Poker odds

Can you be a successful poker player without knowing about or figuring out odds? Do thy matter that much? And if they do, what can you do if you are very mathmatecally challenge?

good post BBB, I don't rely on odds b/c I can't seem to grasp the concept either and am looking forward to those who can simplify it.
I was just afraid to ask.

I am not an odds guru but you must know the generals to have any chance. You can bend them but if you don't know them then how do you know when you cross the line into true gambling mode.

Outs:
take the # of out and multiply by 2. Then multiply by number of cards reamaining. Gives you a general area. This will work on figuring out draws, overs cards hitting, getting your sets etc.

example: You have A 10 and are all-in and get called by JJ. You have 3 As to catch up. 3x2x5=30. You have about a 30% chance to hit your A.


Here are some of the basics that you should just know but you can use the above formula to figure out some as you go.
Flushes:
2 suited hole cards: 10% flop will come with 2 of your suit
you got 4 on the flop: 2x9x2= 36% chance to catch on turn and river
you got 4 on the turn: 2x9x1= 18% chance to catch on river

striaghts:
open ended on flop: 2x8x2= 32% chance to hit on turn and river
open ended on turn: 2x8x1= 16% chance to hit on river
open ended and 2 overs on flop: 2x14(8 for straight + 6 overcards)x2= 48% one of next two cards will help

sets:
PP hitting set on flop: 2x2x3= 12% they hit on flop
PP hitting set by river if all-in: 2x2x5= 20% hitting set

Why use them?
Take these odds and decide of calling the bet is in you best interest. If you only have a 1/3 chance to hit your cards and you have to call a pot size bet then you are only getting 1/2 odds. You will, in the long run, not catch enough to make this a profitable play.

have often thought about this, you read lots on how its an important part of becoming a long term winning player and i can appreciate how and why that works but there is a lot to be said for the psychology of poker and playing the player rather than the cards.

Better understanding the maths involved in poker is an area of my game i know i need to improve but keep putting it off - it was never my favorite subject at school.

i play live with friends a lot and find subtle mind games quite effective although how effective this would be online is debatable!

I'd like to find a whole bunch of test questions for different situations. I keep thinking I understand, but then I'm not sure.

Plus after years of using computers I could use the practice doing the calculations in my head. That part of my brain has thickened to mud after years of non-use.

What are you guys unsure about? I mean, is it how outs relate to odds, or what we mean when we say "six-to-one" or the relationship between percentages and odds, or...?

eg: What were my odds here and should have I called

Attached Images

untitled.JPG (73.5 KB, 149 views)

Nice post, Titans. It`s a complex subject, and that`s about as close as one can get to a brief and clear explanation. +rep.

if you think that a 7 or a 4 will win it for you then you have 6 outs.

easiest way to calculate is to times your outs by 2. its usually a little on the low side 1 or 2 % so you only have about a 14% chance to hit your cards on the river or about 7-1. your pot odds are only 2-1 so you are not getting the odds to call.

after the flop times your outs by 4, after the turn times your outs by 2.

Actually, if he put his opponent on a flush draw, he only has four outs.
---
Im probably just repeating what others have already said...

Outs: Cards that will improve you hand. When counting outs, make sure you arent counting outs what will hurt your hand. Example: Say you have an open ended straight draw, but theres a flush draw showing. If you think an opponent is on a flush draw, then you do not have 8 outs, but only 6. Why? Because 2 out those outs will acutally hurt your hand.

Odd percentages: Titan did a very good job in explaining this. Another way of figuring out the percentage of hitting your outs is...

-On the turn: multiply the number of outs by 4
-On the river: multiply the number of outs by 2
Its not 100% accurate, but its very close.

Hand Odds: Lets say you flop a 4 flush draw. What are the odds of you hitting your hand?

47*[unknown cards] - 9[outs] = 36[dont improve]/9[improve] = 4:1

Pot Odds: pretty simple stuff. $100 pot and its $10 to call. You're getting 10:1 odds.

A nice rule-if the pot odds laying to you are greater than your hand odds, you should consider calling. If its the opposite, you should fold.

Comment, and question.

Some people think you shouldn't look at multiplying by 4 on the turn because there's a good chance you're going to have to bet again on the turn, so just look at each card/betting situation as one time odds.

And question; $100 pot, $10 to call, is this not 11-1 odds as it costs you $10 to win $110 after you call?


