Playing against chip leaders, period.

What I am wondering is, when you are playing against the chip leaders at your tables, online, mostly late in tournaments, but not always, and you know that you have the best hand going against the monster stack, and you bet enough to let them know you have the best hand, but they call anyways, and beat you by the river, what percentage of the time do you think they should win? Is it posiible to have some statistics or percentages on this kind of play? For me I would have to say that I get beat 75% of the time, seems high, but its close to that!

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SHERMSTICK

Online is so different from live play. 75% ahead pre is not bad, I'm about 90+ cause I don't play crap. It changes however when your the big stack late in a game, they can afford to lose, you can't,and the big stack knows that, so a call or reraise should be expected if your less than 8xBB OR it's less than 25% of the big stacks chips IF he/she are still in the hand. The odds of a call or raise also change if it's bubble time or a step up in the money. It's all about knowing who you are up against and your position. Unfortunately some big stacks don't know when to fold, think their invincible ( like the dudes in a ditch with a 4 wheel drive ) and end up suckin out, make notes and play biggies hard next time.

If you think you have the best hand post flop in the late stages of a tourney, push and put the other player to the test.

I would have to agree with pothole. I have gotten myself into some of the same situations as you. For awhile I would fold knowing i probably had the best hand but didn't want to get eliminated.

Like pothole said get your chips in the middle as fast as possible when you know you have the best hand and going against the Big Stack. I have found they will more than likely fold than risk the chip lead or giving away their chips.

I try to avoid the monster stack unless I have a top 3 or 4 hand if possible. I've had the chip lead and its as if you can call with any 2 in many spots and win the pot. You have to be careful not to overdo. Sometimes the beats are so brutal it seems as if the software is setup to eliminate the short stacks at a certain stage of the tourney.

The percentage of times they should win depends entirely on the cards they're holding (or the range of hands you put them on) and the cards you hold.

The rest is just down to variance: even if you're an 80% favourite to win a hand, you'll still lose 20% of the time, and there's nothing to say that you won't lose five of those hands in a row.

I'm happy to do a few quick calculations if there's any specific hands you'd like to post.