Playing the Odd's

I like to play by the odds of winning a hand and tend to play my cards only, mostly in hold-em and fold more winning hands then I should. I'm a half glass empty guy and a tight aggresive player. A 60/40 advantage is still a 40% chance of losing and I tend to underplay these kind of hands. I will also play the 40% angle in reverse especially when big stacked and have found this leads to big success or quick failure. I need to find a middle and can use any advice anyone would be kind enough to give.

Getting a general sense of how the others at your table are playing & then using position to your advantage regardless of the cards you hold would be something I would encourage you to work on.

I agree completely knowing your hand ranking, along with knowing your table is huge in both online and physical play. Yes, sometimes there is a chance that a man next to you will wake up with AA and regardless to how well you played it will make no difference.

I never considered "knowing my table" either I would just play what I had and what the odds gave me. Ever since I started taking notes and paying closer attention I find it easier to play different hands based on odds and what I know about the opponent

I always play pretty loose at the beginning, taking more risks. The longer the tournament goes the tighter I make my play.

TAGs are never "half-empty." You may want to take another look inside, and be totally honest w/ yourself. Weak/tight, probably closer to where you are. I don't mean this, disrespectfully, at all. I used to be the half-empty type also, always afraid of the boogey man.

Your cards will only get you so far, especially in NL. As mentioned, learn your players' tendencies, patterns, steam points, and every other relevant factor in THEIR play. Yes, your play is important, obviously... but you can make 7,3o look like AA to your opponents, if you know what they're thinking, and how they view ("X").

Knowing the numbers: Worth a few bets, here and there.

Knowing the players on your right and left, trying to take your money: PRICELESS!

Whether or not you are underplaying these types of hands depends on the situation.

If you are regularly folding your 60/40 edge toward the end game in a sit and go or multi, then you are underplaying your hands.

However, if you are folding at the beginning of a sit and go or multi when you think you might be 60/40 favorite, you think you could be worse (like 50/50 or even behind), and your entire stack is at risk, then folding to stay alive and protect your stack is probably not a mistake.

In a cash game, you should probably avoid getting your money in as a 60/40 favorite. You can do better than that and there is no fear of being blinded out. You can wait for a better opportunity to get a lot of money into a pot.

As for folding the best hand, if you aren't folding the best hand once in a while, you're not playing good poker. I've actually heard players brag to the table that they never fold the best hand. That means they often call with the worst hand. And folding the best hand a few times in a session is a lot easier on your bankroll than calling with the worst hand a few times in a session.

Here's an example of how you play the odds:

POKERSTARS GAME #18538714872: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/07/02 - 18:55:05 (ET)
Table 'Paracelsus' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: fpdc ($12.70 in chips)
Seat 2: cajunpoker74 ($9.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Kal3mins ($21.65 in chips)
Seat 4: KyleJRM ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 5: Estoque ($12.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Bozboss ($6.05 in chips)
Seat 7: Supie64 ($7.25 in chips)
Seat 8: XXX123 ($8.40 in chips)
Seat 9: wolmar ($9.70 in chips)
wolmar: posts small blind $0.05
fpdc: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KyleJRM [4s As]
cajunpoker74: folds
Kal3mins: raises $0.20 to $0.30
KyleJRM: calls $0.30
Estoque: folds
Bozboss: calls $0.30
Supie64: folds
XXX123: raises $0.80 to $1.10
wolmar: folds
fpdc: folds
Kal3mins: calls $0.80
KyleJRM: calls $0.80 When it comes to me here, I've got .80 cents more into a $3 pot, plus I'm pretty sure Bozboss, who is loosepassive, will call along with me, so I'll take a shot at a yahtzee flop. If I get it, I think XXX123 will stack to me (no reads on him yet, but at NL10 that's a safe bet) with the big PP he's representing.
Bozboss: calls $0.80
*** FLOP *** [7s 3s 2c]
Kal3mins: checks
KyleJRM: checks
Bozboss: bets $1
XXX123: raises $6.30 to $7.30 and is all-in

What do I do here? I've got no real hand...yet. But I've got 9 outs to the nut flush, 3 outs to a straight, and it's possible they're playing KK-JJ and the three aces are clean outs. So I shove, knowing I'll look like an idiot to most of the table if I whiff.

