omg how am i beating this game?

I really don't know. I look at the hand analysis and think one thing which turns out to be totally wrong. I have beat the $1/2 at the casino consistently recently (six week sample) but if I look at how it makes no sense. I think the only thing I have going for me is hand reading and math. I sort of just know. I called a bet on a four flush board with a pair of aces. Don't know how but knew I was ahead. Doesn't make sense. Will I ever get better at the fundamentals or will I always be relying on my ......whatever. it does work but I could be getting lucky too.

How many hours have you played at the casino in the last 6 weeks?

Keep playing the same way. If you're still printing money after playing a few months then stay with the strategy. If you're in major debt, come back here

Hand reading and maths...there's more to poker than that?

...that depends is the doomswitch on or off...and what site?

Heater. You would have not folded them aces on a four flush board whether you were beat or not. It was just lucky that this time you were ahead. Sounds like the "well I just knew he was bluffing" line donks pull out when they snap call an all-in with a shit middle pair.

Six week sample is nothing. How much have you played per week? Presuming you only play weekends 10 hours is probably the most you've played. 10*6=60.

Lets be generous against and presume you have a really quick dealer and nobody taking ages to act. That is probably 30hands/hour. 30*60 =1800. So 1800 hands.

Now compare to someone who multitables online. We'll say about 90hands/hour. When I play cash I tend to have at least 5 tables running, some have alot more. I play 450 hands/hour which is 1800 hands in 4 hours. I'd look abit stupid if i went on a forum and said I've been a consistent winner over 4 hours multitabling 5 tables and announced that I'd beaten a level after 4 hours play.

Also not laying down Aces in a board that only needs one card for a flush is never +ev. I've seen it so many times where I'm clearly ahead of someone with aces but they refuse to lay it down and at showdown we end up with our stacks in the middle when they were quite clearly never ahead. Massive leak in quite a lot of newcomers play.

Not true. I would have folded that hand 99 times out of 100. This one time I called. I would think heater as well, but in the two months leading up to black friday I took $300 to $2700 playing $4 on demand rush tourney's and then rush $200NL. I have final tabled 13 freerolls on felt pokerstars in the last 2 weeks. I want to play there but don't want to deposit. I don't know. That seems like more than a heater, but maybe. I guess I'll just try to keep learning.

I'm not claiming to be great at the game. I just know that I am winning and really don't understand why. Can someone accidentally play well innately without deep study of the game?

I guess I'm thinking of "standard plays". I heard John Kim say to someone something like "You're supposed to peel there 100% of the time." I didn't know that. I don't know any of the standard plays and will play the same hand differently from one hand to the next. Just depends on how I perceive the strength of the villain.

Definitely heater. There's no doubt you have some skills but you basically have no business playing NL 200 if you aren't even sure why you're winning.

So long as you feel that you are winning, whether you can explain it or not, you are going to find "deep study" of the game difficult. The concepts will not line up with what you are doing. Playing based off of a feeling or "knowing" that they have or don't have something could lead to success over a small sample size. You say that you would have folded that AA 99/100 times but cannot provide a reason you knew you were ahead. He couldn't have had 2 pair or a small flush ever? what percent of the time do you have to be right to call there? 30% of the time? 80% of the time? I imagine you probably don't know.

50K hands is a pretty good hand size. It is certainly not unheard of for people to be on a heater for 50K hands or more.

But when you are on a down streak, it will be hard for you to know if you are running badly or if you are playing poorly.

I have been explaining to someone in another thread how its possible to go on a 3 year live heater, so 6 weeks is highly possible.

Whilst this is true, it implies that 50K is the upper boundary.

Variance simulators show that 300K is more like the upper boundary.

Im not sure you can say that.

Many people believe they would do things like this 99 times out of 100 but when actually placed in the situation they do not do what they say (or even believe) they would do.

I appreciate the advice in this thread. I've been thinking a lot more about this. I'm certainly not a fish and do have some skills in the game. What I don't know about is some of the thin line stuff. Very thin in some cases. I'm able to get value out of my good hands pretty well and that helps me stay ahead.

You're right, I can't say 99%. But I have also folded a J high turned flush on a rivered 4 flush board. That's prolly not a +ev play, but I knew I was beat. Sho nuff.

I really am trying to learn the game's intricacies. It's not like I'm saying "hey I'm doin fine so I don't need to learn." I guess part of the question I have is, is it possible to play innately well sort of on accident? Like you're natural tendencies lean toward good play without knowledge of why its good.

I wanna learn +ev stuff w/o the gut.

Other than your forays into Rush 200 NL, you've been playing against very bad competition.

1-2 casino games are absurdly soft; on average probably no better than 10 NL games, sometimes quite a bit worse. There is incredible variance in MTTs, so it's hard to tell anything from your online results. Turning $300 into $2,700 is nothing that has not been done thousands of times.

Poker is as intricate and complicated as you want it to be, depending on the level/stakes you want to play. Keep learning and building on what you do well and you'll get better.

That's funny that there are 2 of these threads started within a day of each other.

I was talking to Ubercroz and we sort of decided that, while rush taught me tons of tendencies of people, it didn't help my turn and river play. It's more about pre and flop. Now that I tunic about it some more it seems like turn and river are whew most of my thin decisions are made. Ok. I now know what to focus on. I should talk to myself more often. Seems to help me think.