I still think I need practice doing the math in my head too. Although that should be simple enough to make up stuff. .. $56 pot, $8 to call, I've got a straight draw, but count the upper card as only 2 outs as they might not be good ...

Valid point. It depends on the table. If you are up against aggressive players then yes, you have to figure your bet will only buy you one card, not two.

True. The total cost of seeing the river (or showdown) is sometimes referred to as effective odds.

No, although this is a common misconception. Odds are used to calculate break-even points, and as such you're looking at profit, not size of the pot. When your opponent bets $10 into the $90 pot, thus giving you 10:1, your profit if you win will not be $110, it will only be $100. Your loss, if you lose, will be $10. That's the relationship the odds show: Profit:Loss. 100:10.

It's easy, then, to make the mistake of discounting the money that you yourself have already put into the pot ("that's not profit, it was me who put that in there") but that's faulty thinking. Money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore; If the pot is $100 it doesn't matter how the money got there. If you win it, it's profit.

One of the first chapters in Small Stakes Hold 'em by Ed Miller has one of the best sections on counting outs I've seen. I recommend it.

To answer the original question, I believe you can be a winning, but not expert, no-limit player without playing by the odds. "Successful" is a term that means different things to different people, though.

agreed, I count my outs and odds before calling, but sometimes, I prefer to depend on my intuition or my read on this person.

The concept used to confuse me a lot, I'm not a maths person either. However, I think understanding the basic will help alot in your decision making and serve to booster your confidence in making that call to a flush. That way, you never doubt that you made the wrong decision. You know that you were right, even though you lost that battle, but the war is yours to win.

Hmm, I feel like part of my intent of that reply went missing. I said "I believe you can be a winning, but not expert, no-limit player" but also wanted to get across the idea that "but you won't stand a snowball's chance in hell at any higher stakes limit tables without it."

Thanks FP. I'm pretty sure my confusion arose from my various readings on websites as well as books. It was probably a early-read website rather than a book that showed how to read odds the wrong way and it stuck with me and I've been unsure ever since. I'll take your word as gospel, as I always do.

i didnt go over implied odds. Im assuming this is what FP was talking about.

I think you can get by without knowing odds so long as you play the right games. I dont know the exact odds nor do i count outs but i have played enough hnds tht i can have a rough idea based on the size of bets too wot to do. It is very rudimentry but it seems to work for me (when i listen to myself). As fp said limit is a game of odds so u cant really play tht but nl i think you can be a very good player without knowing the exact odds of every hnd tho being able to read patterns of play is more important if you dont.

This is a very interesting topic. To answer the original question, I think you can get away with not playing odds all the time. After all, where do you think the saying "play the player, not the cards" came from.

I do play the odds myself because I think it helps with tilt control. When you play hands by the numbers, you are not allowing emotions to get involved in hand decisions. I am certain that there is a significant downside to playing this way but it does work for me.

For you posters that struggle with math, maybe this will help you. I do use the rule of 4 and 2 that has been talked about in here. So if I'm on a flush draw, I know I have 9 outs (2 on the board, 2 in your hand) so I have a 36% chance of hitting on the turn. When the betting comes to me, I'll take the total pot and take 10% of that. So if it's 500 chips, I know that 50 is 10% of that pot. If I need to call a bet less than 175 (36% is 50+50+50+25; actually a bit more but i'm simplifying), I will make that call. If it's above that, I will fold because the odds are not right.

And a lot of the time, the bets you're being asked to call in NL are pot-sized, meaning that you usually have a fairly straightforward decision ("is my hand good or will improve to win, one-time-in-three?"), whereas a lot of the time in limit, you're looking at 7:1, or 9.5:1 decisions where "I'm probably behind" isn't good enough to make the correct decision. This is why limit players that don't know (or don't care) about odds quickly lose their bankroll.

BBB did you get and understand all of that ?

Let me know if you didnt and ill go do a pot odd guide for dummies type thing. The thing that amuses me lots on poker forums, is that if someone starts a thread like this stating that they have a hatred of math, there is sure to be a waft of math related replies to it. Unfortunatlly in a lot, but not all cases its essential.

I got some of it and copied titans answer. His seems to be the simplest form on which to base my question. The reason I asked this was I've been laying down hands and I'm not sure if I should have considering the draws I had and the pot size. I'm going to post some of those hands when I find them for discussion.
Actually a dummy form would be a good thing for this site. I know a lot of people would use it.

