"Run it twice"

Anyone else watch High Stakes Poker on GSN and see them "run it twice" all the time? What's the deal with this? Isn't it usually after the players have seen the others cards that they decide to do this? Why would the person in the lead agree to it? These are gamblers!?!?! Right?? I get it that it's a lot of money and anything can happen but if you are in the lead why decrease your odds of winning out right? I guess it's hard to know for sure without being at the table but I'm pretty sure I would be a "one time" guy myself. What do you think?

Barry Greenstein is a one time guy.

In our home game, I always like to run it twice for a couple of reasons. First, there is that chance you win both boards. Second, it makes things a little more exciting. I made a post in the PA vs Robl thread about how I ran my AK vs QQ twice against my buddy and spiked an ace on both boards.

it depends on the amount of the money, also if you have favorite of 3 to 1, if you run it twice u probably will win both times, so the risk is if you run it once that u got un-lucky, anyway they sometimes do it because they know the guy they are playing with and there are sometimes that you can't look him in the eyes and say "NO". one more reason is if you be in such situation in the future you would want some help.

It reduces variance, and that's about it.

/thread.

Yeah, it reduces the swings.

If it's a $300k pot and you're 66% to win, that 1/3 will hit a lot, and you'll get NOTHING (despite your 66% equity in the pot). That sucks.

If you run it twice, your equity doesn't change, but you're giving your advantage a better chance of getting something rather than nothing. The disadvantage is that it gives his weaker hand a better chance at hitting.

So instead of winning 2/3 of the time and surrendering a heart-crushing defeat 1/3 of the time, you win it all fewer times, split more times, and lose a *lot* fewer times. But you still average about 66% of the pot in the long run.

SP knocked it out of the park with his answer.

Ethan... I get if you are behind. In your AK v QQ example your the one looking for help so it makes sense to talk the other guy into running it twice.

SP... love that answer. The math behind it especially but also, the aspect of knowing the guy so you throw him a bone. Never thought of that.

Yeah, of course I wanted to run it twice! lol. But we both agreed to it after getting it all in preflop and not knowing what each other had. This particular person and I also run it twice almost everytime we have an all in.

[quote=AR Dave 2008;1362361]Ethan... I get if you are behind. In your AK v QQ example your the one looking for help so it makes sense to talk the other guy into running it twice.

The only reason you want to "talk the other guy into it" is to lower variance.

Neither side gains any advantage weather ahead or behind until after the results have concluded.


Snow

Snowmobiler...

I'm not saying you're wrong...but I think the guy that's behind gains an advantage to run it twice since it increases his chances of sucking out the card he needs. No? I wish I knew the math behind this but it seems logical?

Anyone?

If you have 33% equity in the $100 pot = $33

If you run it twice,you have 33% equity for half the pot = $16.50
You have 33% equity for the other half the pot = $16.50

For a total of: 33% or $33

Its $33 either way

The only advantage is that it lowers the variance (or swings if its easier to understand)


Snow

When running it twice (never done it myself) do the cards from the first "run" stay in the deck for the second one?

Sammy,

From what I've seen on TV, when players decide to run it twice, they do the flop, turn and river... then using the remaining deck without a shuffle or anything put out another board.

So... with said, Snowboarder... I'm not sure I see it the same way you do. Again, I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying what about this...

Let's say player one has AK off and player two has QQ. We call it a coin flip but isn't it like 54/46 or something? They reveal and player one seeing he's behind talks player two into running it twice. So, player one needs to catch an A or K. Here's where I need help, I'm new to this and it's been about 15 years since I had a stat class in college. Doesn't he have about a 42% chance of catching his over card running it once but running it twice it goes to 78%? I get what you are saying with your 33% equity example but doesn't that leave off the fact that it's all or nothing if they run it once. So, I'm saying I'm trying to look at it mathematically from player twos perspective of getting all the pot or only half the pot?

I totally appreciate your input and everyone else's. I love this site. I love learning. I'm not trying to be a smart ass or a dumb ass.... just trying to learn.

Thanks...

Dave

Following calculations are for Dave's scenario where community cards from the first run are not used in the second run.

The odds AKo vs QQ are 43 : 57

In one play 43% of the time AKo gets all the money and QQ gets nothing, 57% of the time the other way around.

During the first run the most common situations are:
30% A/K hit and Q didn't -> 39 : 61 in the second round
4.8% AK hit and Q didn't -> 33.5 : 66.5
3.2% AA/KK hit and Q didn't -> 33.5 : 66.5
---------------
38% noone hit -> 44 : 56
10% Q hit and A/K didn't -> 47 : 53
6% Q hit and A/K hit -> 42 : 58

Other outs are 1% or less, so I didn't take them in account because it's too much work :P.

Due to QQ needing far less outs to win it's chances in the second round don't diminish much when it wins the first round, odds to win the second round are 44 : 56.
When AK wins the first round it will have used a bunch of its outs, so it can't use those outs in the second round, which means odds are reduced to 38 : 62.

So running twice for a $100 pot will result in:
16.3% win/win for AKo
26.7% win/lose for AKo
25.1% lose/win for AKo
31.9% lose/lose for AKo
Total: 42.2$ for AKo and 57.8$ for QQ (vs $43 : $57 in a single run)

So running twice and not reusing the cards is bad for whatever hands needs most outs to win.

In tournaments you might want to run twice anyway when you have the smaller stack and are all in, because running twice drastically cuts the chances of you getting kicked out of the tournament.

I don't think you'd ever be allowed to run it twice in a tournament for a couple of reasons, most notably because other people have a vested interest in every hand.

Try telling this to Patrick Antonious ROFL
http://www.cardschat.com/f53/plo-cas...bl-run-165375/ (http://www.cardschat.com/f53/plo-cash-antonious-vs-robl-run-165375/)

I had to LOL

Snow

If you run it twice after the flop,what ever the percentage is before you turn over any cards is what it is for the hand. The equity you have in the pot is what it is.Over very large #s it will work out exactly what ever the percentage is when the decision to run it twice is made,

What you are getting at is, you will have lower swings to your bankroll because alot of the time you are going to split it up,and that will be in proportion to the odds on the hands when the bet is made.


I hope this helps


Snow

Thanks all for the input.

Eeyore... awesome job on the math.

Snowmobiler and others... all great converstaion.

I love this site.

A good example of it is a cash game with Patrick Antonious and Jamie Gold.

I saw it on youtube so see if you can find it.

Jamie gold was crushed on the turn and was all in with KKK.Patrick had a straight and i think about $750000 in the pot.

Now u would think that Patrick would just like to see the river and skoop the pot but they decided to run it 3X.

The first a Q came and paird the board and Gold made a full house
The secont was a 3 which again paird the board so 2/3 to Gold
The third time Patrick won it.

Variance is a bitch

Try and find it,I cant i am at work but it is worth watching.

Lazmansa

When I plugged the various 1st boards in via pokerstove, my answers were slightly different for the outcomes on the 2nd board. I've stuck my numbers into your original post in bold.

I don't know the accurarcy of the weighted values, i.e. 30% A/K hits and Q doesn't, and honestly don't feel like thinking about it.

However, these new %'s for the 2nd board may be what you needed to reach what should have been the final conclusion, that EV is +/- 0 when running it twice rather than favoring either player.