Pot commitment and Overpairs

Table dynamics: Unknown villain, no history no real reads. Full ring micros (<25NL) effective stack sizes 100bb you've been on table 3-4 orbits.

Scenario #1 You are UTG and are dealt AA. You flop an overpair on a wet board, possible four flush,straight etc. and you are OOP so you bet out to protect your hand and charge for draws. Villain calls and the turn is a blank. If you bet out you will have put approximately 25% of your stack into the pot and if villain re-raises you, the decision to stay in the hand means you are committing your stack with a single pair and OOP. If you check here and villain takes initiative and instead of a 1/2 pot bet makes a pot-sized bet same result. Under these conditions is the best line to bet/fold the turn even though a certain percentage of time villain is semi-bluffing with a draw?? Is this just the price you pay for being OOP? Furthermore say you blink and check instead of betting the turn and villain checks behind.The turn is another blank and you make a 1/3 pt value bet on the River and villain shoves. Do you risk calling here thinking he maybe bluffing with a missed draw even though he could have 2 pair (that's assuming he doesn't check behind with a set?)

Scenario #2 You are UTG and are dealt AA. You flop an overpair on a ragged rainbow 9 high board, Since you are either way ahead or way behind you check. Villain bets and you call. The turn is a blank. You lead out and villain re-raises. Do same rules apply here? Bet/ fold the turn even if villain might have a smaller overpair or A9?


I'm trying to not go broke with overpairs.

You're playing 2nl, go broke with your overpairs. Seriously you'll make WAY more than you lose. Also why would you ever check AA on a ragged 9 high flop? Bet for value. You should want to bet/bet/bet almost always. Build the pot, make money.

Scenario #1 if you think villain bets his entire range on the turn if you check, maybe try check/shoving the turn occasionally. If he's a passive type player just keep betting and only worry about folding if he raises the turn.

First off Hillbilly suffers fools gladly, great EI line pull.

Yeah you are giving away too much. You got the big cards don't be afraid of losing with them. I see a lot of players with AA-JJ who feel they are just doomed to lose, almost a reverse donkey approach and are too careful/timid with these hands. Long run, put your bets in and don't wait to be pushed out in these situations. Don't look for a reason to run.

Scenario #1
I will try the check/ shove, I guess he's more likely to bluff/ semi-bluff here than the other scenario

Scenario #2
If you bet and he has nothing he folds and you collect a small pot. If he calls because he paired the 9 you might win a medium pot. If he calls because he has a set or two pair you are crushed and lose a big pot. So 66% of the time you win 4bb= 2.64bb. 5% of the time he calls the flop bet and maybe a 2nd street for value for say 16bb= 1.6bb another 5% of the time he is a donkey and calls 3 streets because has a smaller overpair or thinks a split pair of 9's is the nuts you win his stack so 5% of 100bb = 5bb. 13% of the time you lose 100bb when he has a set or 2 pair or -13bb and 1% you flop set over set or set over two pair and stack him for +1bb so expected value for getting all in with an overpair seems to me to be -2.76bb.

This might seem stupid but what is EI?

What? People will call you with all kinds of crap on a board like this. Overs call. 9x calls. All pocket pairs call. Stop projecting your own nitty self onto your opponents. They're not here to fold away pairs that might be good. Just keep betting.

If it were that easy wouldn't I be doing better than 3BB/100? (It was over 4BB until I tilted away 5+ buy ins last week!)

For the last time:

STOP WORRYING ABOUT YOUR SHORT-TERM WINS/LOSSES. YOU PROBABLY WEREN'T AS GOOD AS YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE WHEN YOU WERE TEARING IT UP AND YOU'RE PROBABLY NOT AS BAD AS YOU THINK YOU ARE RIGHT NOW.

I'm not referring to the recent 15k hands where variance and my idiocy have come into play, I was just making a comment about my overall win rate for the whole sample which is now at 95k hands at 2nl. Do you know what a very good winrate for 2nl at 100,000 hands would be? I'm at 2.79BB/ 100 but I think tilt is responsible for .5BB/ 100 so I could be a little higher.

p.s. thanks for suffering me gladly!

+1 to everything wvh is saying.

Hand 1, usually fold to the raise on the turn.

Hand 2, if you are heads up with him, I'd say bet about 60% of the time. The checks aren't because we are scared, but to let him catch up or take a stab at the pot w/ nothing. He's probably only 8% to win or drawing dead.

@FX20736

I have noticed, over a period of time, that you have a tendency to overthink things way too much... to a point that isnt even helpful to you.

Your inquisitive nature is good and when you get to higher stakes, this should serve you well.

just try and keep in mind that you are playing 2NL. Most of the questions you ask dont really apply to beating 2NL (which is what you are playing!).

Just play tight and expect people to make horrible calls, sometimes they have the nuts but more often they do not! Try not to overcomplicate things.