Set over set....Always going broke?

Its rare, I know, but how often can you get away from 2nd or 3rd set on a dry board?

Think about the read you'd have to have on Villain in order to fold 77 on a J72r flop. It would have to be that he's never giving action with an overpair on that board. Same w 22 on that flop.

Yup, I'm always going broke here given the opportunity.

Short answer: Yes, go broke.

Against a real nit or on some 4 straight or flush board, or when you've got like a 200bb effective stack, maybe you can fold but even stacking in these spots isn't going to be terrible very often.

Folding sets is almost always a sign of getting too fancy for your own good.

I'm hard-pressed to come up with any flop where I'm not going broke with a set against just about anyone I've ever played, at least if stacks are around 100bbs.

Dakota and ChuckTs played a hand live versus one another in Vegas. The board was J-T-2 rainbow, Taylor (Chuck) had opened in middle position and Debi (Dakota) was the only one who saw a flop with him, and she was in position. Effective stacks were $600, and this was a 1/2 game. Taylor bets maybe $15 at the pot, and Debi raises to $50. He thinks for a little while, then he makes it $110. Debi thinks for a little while and raises again to $230 (I'm guessing at the bet sizes). Taylor looks like he's about to throw up. Knowing, as I did and as Taylor surely did, that Debi is a reasonably tight player, she will have a set there just about always. JT might have been an option when she raised the first time, but not when she raised again. Taylor's difficult decision means that he has pocket deuces. He thinks and thinks and finally calls. The turn is an ace, which I think Taylor decided completed the straight (in case Debi was getting seriously out of line with KQ) and he checks, Debi goes all-in and Taylor gets that pale god-this-sucks aura about him again. Finally he folds. Correctly.

But they were playing 300 deep, they were playing live, and they knew each other. 100bb deep, Taylor would have played for stacks without even blinking, even knowing Debi as well as he did.

if you are deep enough - you can fold it. Some players are very bad and don't bet their top sets A,K,Q ... If the original raiser checks when a big card hits and I have a set - I usually check, because I want to let him bluff on later streets or I suspect that he checked his top set. If the guy's going crazy on the turn or river after showing weakness on the flop - it's 95%+ very big set.

Sweet, glad to see I'm not alone. When I have a stack of 175 bb or more I am generally looking for another table because I don't have a lot of experience that deep.
Thanks all.

I am going broke 100% if the opponent is a player i never played. But if is someone i played with at least 10 hours and i see him never going all in without a reason i might thinking of folding. But than again. I took a lot of bad beats from players i played a lot just because they made a surprize move and hit the flop hard.
I remember again how i took a bad beat at a final table 2000 persons freeroll from a player that limped with 2 aces from early position ... none limped untill the button , button called , SB folded and i with AK from BB being the sitting duck i raised 4 BB . Flop AK and something and i was broke when the hand finished.
He never limped , and the table was not that tight that he could afford 3-4 persons to see the flop.
If i had have KK same thing would have happen.

U have to play with someone for a lot of time to guess what is he thinking and even if u know how he plays .. this kind of hands are hard to play in he right way ... folding.

I see a flaw in your logic. How do you expect to get better at this aspect of the game if you never play it?

Read a few books on deepstack play, have a few discussions with poker smart people. (Dunno where you'd find those.) Just because it's a lot of money at risk doesn't mean you can't learn... For instance, get a stack up to 200 BBs and leave the table? Sure, you just doubled your buy-in, but now an all-in pot will put you at 400 BBs. I like having AA against KK. And I like when I get paid 200+ BBs more than I like getting paid 100 BBs.

Also if you're worried about losing a lot of money in a hand, you can play lower stakes. I meant to make that post but I'm tired.

Regards,

WG

WG
Its not so much that Im afraid to lose the cash, its more that I start playing way too loose with deepstack and spew chips. I didnt really make that clear. Wait, I guess then I am afraid of losing the cash cause I know my play deteriorates with a huge stack!
I do need to learn how to play it though. New thread topic!

We beginners all have the same problem. Deep stack is like a way to make full of ourselfs.
It is a problem that i saw oftem , myself included, cannot take advantage of other persons tilt problem.
Usualy when i double up someone else is losing hard and is tilting. An when i thiought i cought him again he kick my butt hard enough to take back all that he lost. And i have to worry to not loose what i won to the other high stack at the table.

i had problems playing deepstack, but as soon as i got ptr3 i decided to start at 2nl playing 200BB deep, and it worked great because i was winning at a higher rate than i was with 100BB deep. especially at micros there are plenty of fish who make a big stack with any 2 cards getting lucky, now these guys are the ones who are going to donate, because they think they are god, they will try to push you around, playing like 50% of their hands, and you got to make them pay and they will eventually.

as for set vs set, i usually go broke, on a dry board, unless i am against some tight arse dude on who i have like 500 hands and he is running numbers like 8/6 or something, and all of a sudden he dicides to go crazy and bet pot on all streets, even so i might still pay.

No new thread needed about set over set. Even Keith Sexton often mentions ur supposed to go broke there.... Vince would have gone broke before it got to set over set........

