not the other regs, may think you are a fish(especially if you get shown down). That could increase your value bets(decrease your bluffs but I would think the bonus of having your value bets called light outweights the bluffs getting called).

Getting into this 3rd level of thinking can also get to the point of are you playing so deceptive that you are losing on overall equity? ie instead of deciding to push with AA, is the overall strategy becomming less ev+ than simply playing your game. Although, maybe this could turn into playing your game... 3 betting light evolved in a similar way i guess...

Originally Posted by zachvac

ok so if we have people adjusting ranges, can we profitably do this to get range adjustments and then start shoving only AA/KK?

I don't think so. You get dealt AA and KK too rarely. If you stop shoving ATC after the 3rd time, it may take 20 more orbits before you get dealt KK and somebody steals. By then, your ATC shoving image has faded too much.

I think it's much better to make a standard 3-bet against steal attempts. If villain calls these too much you can make the 3-bets bigger and/or tighten up a little. Against habitual 3-bet peelers you should also push your hand really hard if you connect with the flop at all.