Playing a strong flush draw

Ok

Lets assume that there has been some action preflop, but nothing crazy.

Im holding AKs

The flop isnt paired and gives me a nut flush draw.

My opponent is aggressive and I have position.

He puts in a near pot sized raise.

I figure him for AA, KK or a set.

At present I have only A high.

Now had he gone all in, I would have been getting correct odds to call.

Would I be right in putting him all in seeing as I would have been prepaired to call an all in raise?

depends on whether or not he is able to make tough folds, and what our image is. if there's no chance that he will fold, there's no point in putting him all in. instead, wait to see the next cards (and if you don't make your flush by the river, a few lucky times your opponent will not have gone all-in by then and you can save a few bucks that otherwise he would be taking home because you went all-in on the flop). now that i think of it though, after his pot sized bet, he's going to have hardly any money left (because you said had he gone all in, you would have had the right odds to call), so really there's no way he's going to fold. so i say it doesn't really depend on your opponent, you should just call. if he doesn't bet the turn, and i happen to get nothing by the river, lucky me, i've saved a few bets.

How do you do that? You have supernatural abilities ? That is a super tight range for hand reading on the flop.

Agree.

Also you may should post the board here, and maybe stacksizes..

The potsize bet can also scream for a fold, so maybe he isnt that strong!? Why you think he holds such a big hand?

Like I said, stacksizes, stage of tournament (or was it a cashgame?) would help.

Lets say the stacks are very deep, then why not call to see the turn and maybe knock him out if he cant get away from his hand?

Yes I do.

Its my scenario so Ill figure him for any hand I want!!!

So seeing as he has AA, KK or a set.. is the call correct?

Its hypothetical so if the stack sizes make a difference make some up and say how they effect your decision.

Oh its definately a cash game, not a tournament... didnt think to mention that

Against that range, you don't have a strong flush draw.

ok, why not?

Because the only outs you have in addition to the 9 flush cards are the 3 aces when villain has precisely KK, and when he has a set he does have lots of redraws to a full house.

So the possibility of redraws means I cant just look at the odds and play it because the odds are correct

Given that this is the real question here, I say yes.

You will also be representing the big pair, or set, and will put the screws to villain, giving you an added way to win this pot.

Thats what I was origionally thinking.. The bet is big, but I thought it gives me a ton of fold equity.. maybe enough to put him off a medium sized hand. And if he calls I still have a draw which had he placed the all-in bet I would have had correct pot odds to call anyway.

The reason for the all in rather than a smaller bet is that the money goes in with no further betting.

Obviously he will only call with a hand like a set, but in the LR do you think this play would be + or - EV?

With a nut flush huh ?

I would go all in. Even against a board pair. I'd move the whole table in.

I might lose, and I might win, but what it comes down to is you have to gamble if you want to win.

Keep it in check.

i'm sorry but you still don't make any sense. you put villain on AA/KK/a set and expect to have fold equity by shoving ????????? What part of this range do you think he folds?

Just call on the flop. At this point, that probably looks like a stronger play than the all in, because if he has aces or kings, he could be afraid you're slow playing a set or 2 pair. On the turn, regardless of if you hit your flush, shove.

Just so you know:



Board: Js 8s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.182% 32.18% 00.00% 4779 0.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 67.818% 67.82% 00.00% 10071 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 88, 44 }

Thank you, I was hoping someone would post this.

The idea was the fold equity came into play against pretty much every other hand possible was played but not on the AA KK or set although the AA or KK might fold.

The idea was that against the strong hands the (AA KK and a set) the draw was such that the pot odds would be correct if I called.

So the origional question was if im in a siuation where I would be prepared to call an all-in (because I have a draw which beats the current top hands) would it be better to make the shove?

This way I get fold equity on lesser hands and a flush draw against those that do not fold.

that's a completely different question than the one you asked originally.

the answer depends on how wide the range of hands he folds is compared to the range he calls with (AA KK and a set), and of the equity you have against that range if you just go to showdown instead of shoving. And on the size of the shove compared with pot size.

Basically, there are so many variables you left out that it's impossible to give you a proper answer.

I do appreciate you taking the time to post, but at this point Im not really sure why you are taking the time.

You keep picking faults in a hypothetical example I gave to try and further my own knowlege. I keep relpying hoping that you will see what it is that im asking, but the reply gets further nit-picked.

At this point I am no further forward that when you told me I couldnt read my hypothetical opponent as well as I could.

If I understood the situation 100% then I wouldn't be asking the question in the first place.

If you are trying to help then I do appreciate it but at this point I honestly dont if you are just deliberately being obstructive.

Based on Zach's PokerStove equity post you have to be getting 2/1 for correct pot odds. to get 2/1 pot odds the villian's pot sized bet on the flop would put them all in and there would be no money behind for you to shove over the top of, so you would have no fold equity if you are able to put the villian on AA-KK or a set. You best play if the stacks where this way would be to shove preflop as the villian would have to be short or the preflop raises insane.

