Opponent folding percentages

#1 16th March 2009, 6:01 AM

Are there any tips on guestimating what % your opponent will fold to your bet.

example: suppose you're considering bluffing $13 into $18 pot, against an opponent who will fold 40% of the time.

How would you determine the "40%"?

#2 16th March 2009, 6:16 AM

it depends on the pre-flop action how many players are in whats your position what the flop was and his/her tendencies. post more info

#3 16th March 2009, 6:26 AM

what I'm trying to get at is, what are the factors that contribute to you guessing that percentage say 20% or 50% or 80%

#4 16th March 2009, 1:31 PM

you never know that for sure. but lets say you bet pot on the flop then you should expect your opponent to fold at least %51 for it to be profitable.

#5 16th March 2009, 4:14 PM

To find this information out, you would need to play and/or observe your opponent for a while to see how he/she plays. If you have noticed that they fold a lot of the time to a big raise after checking the flop, then you might want to try it.

Unless you have played with the person before, the only way to really tell ~percentages is by playing with someone and figuring out their tendencies and style.

#6 17th March 2009, 12:31 AM

As the example of betting $13 into $18 pot, I've got QQ on an Ac,Js,8h,Kd board and villain has Ax. I estimate the opponent will fold 1:2 times to this bet then I know that it is +EV to bluff.

But if you estimate the opponent will fold only 1:3 times then this is -EV, guess I fail to see the pros ability to access opponents folding percentages making bluffs profitable.

#7 17th March 2009, 2:15 AM

We must also consider that there will be times when we flop the absolute NUTZ and we will want our opponent to call.

#8 17th March 2009, 4:34 AM

That's a really strange question. There is no benefit to looking at folding percentage in general. The only time you want to see how much an opponent will fold is from continuation bets. A Cbet is usually around half the pot, otherwise it's just a bluff.

There is software with HUD that would allow you to see whatever stats you want on an opponent in real time that are allowed by most poker sites. However, you will realize that there are very specific stats, not just "how often an opponent will fold."

gl on the felts.

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