Set mining almost impossible to play with a stack of 50BB or less?

In this thread the following comment was made:

1. Is it right to assume that BB means Big Bets, and not Big Blinds
2. Do you agree with what was said
3. Why do you need that big a stack for set mining

1. no
2. depends
3. Implied odds. I think we both aggree that if you have 5 big blinds, calling a 3x big blind raise with 33 hoping to set would be stupid. If we miss, we lose 3 big blinds, but if we set, which happens about 1 in 9, the MOST we can win is 5 big blinds. I'm not even going to work out our ev because it is so obviously negative.

#2 is based on whether our opponent will stack if we set (or how likely it is they will, we can never know without seeing their cards) or how much on average we expect to take if we set.

1. BB's = big blinds

2. Yes I agree b/c of answer to no 3.

3. Implied odds. The chances of hitting a set is around 7/1 so if you call a standard 4 x bb raise your only getting your only getting like 1.5/1. so therefore it's a bad call in itself. But the reason your calling is implied odds, ie what money you will make, assuming villain will pay you off, on later streets, preferably with his stack. If you are calling a 3-bet with a med pp to set mine then you will need a full stack to make it a profitable decision b/c 50 bb's will not be enough therefore your making a -ev call. Don't forget making the right calls is all based on getting the right price for our money with that call, if we don't then we have to factor in implied odds and that is was set mining is about.

Hope that makes sense. If not someone with better explanation skilz will be around soon!

50 BB is the definite borderline for set mining to be profitable. We want implied odds of 12:1 when we're looking at a set or fold hand. So if EP raises to 4x the big blind we need to expect to get 48x the big blind when we hit our set, so 50bb is as close as we want to be to call a single 4x bb opener and hope for a set.

I think I read somewhere Billy that the reasons we need approx 10-12/1 to set mine are for the times we hit and don't get paid fully, I hope I'm correct with that?

The 12:1 number factors in the times when we stack off with a losing set as well as those times we don't get paid. 12:1 comes from people much smarter than myself so that's the number I look for when I'm making the decision on weather to make a call and hope for a set or just throw the pp away.

Good thread on set mining here.

Your odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1, or one in every eight and a half times.

50 cards available for 3 card flop:

1st card: 2/50 chance of set
2nd card (if miss 1st): 2/49
3rd: 2/48

Thus chance of not hitting set is: 48/50*47/49*46/48 = 47*46/(50*49)
= 0.8824

Thus chance of set is 1-0.8824 = just under 12%

Now because of rake and other considerations (losing to a higher set or getting outdrawn), you need to have effective implied odds of about 12-15x the bet size you call to make it worthwhile to call. So if your opponent (or you) has 50BB and the bet to you is 5xBB, then set mining is -EV, but if effective stacks are 75BB or more (for a 5xBB bet), then it is almost certainly profitable if you'll get paid off.

There are MANY other factors, but those are the basics.

The one flaw is though how often do you stack someone when you hit your set? I mean you can sometimes tell if an opponent has a monster and hopefully will pay you off if it's a really tight player, but most of the time a PFR could be a blind-steal. Of course you'll also win the pot some times when you don't set, but the point is that you can't expect to stack very often even if you set. Multi-way pots are always good though for pocket pairs first off because of the more chips in the pot and secondly the odds one player will hit something slightly worse than your set is much greater.

As I usually raise by 3 big blinds, then presumably I only need my opponent to have 36 BB for it to be worth set mining - or is it 1+3=4x12=48
Why would I need 50 big blinds to consider playing suited connectors

The ideal line is to have 100BB's as when you hit your set and win a full stack this makes up for the times you don't, plus you want to maximise your best hands and win the max amount.


With SC's the general theory is the same as set mining. You want a full stack b/c if you hit the flop hard ie, flush draw, str8 draw, 2pr you want to win the full amount. Your not calling raises with sc's to hit top pair, you want to hit a mega flop so your almost playing for stacks. I personally don't play them as often as I do when I'm set mining, but thats just me.

The comment was directed at me. My question was about buy-ins. Saying that I like to buy in for 60% of the max. Thats 60 BB (Big Blinds!).
I really dont feel like im missing out on anything. I still set mine, call the suited connectors when im in position to do so. The only time i see that it hinders me is when i do actually go all in and win. I win a lil less.

So, I disagree respectfully.

If your just calling a raise of 4 x BB to set mine with 60BB's stack, then as has previously been said you are just about getting the required odds to do so. If you are calling a 3 bet pf then you are making a fundamental mistake in doing so. It's not a mathematically correct to do so. It's a -EV play.

Whilst short stacking certainly has it's merits, in the long term, you have to be missing out on so much +EV, by not maximising your best hands.

I agree With Jagsti answer. im to lazy to answer em myself lol

That's probably down to me not playing them properly, then. I tend to limp with low suited connectors, and small pocket pairs, trying to see the flop cheaply.

Quote for emphasis.

short stacking only has real merit if you significantly suck at "deepstack" (100bb) play imo. yes, one can play a shortstack strategy that is essentially "unexploitable" but, except maybe at the pretty high levels, there are so many bad players that, if you at all know what you're doing, you're missing out on a lot more money by not playing full stacked

So you can only really do set mining at a cash table if you have bought in for the max and then won...

What does having won have to do with it?

100 big blinds is plenty to set mine, and usually you can even shorter at around 50bbs or deeper.

Oh sorry, I thought the tables I played at were $1 max buy-in and 1 cent SB/2 cent BB - but I could be wrong, I often am!

In a cash game I'll limp in with any pocket pair. If I'm raised, then not so much.