It happens several times a year to those of us who play constantly. FP's story about Chuck laying down his baby set amazes me, but then it was Chuck, and his reading abilities are well known. I would also guess Deb's jugular was busting at the seams, and her red hair was aflame!

I can only remember laying down a set twice, once was correct, I had JJJ and villain turned KKK. Lucky nitfold on my part. Second time I thought the villin rivered a flush. Wrong.

if you are not going broke with a set you are playing wrong. Period.
You cant give villain narrow enough range, especially not in micros in order to justify a set, he could be playing a very wide assortment as shit like its the nuts or just because he feels like playing it.
You got a set, play for stacks.

obviously if the board is monotone 5 6 7 8 and its multi way you might be able to find a fold button in there somewhere.

I find that forgetting about your own stack size when considering starting hands (apart from low pocket pairs) is the best way to do it - I would never, ever leave a table where I have a nice big stack because it means I've got everyone else on the table covered, so if they go all in and I've got a monster more profit for me

Woaaahh. You should never try and forget about your stack size, you should always be thinking about it. Your stack size determines the value of starting hands and also how you should play a hand.

Your stack size and that of your opponents is all important.

fyp

It's the smallest of the remaining stacks that's actually important.

Fair enough, and thinking about it I do agree - I completely disagree with my own post now!

A better thing to say would be I forget about the value of my stack - I just think about it as chips. That way I'm not scared of losing it and I make the right calls.

I took some of this advice to the tables last and stuck around with a 190bb stack. I was opening my starting range again but this time trying to isolate and push others around. It worked out well, now only if I can consistently double my stack......

In hold'em, rarely.

In omaha I'll routinely throw away bottom set when facing pressure from non-maniacs.

Same problem man. I never fold sets unless there is a huge straight or flush possibility on the flop.

Low set is so far ahead in the long term it makes no sense to fold. You still have an edge over straight and flush draws. You should slow down on high connected flop and/or flush board on flop. Bet the pot and if you are raised you usually have been had. I don't see a fold helping your long term winrate against another set, since players play fast with top pair and two pair hands which is what you want to beat.

I'm always gonna go broke set over set unless a four to a flush/straight comes on the board or something... that's what BRM is for, to cushion your bankroll against bad beats.

Recently I had the 22 on that exact board and feel I could have folded even though folding sets, especially at 6max, is uh, not good. The flop action went check/bet/I raise/ then either reraise/shove or shove/call before getting back to me. The check/3bet was a reasonably tight player who would be setmining alot and had called a raise preflop. Two pair hands weren't in his range and overpair very unlikely imo...so on a rainbow uncoordinated board after simple raise and calls action preflop that almost has to be a set. I timebank/called to see I had third best set, heh. That's the only time I can recall seriously considered folding a set on a board where made straights or flushes weren't possible (that would be on later streets). The three way action made it pretty clear I was beat, wouldn't be able to narrow hands down nearly as much if it was heads up to the flop.

I am going broke with a set on a dry board. I don't think many players would fold. Set vs set is very very very rare. If your willing to go broke with a set on a dry flop then you'll be a winner in the long run

folding a set on hand is a no-no definitely for me, unless there are other draws and more than 2 players involved in a pot. i pot bet it to take out other runners. but if i am faced with a higher set... then i would just tell myself that it isn't really for me. i'll take it back again later...

poker is a game with thousands of instances, you need to get to a point where you completely disvalue each instance and look at the mathetically correct decision which are winners in the long run. stats are irrelevant when we look at a 10\100 or even 1000 hand sample, even when we talk about players through hud we always say that stats dont converge after 60-70 hands and probably are not th most accurate indication to what can b expected of them. if you look at sets statistically vs any hand with the inclusion of your fh or quad redraw you can never fold ever.

If it's a flopped set over set, then a dry board, my money's going in 100% of the time.

Rarely can you dream up a reason to fold a dry board set. I would be broke 99.44% of the time there (the other 0.56% is for my quad on the turn Good luck out there...

OMG where you been?!!!?!?!??!

On Topic: Set over set is sick... I'm stacking off everytime.

THe simplest way to not go broke with set over set is to fold if reraised with a set. You might also want to check-fold if the flop is called on a dry board.

Following that stratagy will ensure that you dont go broke with set over set.

Unfortunately following that strategy will also reduce your earnings form sets and make it difficult to get value form any TPTK hands.

It probability reduces your ability to bluff too as if you fold sets and under to any action then the times you bet people can fold very easily.

You really have to consider your whole stratagy and not just the instances where you lose set over set.

In a 100bb game there simlly isnt enough infomation to make the fold PROFITABLy, i.e. yes if you start folding sets when you feel there might be a higher set out there you will obviously not loose as many times with set over set, the downside is that most of the time a set is the best hand so some of these folds will be made incorrectly and you will fold the best hand more often than you correctly fold set over set.

The result is that your winrate goes down by trying to avoid these situations.

So unless your opponent shows you his cards , you just cannot profitably make this fold in a 100bb game.

I think I go broke. Dry set, yum yum, but, I have been there before and wonder if I could have done something different. The simple answer is no. Chalk it up to experience, and, move on to your next set.

i would almost certainly go broke. hopefully with correct BRM (min. 20 BI of 100BB) it shouldn't cause too much trouble