Is it possible to run above allin ev at the micros???

#1 15th March 2011, 1:10 AM

as a good player is it possible to run above allin ev at the micros ?. as if you are good you are getting it in ahead nearly all of the time in an allin situation so unless you run like god you are guna get sucked out on now and then hence running below allin ev.

i ask this as in the last 23k hands over the last 7 days i am running 13 buyins below ev at 10nl so $130 below allin ev.

is a better way to look at this allin ev stat, that if you are running below allin ev you are playing well as you are getting it in ahead most often?

#2 15th March 2011, 1:27 AM

Or you could just not look at it at all cause all it will do is make you sad. It also doesn't accurately represent how you're playing, it doesn't show all facets of luck.

Also it makes you sad.

#3 15th March 2011, 1:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papatango123

as a good player is it possible to run above allin ev at the micros ?. as if you are good you are getting it in ahead nearly all of the time in an allin situation so unless you run like god you are guna get sucked out on now and then hence running below allin ev.

i ask this as in the last 23k hands over the last 7 days i am running 13 buyins below ev at 10nl so $130 below allin ev.

is a better way to look at this allin ev stat, that if you are running below allin ev you are playing well as you are getting it in ahead most often?

7 days. How many hands?? Sometimes you run above AIEV sometimes below and sometimes neck and neck. Over a large sample it will probably even out. Below is 75k hands worth.

#4 15th March 2011, 2:09 AM

no, every single player online is unlucky and makes incorrect decisions

#5 15th March 2011, 2:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xdeuceswild81xx

no, every single player online is unlucky and makes incorrect decisions

only because online is rigged.

#6 15th March 2011, 2:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fx20736

only because online is rigged.

RIGGED I TELL YOU!!!1!!111!

#7 15th March 2011, 2:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyChippy

RIGGED I TELL YOU!!!1!!111!

rare form tonight, Chip.

Had a few Newcastles have ya?

#8 15th March 2011, 2:30 AM

i thought that was a given fx....if chip says it, it must be true

#9 15th March 2011, 2:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fx20736

rare form tonight, Chip.

Had a few Newcastles have ya?

Sober as a post.

#10 15th March 2011, 2:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyChippy

Sober as a post.

My condolences.

My 1st boss out of college told me that he felt sorry for teetotalers because when they woke up that was the best they were going to feel all day.

#11 15th March 2011, 2:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xdeuceswild81xx

i thought that was a given fx....if chip says it, it must be true

imo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fx20736

My condolences.

I know man, Monday's are the best night out in Manchester.

EDIT: Read your edit and lolled, true story.

#12 15th March 2011, 2:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fx20736

My condolences.

My 1st boss out of college told me that he felt sorry for teetotalers because when they woke up that was the best they were going to feel all day.

Isnt that a Dean Martin quote?

Edit: Lol. I also just realized this isnt the chat thread. Sorry for teh derail papaT.

#13 15th March 2011, 2:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fx20736

7 days. How many hands?? Sometimes you run above AIEV sometimes below and sometimes neck and neck. Over a large sample it will probably even out. Below is 75k hands worth.

23k in the last 7 days 13 bi below ev

over 96k hands at 10nl im running just over 22 buyins below ev

wish i hadnt have looked at it lol

#14 15th March 2011, 2:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papatango123

23k in the last 7 days 13 bi below ev

over 96k hands at 10nl im running just over 22 buyins below ev

wish i hadnt have looked at it lol

I don't even have it on my reports tab, it's retardo.

#15 15th March 2011, 2:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyChippy

imo.

I know man, Monday's are the best night out in Manchester.

EDIT: Read your edit and lolled, true story.

where do u go out in manchester on mondays???

thursday nights in leeds for me

#16 15th March 2011, 2:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papatango123

where do u go out in manchester on mondays???

thursday nights in leeds for me

It's cause Manchester is the best place to go out in the UK except for maybe London. Mondays are sick, thursdays are just as good. Mondays are cheaper though and I'm not in uni on Tuesdays.

#17 15th March 2011, 2:55 AM

was just about to say newcastle went up there 2 weekends ago, the birds are unreal

#18 15th March 2011, 2:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papatango123

was just about to say newcastle went up there 2 weekends ago, the birds are unreal

Haha good shout, famous for it and I'll have to go up sometime. Been to bham, it was pretty cool but don't have tons of experience and don't remember too much. Leeds is kind of like the place people from Manchester go when they want to go out of town for a night/weekend. Good crack.

#19 15th March 2011, 3:03 AM

http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=243510

Quote:

Top UK Nightlife City Survey

A new survey by Luxardo sambuca reveals that northern cities have the most to offer for a top night out. The initiative is one of the first to use social networking sites exclusively for its data capture. Out of 20 cities, Manchester came first and Newcastle followed, based on the number of votes received. Birmingham, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool, London, Nottingham, Plymouth, Wakefield and Wolverhampton (not ranked here) also gained enthusiastic support. Encouraging spontaneity, responses via Facebook and MySpace were sought from 18 to 30 year olds, as they were invited to join the debate and nominate their own city or another. Some 1800 comments were received between April and November 2008.

- Birmingham and Nottingham are easy going, 'something for everyone' cities.

- Edinburgh swung ahead of Glasgow, and respondents rated the Scottish capital's historic beauty as enhancing the night-out experience.

- Leeds has its edgy underground music scene, but Wakefield is Yorkshire's top city for straight-as-they-come genial style, and a sense of safety. Wakefield stands out as the home of diverse influencers who shape Britain for the 18 to 30 year old generation. They include The Cribs, The Mighty Boosh's Julian Barratt and rugby player Mike Tindall, who are proudly adopted by locals as 'Wakefield boys'.