No no no no no.

Sorry, but that's the exact opposite of how you play. In a cash game, it doesn't matter if you get stacked, because you should be able to buy right back in no problem.

If you are in a cash game, you should be happy to get your money in as a 51/49 favorite all day long.

Thanks for the advice and I agree with it. I find it a lot easier to read players when I can look at them and see them as they play different types of hands. In internet games I am learning and realize that it is going to take a lot of playing to figure it out.

It takes a lot of practice, as I am still learning, but once you have mastered it you will see dramatic improvements in your game.

I disagree with that. You don't have to flip coins with donks in cash games to make money.

If you could know for a fact that you were 51/49 favorite and your opponent would let you get it in that way a thousand times, then sure, that would be a great strategy for long term cash game success.

However, you seldom know with 100% certainty how far ahead you are. So if you THINK you are 60/40 favorite, you might not be. So you are putting money at risk in marginal situations where, theoretically, you can wait for a MUCH better place to put your money in against the same player....like when you are a 10 to one favorite.

If you flip coins in a cash game regularly hoping for a one or two point edge, you are giving bad players a huge advantage. They get to flip with you, and if they win, which they will do half the time, they get your stack. Now when you get a chance to get it in against that same guy when you are a 10 to one favorite, and you double up through him, you end up even for the night against him. Why would you bother to risk your stack the first time, when you could wait to just stack him the second time.

In general, cash game theory says that you should play tighter in cash games than in tourneys. The blinds are not going up and your ability to reload to the max is infinite. That comment you made about being able to reload any time you lose your stack is one reason you play tighter, not looser. You never get blinded out in a cash game. In a 5/10, you pay 15 bucks a round, and, if you just sat down, your stack goes down to $985 after the blinds pass you....you can pull $15 out of your pocket and reload to $1,000 and wait for the best places to put your money in.


Do you happen to have any sources for what you said? I'm always open to read new stuff, but my years of cash game experience and every poker book I have says you should play tighter in cash games and avoid coin flips.

You couldn't possibly be more wrong. Perhaps you are misunderstanding what people are saying. Well, you are right in the results but wrong in the reasoning.

"Coin flips" should be avoided, because if it's truly 50/50, you should be losing to the rake.

But there's never a need to wait for a better spot in a cash game if you have any sort of an edge at all, because the better spot later will be there regardless.

Do you think that if you lose to a bad player when you were slightly ahead, you won't get the chance to be ahead of him 80/20 later? Why not take both?

Any situation in which you are even slightly ahead should be taken in a cash game.

The reason you play tighter in a cash game is because you can afford to wait for situations where you are sure you have an edge, not just situations where you think you probably do. But if you definitely have an edge, it's insanity to pass it up.

"Why would you bother to risk your stack the first time, when you could wait to just stack him the second time."

Here is where you are going wrong. This isn't an either/or situation.

I don't have to choose between the two.

I can take a 51/49 situation with "my stack" now AND the 80/20 situation. I don't have to choose on or the other.

Work on learning agression at the right time. You're never going to know that you are 60/40 or any other ratio to win/lose until after you see the villians hand. Pick your battles, don't let them pick you.


I just had to address this. If you don't pay attention to your opponent's play and only play "by the book" you might as well just quit right now! Glad to see Fry is starting to take notes. Using Pokertracker or similar programs with a hud will realy help your game too.

If his range was as you described it (88+,A9s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo) and you had 88, you were slightly behind his range (46.5-53.5) and it would have been a bad call.

Again, yes you should play tight in cash games. But if know your villain's range of shoving is the above, and you have TT instead of 88, and you fold, then you are losing expected value.

"Tighter" in cash games means tighter, not waiting for the nuts. In a tournament situation, you might find yourself open shoving 97s if the blinds, stack sizes, position and such warrant, which is something you'd never do in a cash game.

I know this should be in a different thread. I started using PT3 but I have no I dea of what I am supposed to be looking at or what infomation on the HUD will actually help my game. Can someone give me a link or direct me to a place with a video or something? I got Stoxpoker free PT3 tutorial but it didn't show me how to use the program. It only featured the updates.