Just not enough info. If I could sweat you for a session I could tell you a lot more, but that aint gonna happen unless you go to the casinos I go to.
For sure - 6 weeks is not nearly enough of a sample. Mine is 10 months long and I am still asking the same questions - but I am not asking myself how I am winning - I know exactly how I am winning. I had a two month downswing in the summer where I didn't know why I was losing. I felt it went beyond variance and it took a few weeks to figure it out - but finally got it and am back on track and not just a little. After having my best two months I am still not convinced I am that good (to have won as much as I have) and have more of a committment to studying the game - also so I can move up in stakes without getting my ass handed to me.
So stay humble, figure out why you are winning, define your strengths and your weaknesses and study to work on them. And you might have some areas that you cannot necessarily define right away - just stay at it. Like you, one of my strengths is reading other players and I know how it is to "just know". Sometimes it's just a split second in the process. What might be different for me is I do know how I acquired that skill and developed it. By having that knowledge I can also gauge how accurate it might be at any time (it is not infallible and requires attention and focus that sometimes wanes after sitting there for hours - walked away from a table yesterday because I knew I was spent on reading). I can point someone to that split second and what happened but the reality is most will not see it or even get it. Knowing physical tells is very helpful but a lot of my reads happen at another level. Again that is due to an attribute gained in another career field and not because I am a great poker player. I am still learning to apply other life skills to the table. No different than guys who were already acclimated to doing equations, stats, percentages and math before they learned the game. But a strength in one area almost inherently means a weakness in another. I suck at math. Have to run in my head a few times to make sure. I'lI don't immediately recognize that there is a mathmatically correct play. And when I do finally make the correct play players jump on my ass about what took so long? One of these times I want to go, "How could you call me on that?!?!?! Couldn't you read that I had the nuts?!?!"
But its about bringing all this stuff together. Your head is going to go through all sorts of thoughts as you ride the poker roller coaster. It was not that long ago I was convinced I just sucked at cash games and needed to stay with tourney play - now my focus and profit is almost 100% cash play and tourneys are just a diversion to do with my buddies.

Im the other guy that Stu was talking about. Ive been playing for about 3 years and doing pretty well, mostly from my reads and trusting my gut. Now ive started looking more at the maths around it I realised how technically bad I have been.

The way I am going to approach it now is this: i have some skills for sure, it might have been a 3 year heater, but my reads are pretty good so there must be some skill in there. Now if I can start from scratch on the technical side of things, I can only get better (maybe worse for a while before i get better). Its a bit like a boxer using just one hand. you can land some good shots, even score a few knockouts, but surely fighting with both hands must give you a better chance in the long run.

i will keep watching your thread, I think we are in a similar place!

You probably could sweat him, Sixhurdles and I both live in KC, and if your location is accurate so do you.

The answer is 'yes?'

Because it is possible that person could, simply by pure accident, consistently make correct decisions that will over and over make profit at the game without knowing why.

It is also possible that 1 monkey could accidentally type all of the letters and spaces required to produce a work of Shakespeare.

Not only is it possible, but given enough opportunities it WILL occur.

I guess my question is, are YOU that monkey?

Digression:

A few years ago, I stumbled upon a site that was testing the monkeys theory by simulating untold trillions of monkeys typing for untold millennia and the closest they got to replicating Shakespeare was a sentence fragment. From a recent article:

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2011/09/...#ixzz1cSeNxRdz

That said, I think it's far more likely that Six Hurdles is a naturally good poker player.

So you're telling me it's a greater likelihood that he is a good poker player naturally than it is for monkeys to write Shakespeare? I'm gonna have to Think on that one

Have ever, voluntarily, read Shakespeare? I doubt it, no-one has.

Have you ever been made to read Shakespeare at gun point? This is the traditional route by which most people are introduced to the works of the bard.

There isnt a single English schoolboy who dosent think that a monkey couldnt do better than this :-

Blackadder (cult TV show and character played by Rowin Atkinson) travels back in time and meets Shakespeare .

I think this accurately reflects the general consensus of opinion on the works of Shakespeare

NO SHIT!!!!?????
Somehow I had a hunch - that's why I put it there - how's that for a read??? LOL - PM me and we'll get something going.

Well yeah - absolutely. Think about it - there are existing skill sets to bring to each application. A lot of poker players bring (brought) prior existing math skills, psychology skills, people skills, game theory, paradigms, etc that helped them to quickly get over a learning curve and start being profitable. It doesn't mean they totally understand the game just that what they do have translates to success. Extreme example, but not unlike an athlete who can crossover to another sport - much of the skill set transfers though the strategies and rules are totally different. Maybe this guy was a chess nerd as a kid?
What prior existing skill sets does a monkey bring to a keyboard to write Shakespeare?

Yes, I have - and I would even venture to say that experience (and surrounding experiences) is part of a skill set I bring to the poker table that serves me quite well.

Not so, neither; but if I had wit enough to get out of this wood, I have enough to serve mine own turn.

ROTFL - now that is FUNNY!!!!!

hahaha Stu. How has this thread digressed to this?