Recognizing sets

(Disclaimer: This is info I've gained from personal observation. I did not conduct any statistical studies or wade through tens of thousands of hand histories. And, as always, there are no "always" rules in poker.)

As someone who plays SNGs and MTTs almost exclusively, I feel one of the worst things to run into is a set. I used to routinely stack off to them with big overpairs or top pair/top kicker. It sucks in a cash game but it's obviously devastating in any kind of tournament.

Over time (especially the last 2 years) I've noticed certain clues that, to me at least, make a lot of sense in terms of poker playing and human nature.

Simply put, when someone has a huge hand they generally want to make as much as possible off of it. When someone has a hand that is perhaps marginal, but offers outs, they generally would prefer to win it right now, getting a smaller reward by driving their opponent away.

These betting patterns are only fairly reliable (say 80% plus) when it's early in a tournament and stacks are deep.

Overall, I've found these betting patterns most significant when they come in the form of a checkraise.

Sets: I raise from any position with AA and am called by one of the blinds. The flop comes "safe" with rainbow rags. The player first to act checks and I c-bet 3/4 of the pot, only to be checkraised the minimum or, depending on stack sizes, the pot. To me, this is a set. Granted, depending on my player reads/notes (if I have any early on) I may call. And depending on the size of the raise I may still call, but always with the thought in mind that I'm likely behind. Still, my first thought is "set". Do I get bluffed off hands? I'm sure I do. But I'm also sure I've dodged many a bullet.

As a side note, if we're further into the tournament and the caller's stack is fairly small, you can be assured you're dealing with a set. Anytime a shortstack is obviously "milking" you he's got a monster.

Draws: Same preflop raise and call but the flop is rags (or perhaps one facecard) but two of the rags are of the same suit, say the flop is Qs, 7h, 4h. I cbet my AA and am checkraised allin. Now I suspect a draw, most likely a flushdraw. Online, at the lower levels, this can be anything from AhQh to 6h5h, to JhTh. (True, it might also be AQ,KQ,QJ as some players will play these the same way.) There's no way to know obviously, but this is rarely a monster hand of any sort and I call or fold based on a different perspective.

I'll admit, none of this is guaranteed. But it works for me and I thought I'd pass it on.

True, the guy with the set rarely goes all-in off the flop unless its heads up and there are obvious flush and straight draws on the board. I tried to milk the set the other day and got screwed by the flush. In cash games its usually the raise on the turn that makes bells go off in my head. Nothing says 'I gotcha" like a check raise on the turn. Good info though, thanks!

Your analysis seems mostly correct to me. As a bonafide set miner my first instinct is to check or slowplay the flopped set, with a set friendly board, so I can trap my opponent for the big bucks at the end. However after being burned by allowing my opponent to grow a str8 too many times with too many free cards I now bet out a lot more then I used to if the board looks coordinated or is flushing.

Good info, thanx.

Or someone once named it 'smell' the set, whatever that means.

Ok, I know what it means...

I would ask the OP, good post, but, how do you play flopped sets?

Recognizing sets, and playing them. Interests me. lol.

Let's DEFINE "set":

ppX has a X on the board. Not trips. This is very important. If you make trips, someone else can have same trips, and kicker issues ensue...

When you 'make' a set. No one else can have 'trips', not enuff cards.

Need to know difference. One can have trips, so can others. Hit a "set", no one else can have trips of that card value.

So where does that leave us???? To make set, one needs a pp.

That leads one into 'set mining', I believe.

I tend to follow a pretty simple formula for sets...I bet out.

Let's say I'm in the BB (happened last night) and a tight player raises from MP. His range is going to be pretty narrow...say AA-TT, AK, AQs...maybe AJs depending on how tight he is. I had 55 in the BB and flat called. Flop came AT5 rainbow. I bet out 1/2 pot...he reraised allin and it was a done deal as he never improved on AK.

Of course, I tend to bet a lot of pots I have an interest in (mid pair in a limped pot, draws, etc) so that helps disguise things.

I have noticed really tight players hate to be challenged. They've waited so long for a hand, by golly, they're going to fight like hell to win. Best candidates ever to be stacked by a set.

