Pot odds: daniel negreanu's hand in 2006 WSOP main event. AcKd vs. QdQc

Hey folks, I just have a quick question about pot odds of a hand i saw a moment ago.

Daniel Negreanu has Ac Kd, while Yarlagadda holds Qd Qc in a flop of:

4c 8c 9c

The probability of each person winning is shown by the WSOP as 49% and 51% for Daniel Negreanu and Yarlagadda respectfully.

However, I counted 14 outs for Daniel Negreanu to make his winning hand (three kings, three Aces, and 8 clubs).

Using my quick method of calculation, i did this:

2(14 outs x 2) = 56%

So shouldn't the percentages be in Negreanu's favour with 56%, while Yarlagadda is underdog with 44%?

Is something wrong with my method of probability calculation? If not, what accounts for such a big difference in percentages between my results and that of the WSOP's percentages?

Thanks for all input

Not sure your method is dead on. The 2x(# of outs) is meant to be an approximation.

But assume for a second it was perfect. TV poker tables have that pesky edit ability, and may know that player 'C' folded a club, thus 4 fewer outs. Add in some post production stuff, and perhaps find out that both the other Q's, and a few other clubs were gone, and presto. 51-49!

hey dj11, thanks for your reply.
I understand now.

I am aware of 2x(2xouts) is an approximation method.
From your context, I am getting that you use a different method of probability calculation? if so, I'd be glad to know.
Thanks

pokerstove.com

That's right.

On TV poker they get to see everyone elses' hole cards. So if a bunch of people folded clubs, the flush draw is a lot less likely. And if a bunch of people folded "everything but clubs the flush draw is *more* likely.

Then there's also stuff like not counting the King of clubs twice (can't count it as a King out if you count it as a Club out).

This is right, that brings you down to
13 outs, which using the estimate puts you at 52% and then there are of course the times when a Q and an A or non-club K hit, tilting the edge slightly more to the Q. So even if they don't take into account the other folded cards those two could be major factors, one in you just making a mistake in counting the outs and two in the fact that the A and non-club K outs are not quite pure outs as the QQ hand then has a redraw to 2 outs.

From what I see, 13 outsx2 (the turn and the river) = 26x2=52%--- BUT, Who really knows who has what! I think Danial should have folded AND the other should have gone ALL IN! Giving Danial something to think about! But for only God knows why OR how he does it, Daniel just seems to know WHAT his opponents have in their hands! He is brilliant!!!!!

Thanks everyone, I can't believe I made the mistake of double counting the clubs.

Q♣ is gone too (in opponent's hand).

The 4X rule breaks down when you have over 8 outs. A closer approximation (although, it is still an approximation) is to subtract one for every out above 8 outs. For example, 14 outs would be 56 - 6 = 50%. 9 outs would be 36 - 1 = 35%. Not exact, but closer.