The problem is no one can answer your question without details. It would be similar to you going to a hitting coach and asking him "how do I hit?". When asked whether you mean hitting 90 mph fastballs, breaking balls, the inside pitch, and whether you wanted to work on pulling, contact, or power, you just said "I just want to know how to hit, why do you keep nit-picking?"

If there were one answer to each general situation like this there would be a lot more better players today. But there isn't, it's all situational.

Anyway, I did give you your equity when called if we assume your ranges are correct. You have 32.182% equity when called. You can use this and some math to figure out how much he has to bluff for your shove to be +ev given pot odds. If you don't know the math behind it I'd be glad to help you out if you come up with a concrete example. If you don't have a specific hand in your db just make one up with stack sizes and action.

I get what you are saying 100% The reason I wanted the c-bet in the example was that it showed that the opponent was interested in the hand.

Ultimately the question Im getting at.. and I think the example I chose is a bad one!! is this

If I was prepared to call a shove because I have a nut flush draw and the odds of calling the shove are correct.. then is it correct for me to shove if the oppertuity arises. Almost like a reverse call.

This way im getting fold equity against lesser hands and correct calling odds (but im not the one who is calling) .. I hope that last bit makes sense.. I dont know how else to describe it.

OK, to be clear, if you want your problem to be complete, you need to specify

your hand: AKs

villain's range: for instance you think he plays all pocket pairs the same, i.e. 22-AA

villain's calling range if you shove: you said AA, KK, sets, let's say 44,88,JJ on the J84 board zach suggested

that allows us to compute the range he folds. with the above assumptions that's 22,33,55,66,77,99,TT,QQ.

Then we can figure your equity against the range he calls with:

Board: Js 8s 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.182% 32.18% 00.00% 4779 0.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 67.818% 67.82% 00.00% 10071 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 88, 44 }


We can also figure out the equity against the range he folds:

Board: Js 8s 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.413% 54.41% 00.00% 25857 0.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 45.587% 45.59% 00.00% 21663 0.00 { QQ, TT-99, 77-55, 33-22 }

We also need to figure the size of both ranges. In this case, there are 48 combos in the range he folds and 15 combos in the range he calls with.

Then we need to know the amount in the pot, let's say A, and the amount left in the effective stack, let's say B.

Your EV when folding is B

Your EV when shoving is A+B when villain folds 48/(48+15) = 76% of the time, and 0.32x(A+2B) when he calls 15/(48+15) = 24% of the time, so in total, your EV when shoving is 0.76x(A+B) + 0.24x0.32x(A+2B) = 0.837 x A + 0.914 x B.

Therefore, shoving is better than folding when 0.837 x A + 0.914 x B > B , i.e. B < 10 x A, i.e. shoving is good practically unless is a huge overbet. Of course we get this result because we started with a large range for villain, which means we get a ton of fold equity. We would need to make this computation for a more realistic range for villain.

Computing the EV of calling is is significantly harder as we need to decide what kind of action we take on a blank turn and what kind of action we take on a turn that gives us the flush.

Without doing a bunch of calculations if you in a situation were the odds would be correct for a shove by the villian to be called and you are allowed to make the first move then I would say always take the initiative and shove, giving yourself at least a small chance of the villian folding.

that is only true if you have fold equity. If you know for certain that villain's range is ahead of you and that he folds 0% of it, you should not put any more money in the pot on your own initiative and can only pay his bets if you have correct pot odds.

If you think he folds some of his range, you do need to make the kind of computations i made above (or guesstimate it at least) to determine if shoving is good or not.

Thanks for that Belgio

Ill have a look at that for a few different ranges of the opponent and see what the numbers look like.

If you don't think he will ever bluff, then yes. If you think he will bluff, especially with worse flush draws, then it's better to let him bluff it all off. We need an example to see for sure if the equity we gain from bluffs shoving into us is bigger than the fold equity we get by making hands with odds to call us fold.

Damn you Belgo you can't just let me be lazy can you

No probs, Im off to bed in a bit but will post a couple of examples tomorrow for us to look over.

just calling is the smart thing to do. then raise or reraise at the turn or river. but if theres a pair on the board.... look out for the fullhouse son.

I think calling, and re-raise in the river or all in in the turn, is the best thing to do. you cant waste a flush draw with an agressive player.

if he has been playing loose, yes. if he has been playing tight, no. I mean if he goes all in, even if you do have correct odds, folding would be a better idea depending on where you are in the tournament

If flop is a danger flop (heavy on straight draws or including some Ace/king/Queen/Jack /T) .. I would think twice.

I don't understand where you get, "you are getting the correct odds to call from" ? you have around 9 + (3) outs and maybe your ace ain't good.

This mean you recon he will fold his big hand roughly 25% of the time. ( I don't think he will, I would guess around 10% max).