One general comment: when you attempt to read villain's hand, you should not try to put him on a specific hand like a set. You should always try to consider the whole range of hands he could be playing and how much equity your hand has against this range of hands.

It's extremely unusual that you can pinpoint the exact hand a villain has. Guessing his range correctly and how you fare against it is where the real money is.

Belgo: I'm sure I'm wrong many times (I play a lot of SNGs and MTTs), but my general observation is a guy with a set wants to milk it for as much as he can, a guy on a draw wants you to go away.

If I raise AK and the flop is KT5, a guy with KQ or KJ is much more likely to lead out than checkraise. If he gets re-raised he knows he's probably facing a better K. If he checkraises the K to my c-bet then he's pretty ballsy and is gathering info at a much higher price. That's a less likely play and the fact I have one of the Ks makes it less likely he has one. I have seen this play in cash games but very rarely in any kind of tournament.

Nothing is foolproof. I just thought this would be a helpful observation for people playing SNGs and MTTs.

Oh I actually think you're quite correct about this. It is quite true when stacks are not too deep, so mostly true in SNGs and fast MTTs.

When you do play deep, like in cash games where stacks are 100bb or more and in the very early stages of a tournament, though, both sets and draws will tend to play similarly, because

- sets need to bet big (close to pot-sized) on all streets in order to play for stacks by the river without the need to overbet.
- draws need to bet big to get fold equity

So even though the reasons for it are different, the observed behaviour is similar. And good players in tough games will often make sure they play both types of hands exactly the same way in order to prevent you from reading them.

Therefore the best way to look at hand reading is to consider that villain's range can include sets and aggressively played draws, and then figure out how your hand does against that range. Also, when considering ranges, you can try to figure out how many draws and how many sets are possible and weight it according to the combinatorics.

There are cases to me where they are easier to spot than others...the top pair-top kicker thing is rough depending on the scenario, if I'm holding A-10 in late position in a raised pot on a board of 10-6-2 with say 2 clubs and a player from early position makes a pot sized bet...then a Qd falls on the turn and obviously does not put the flush out there yet the player is not deterred by the overcard and fires again I'm now thinking of 3 hands being most likely, Q-10, or a set of 6s or 2s...this is a scenario where you could then min raise the turn...most likely if your opponent has a set he is going to come back over the top....a case where you're holding A-K and the flop is K-6-2 its going to be much harder to get away from the hand but again by raising you can increase your chances...if your opponent leads out here you should put in a raise to find out whats going on...because if you don't and the Ace hits on the turn (or even worse a K) you're going to be in a world of trouble since you probably are not getting away from the hand at this point....you can fold A-K on the flop if you raise and then are faced with a substantial re-raise.

Good points. It is, in fact, much harder to get away from the hand when he's betting out/into you. The only defense there is to raise him, folding to a reraise. Expensive, but still better than busting. I've found most of the players at my level ($5) try to be tricky by checkraising when out of position. That's the "tell" I'm looking for.

verbalkint... great name first off. i lvoe that character, life of david gale was another great kevin spacey movie. now onto the poker tells of a set. i dont really have any other then the check raise on the turn or on the flop. Im still the donk who usually stacks off or hopefully for me turns a scare card that makes me fold my hand.

Its really hard to read a set and its even more hard to put down a hand which is AA KK QQ JJ when the flop comes out of rags. Thnx for the info. I should remember this.

and what about when you play the set just as you play any top pair??

...calling small bets, check-calling, etc...

I have done this before and worked great (not all the the time works, but its a different strategy), say playing versus a aggressive/aggressive player, or a calling station

vanpampus:

If the pot remains small I may end up calling all the way down. A lot depends on my player reads, etc. The one thing that never changes, though, is that at some point the set-holder is going to try and get all my money. I've been known to call all the way as long as my stack can afford it.

One thing I've found that works against thinking opponents when I'm the set-holder is to donk allin on the river. It looks like such a bluff that, every now and then, you'll nail a guy holding top two pair.

Sets are just flat out tough to read but a generalized counter-strategy based on betting patterns is at least somewhat reliable. As I said, I've certainly been wrong on this but it's my general guideline.

These are some good tips, especially helpful to me as I mostly play SNG's. Cheers Mate