Tenbob, I would love to see a guide for dummies like me. I can do it in my head, and I understand how to count my outs, etc., but I am unsure of what are the correct odds to call, etc. I think Medeiros' post has helped a little though. So, if you have a 36% chance of making your hand, you shouldn't call off more than a 36% size of pot bet? Did I read that right...

Basically basically, you have a flush draw on the flop.

The pot is $100 and someone bets $1.

The pot is big, your getting 100-1 ---> You dont need to understand pot odds to be able to call here

The pot is $1 and someone bets $100

The pot is small the bet is big. 1-100 -----> calling with a flush draw is obviously its a mistake to call.

Ok an extreme example, but these two extremes get closer together, your need to understand when to call and when to fold becomes more a math call than a logical one.

As I started reading this I thought to my own self "DJ, try and get a poker odds for dummies type thing going".

I didn't hate math, it was my favorite subject in school, until I hit the Calculus wall. I even aced my inductive logic final. With age however my whippersnapper like mind has dulled to a tongue depressor like edge on math issues.

The bigger reason for me to get Super System was the odds section. Problem there is the intrepretation of those table takes a long time to master.

What I think is needed is a clear narrative of not only quick easy ways to deduce odds, but how those odds relate, and why they are pertinent. It will be the clear narrative part that is the hardest.

After 15 months or so of intense online playing, I have developed an intuitive grasp of the odds. This is where I need to fine tune that grasp. The end result will be that though I could not spout off the odds for any specific situation, I intuitivly know them. Watching Chris Ferguson, math doctorate, do no better than others partly because he seems to rely to much on odds, suggest they are not the be all and end all of play. But no one will deny the importance of long term thinking in poker.

You've got it JQ. Not that I want to confuse anyone but sometimes you may call if pot odds are slightly off if you think you can earn a bet on the river on your made hand. To be honest though, I'm not all that good on explaining implied odds. Maybe someone can help with that explaination.

Let me see if i have that right. Say a pot is 1500 chips. You have a flush draw. (4 cards on flop). What you are saying is that I should call any bet of 540 and less? Then what happens on the turn for the odds?

Isn't this a 36% of hitting on the turn and river combined? A little less than 20% on the turn and another less than 20% or so on the river?

I don't believe this is the case. I use the rule of 4 and 2 that is discussed in Phil Gordon's book. He says multiply outs times 4 on the turn and times 2 on the river to get your odds for each street.

BBB, you've got it right after the flop. Now on the turn, that number is reduced to 18% (9 outs times 2 now)

I dunno medeiros.

Page 178:

"According to this "Rule of Four," I have about a 20% chance of catching a winning hand on the turn or the river."


Then it becomes the "Rule of Two". The difference between the turn and the river is one card, so the percentages are not going to drop in half.

Gordon's "rule of two" is your chance of hitting your hand on the next card. So that holds true if you're on the flop and want to know if you can afford seeing the turn, or if you're on the turn and can afford to see the river.

The rule of four, besides being a weird thrille type book, is your chance of getting your hand in TWO cards. I.e. from flop to river. Not used often, since you rarely get two chances to hit your hand for the price of one, tournament all-in decisions not included.

Thanks Ninelion and FP, I've never seen the 4 and 2 rule explained that way. I guess you could also use "four" if you attempted to raise on the flop to try and get a free card on the turn as well as all in situations.

So FP, since you're more of a limit player, how do you use odds in LHE when you have a flush draw. Do you use 20% on the turn and 20% on the river to determine a call or fold?

I'm posting a hand here just for the odds discussion. I just wanted to see how I figured them out to what the math whizzes do. On each turn what are the odds for calling and why? I also know the comments about folding and all the other yada-yada. I just want to know how odds would figure into this hand. This isn't the greatest one to do it with but it will work.

PokerStars Game #8247939395: Tournament #42068918, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em
No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/02/02 - 18:27:20 (ET)
Table '42068918 4' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: ZacharyPants (1420 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: klitkat (2600 in chips)
Seat 3: annazara (1450 in chips)
Seat 4: newfie4life1 (1820 in chips)
Seat 5: billybuster (3090 in chips)
Seat 6: aknewbie (1420 in chips)