- Liverpool's regeneration has given it new sophisticated options for a night out.

- London provoked the most opinionated comments, as a city of extremes to love or hate.

- Manchester has the best all-time style influencers, and the best music and individual style.

- Newcastle seals its reputation as the best city for a memorable party poker night, but also for its quality entertainment hubs such as Metro Radio Arena, and The Sage in Gateshead.

- Plymouth is the UK's magnet for students. Its easily accessible sun, sea and surf complement the bar scene.

- Wolverhampton's status as a relatively new city was rated for its multi-cultural entertainment, drinking and eating venues. It is tipped as being the next big city to watch.

Respondents were fiercely loyal about their own cities, but top influencers were the diversity of bars and pubs, as well as contemporary personalities associated with the city. Alongside this, Luxardo undertook an education drive with a responsible drinking message. Luxardo plans to run it annually.

Seems like a pretty fair reflection of the UK night-life.

Spoiler

#20 15th March 2011, 6:52 AM

You should be staying close to Ev at all times.

#21 15th March 2011, 7:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALL IN CLUBS

You should be staying close to Ev at all times.

Is that your strategy?

OP read this and you wont bother looking at it again...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...l-luck-823386/

#22 15th March 2011, 3:34 PM

yes it is, if I remember i'll post up my graph later :P

#23 15th March 2011, 3:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALL IN CLUBS

You should be staying close to Ev at all times.

yes, I agree. Running below EV is -EV.

#24 15th March 2011, 3:49 PM

Yeah, possible (although I guess maybe I'm not a good player). I ran way OVER EV at 25nl in about 50K hands when I first deposited to FTP. Rigged for the new guy ldo. 6BB/100 over that sample with an EV adjusted WR of 3BB/100.

#25 15th March 2011, 4:12 PM

If I had to guess, i'd say about 50% of the players run above all-in EV and 50% of the players run below it. Playing style, stakes and any other variable than pure luck are obviously entirely irrelevant.

The only exception would be Monoxide who most certainly runs above all-in EV 100% of the time. He's just that lucky.

#26 15th March 2011, 6:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse

If I had to guess, i'd say about 50% of the players run above all-in EV and 50% of the players run below it. Playing style, stakes and any other variable than pure luck are obviously entirely irrelevant.

The only exception would be Monoxide who most certainly runs above all-in EV 100% of the time. He's just that lucky.

+1

#27 16th March 2011, 4:29 AM

Poker stars loves me

#28 16th March 2011, 5:51 AM

Over 4000 hands in 0.02/0.05 I am apparently about 220BB above where I should be. A good reminder that I'm not as good as I think I am

Still, it is a bit strange. I don't recall having many bad beats when I've gone all-in, nor do I remember having many big comebacks from behind when I've gone all-in so I'm not really sure why there is such a big gap....

#29 16th March 2011, 6:49 AM

25nl
rungood.jpg (http://www.cardschat.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=36859&d=1300254535)

#30 16th March 2011, 7:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by takethepain

Still, it is a bit strange. I don't recall having many bad beats when I've gone all-in, nor do I remember having many big comebacks from behind when I've gone all-in so I'm not really sure why there is such a big gap....

it's called selective memory.

#31 16th March 2011, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse

it's called selective memory.

In our Country people with selective memories are called Republicans and if their memories is not only selective but full of distortions and half truths they are called the tea party poker and if they blatantly lie to advance a racist, gun toting, bible thumping, anti-intellectual, anti-environmental, oligarchical corporatist agenda they are called Fox News Anchors.

#32 16th March 2011, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by takethepain

Over 4000 hands in 0.02/0.05 I am apparently about 220BB above where I should be. A good reminder that I'm not as good as I think I am

Still, it is a bit strange. I don't recall having many bad beats when I've gone all-in, nor do I remember having many big comebacks from behind when I've gone all-in so I'm not really sure why there is such a big gap....

you do not need to have come from behind very often for this to happen. just about any time you are all-in before the river and win (exception: when villain has 0 outs) you "run above EV", even if you were a huge favorite when the money went in. just ignore that stat

#33 16th March 2011, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papatango123

as a good player is it possible to run above allin ev at the micros ?. as if you are good you are getting it in ahead nearly all of the time in an allin situation so unless you run like god you are guna get sucked out on now and then hence running below allin ev.

This is wrong. If you are getting it in good (lets say for example 80/20 favourite) then you can expect to win 4 for every 1 you lose.

Winning 80% of your 80/20's (i.e. neutral ev) is not running like God it is purely a statistical certainty over a long enough time frame.

#34 16th March 2011, 1:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MBC

This is wrong. If you are getting it in good (lets say for example 80/20 favourite) then you can expect to win 4 for every 1 you lose.

Winning 80% of your 80/20's (i.e. neutral ev) is not running like God it is purely a statistical certainty over a long enough time frame.

This.

Because when you get it in as an 80/20 you win 100% of the pot or none of it. If you win 100% 4 times and lose 100% 1 time then your EV is 80% and so is your monies line.

Often you'll be playing well and running well, not having any suckouts but because you're technically winning more than your equity share of the pot you'll begin to run quite far ahead of EV.

EV is stupid don't look at it.

#35 18th March 2011, 12:44 PM

OP obviously does not understand what all-in EV means

Quote:

Originally Posted by papatango123

as if you are good you are getting it in ahead nearly all of the time

OP also does not understand how good poker players play either.

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