ODDS,,Thomas Bayes

Thomas Bayes Therum, aka,Theorys, The reverend Thomas Bayes was an English mathamation, born 1702,,died 1761,,looked on the net for info about him, I was watching a tv program about odds and his name was mentioned, it was about Odds in our Daily life to poker odds,, it was very interesting,, I was just wondering if ANY of you guys ever use his theory, the Bays Therum they called it,,, was wondering if any of you college guys were taught it or have ever heard of it. I was also wondering if this is the theory Jesus Ferguson uses, cant think of Fergusons 1st. name rite now,, Anyways do any of you play poker using his theorys>> buck

sorry buck i don't know anything about him except what you wrote

it was a very interesting show i watched,, look him up on MSN search,, very good stuff,,,, ok got to go for Laundry detergent now,, See, EVEN men do laundry,lol buck

From reading about Bayes Theorem on Wikipedia, the closest application (I think anyway) is "implied odds" (http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-...plied-odds.php)

Bill Chen's book "The Mathematics of Poker" goes into this in excruciating detail.

Jesus Ferguson mentioned it on an interview, i didnt know what the hell he was talking about, till today when i saw the show, i read a little of it on Wiki Pedia< or whatever its called>> seemed interesting, at my age all i got is my experiance, when i read something i usually forget it in a matter of minutes, im going to read more of Bayes Therom later,,, if you young guys read it, you should remember it, It might just Help in your poker playing.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buck

Thanks Buck, I'd heard of it but not read anything. After a bit of Wiki browsing it seems Pete is right about it being in the same area as implied odds. Definately a useful tool when thinking about the game (as is any conceptual framework for helping understand things).

Haven't a clue about understanding the mathematical formulas I came across though

LOL, the only formulas i know is>> 1+1 = 2,, lol,, it was hard for me to understand some of it,, im going to read a bit more later or tomorrow, have you guys across the pond ever heard of him,,Thomas Bayles??? buck

bump,, chris, rob, or anyone over in England ever hear of this guy??buck

General probability theory, which can be applied to poker odds, as far as I know.

Since he was a minister, I don't know if Bayes would have approved of it being used for gambling, but who knows.


My wife would know more just 'cause she likes stats. Chuck might too.

His first name is Chris.

bump to the front,,, cause of another post that was started >buck

As maths is my stronger point ill enjoy looking through this - thanks for the heads-up on it Mr Buckster.

Although it wont stop a run of 52, 73, Q2, J3, 62 etc will it lol

Although it wont stop a run of 52, 73, Q2, J3, 62 etc will it lol

No, Only a sacrifice will stop that. From experience I know that folding QQ pf will stop that run.........

It's not really about implied odds at all.

In fact, the application has more to do with putting your opponent on a hand, or a range of hands, given their actions/reactions. You would be using it when determining the probability that your opponent has x, given y information that we have about him.

My understanding of Bayes comes from Sklansky in "Getting the Best of It":

"Whenever something has occurred that could have two or more different causes behind it, Bayes' Theorem shows us how to calculate the probability for each cause."

i.e. "if something can happen by any of a variety of different causes or means, the probability that it will happen in any particular way is the probability of the event happening by that means, as compared to the total probability of the event happening at all."

He gives the example of a horse racing prop bet where by we are betting that filly A will win IF in fact a filly wins the race.

In other words, I would describe it as sort of "piggybacked" contingencies.

In poker you might say "given that my opponent open raised, what is the probability that he has a pair?". Given that he will open with (x) range, you then compare that range with the know probability of having been dealt a pair.

In other words, it is sort of a "combination of the probabilities."

No lol,, just change them cards to x=2y,, 2y=x c=7x Q=9z,, lol did that help,,lol >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buck

That just made my telly go funny instead lol

LOL,, i read some of that Tom Bayes stuff, very confusing to me, guess i Cant mix numbers & letters,,, no wonder i always lose at poker,lol.
buck