Is my math correct here?

#1 10th October 2008, 9:18 PM

I'm not really looking for - you should have folded pre-flop and stuff like that I'm looking to understand pot odds better. I think my math is correct, but I'm not sure.

OK here's the situation...

.25/.50NL Full Ring Game

Effective Stks are $25.00

I'm on the button with 4d7d - It limps to me 4 ways to me and I limp in wanting to see a cheap flop (already getting 5.5-1 on a call - right?). The BB raises to $4.00 (wow big raise my friend) I put him on AA-JJ & AK AQs maybe down to 88 and he just wants to steal the limpers bets, plus the blinds. I was going to fold and then everyone calls. The SB folded before so if I call it will be the last bet before the flop. I think and decide to call hoping for a huge flop seeing $20 in the pot already before my call. If not I can get away from my hand very easily. The flop hit 8d4s10d - now I have a pair and a flush draw and a back door straigh draw. The BB bets out $8 - to me it looked like a very weak c-bet. It folded to me and I pushed all in for my remaining $21.00. If I'm up against AA, KK, QQ, or JJ then I'm a coin flip with 2 cards to come. I knew I would only get called by AA, KK, QQ, and JJ. So I know he will call with those hands, but with his weak c-bet looked like AK and AQs. I figure he will fold 50%+ of the time and then if he calls I'm still a coin flip and with $32 in the pot...

I'm getting 2.52-1 on a my money if he calls and I'm only a 2.28-1 underdog. Is pushing correct here? Remember I only have $21 left in my stk looking at $32 in the pot. Is this a positive EV move?

I also wanted to know if all my math is correct. Could someone please take the time to let me know if it is correct or help me understand better where my math is incorrect and an easy or more accurate way of coming up with the correct math.

How I got my math...

4 limpers all call $4, the BB raised to a total of $4 and I called for $4 = $24 pre-flop

BB - bet $8 on the flop taking pot to $32

I had a decent idea that he would call and a chance he would fold. If he folds I win if he calls I'm betting $21 to win $74 (74/21 = 3.52-1= 2.52-1 on my money)

I have a pair and a flush draw if he has AA-JJ like I think he does I'm vs. an over pair. I have 9 flush outs, and 5 2 pair/trip outs = 14 outs or 2.28-1 underdog (I also have back door outs if the turn is a 9 or 6).

So if I'm getting 2.52-1 on my money, but I'm only a 2.28-1 dog pushing or calling his push is the correct +EV move over the long run correct or am I missing something?

#2 11th October 2008, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrentD22

I'm not really looking for - you should have folded pre-flop and stuff like that I'm looking to understand pot odds better. I think my math is correct, but I'm not sure.

OK here's the situation...

.25/.50NL Full Ring Game

Effective Stks are $25.00

I'm on the button with 4♦7♦ - It limps to me 4 ways to me and I limp in wanting to see a cheap flop (already getting 5.5-1 on a call - right?).

This is pretty bad. 5.5:1 is not anywhere near enough to be playing this weak of a hand in a multi-way pot. After all, you will flop your flush DRAW about one in every eight times... and then, how will you know your 7 high flush is even good if it hits? What about re-draws from people with the naked Ad? Etc., etc...

The BB raises to $4.00 (wow big raise my friend)

Not really: if $1.50 is the standard open (3xbb) then one bb per limper (5, = $2.50), then this is exactly an appropriate raise. Some would even argue that it is a bit small if he means to take it down preflop so as not to play out of position.

I put him on AA-JJ & AK AQs maybe down to 88 and he just wants to steal the limpers bets, plus the blinds. I was going to fold and then everyone calls.

The SB folded before so if I call it will be the last bet before the flop. I think and decide to call hoping for a huge flop seeing $20 in the pot already before my call. If not I can get away from my hand very easily.

Except $4 is about 16% of your stack, and there is almost no way you are going to have that much equity in this pot. See above considerations regarding the strength of your hand...

The flop hit 8♦4♠10♦ - now I have a pair and a flush draw and a back door straigh draw. The BB bets out $8 - to me it looked like a very weak c-bet. It folded to me and I pushed all in for my remaining $21.00. If I'm up against AA, KK, QQ, or JJ then I'm a coin flip with 2 cards to come. I knew I would only get called by AA, KK, QQ, and JJ. So I know he will call with those hands, but with his weak c-bet looked like AK and AQs. I figure he will fold 50%+ of the time and then if he calls I'm still a coin flip and with $32 in the pot...

Yes, you are about a coin flip with one pair. Shoving here is ok.

I'm getting 2.52-1 on a my money if he calls and I'm only a 2.28-1 underdog. Is pushing correct here? Remember I only have $21 left in my stk looking at $32 in the pot. Is this a positive EV move?

Yes, you are about even money (perhaps even ahead)-- not sure where you get the 2.28:1 underdog stat (?)

I also wanted to know if all my math is correct. Could someone please take the time to let me know if it is correct or help me understand better where my math is incorrect and an easy or more accurate way of coming up with the correct math.

How I got my math...

4 limpers all call $4, the BB raised to a total of $4 and I called for $4 = $24 pre-flop

BB - bet $8 on the flop taking pot to $32

I had a decent idea that he would call and a chance he would fold. If he folds I win if he calls I'm betting $21 to win $74 (74/21 = 3.52-1= 2.52-1 on my money)

I have a pair and a flush draw if he has AA-JJ like I think he does I'm vs. an over pair. I have 9 flush outs, and 5 2 pair/trip outs = 14 outs or 2.28-1 underdog (I also have back door outs if the turn is a 9 or 6).

So if I'm getting 2.52-1 on my money, but I'm only a 2.28-1 dog pushing or calling his push is the correct +EV move over the long run correct or am I missing something?

Find a good (free) tool here.

#3 18th October 2008, 6:44 PM

sounds right

#4 10th May 2009, 7:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrentD22

I'm not really looking for - you should have folded pre-flop and stuff like that I'm looking to understand pot odds better. I think my math is correct, but I'm not sure.

OK here's the situation...

.25/.50NL Full Ring Game

Effective Stks are $25.00

I'm on the button with 4d7d - It limps to me 4 ways to me and I limp in wanting to see a cheap flop (already getting 5.5-1 on a call - right?). The BB raises to $4.00 (wow big raise my friend) I put him on AA-JJ & AK AQs maybe down to 88 and he just wants to steal the limpers bets, plus the blinds. I was going to fold and then everyone calls. The SB folded before so if I call it will be the last bet before the flop. I think and decide to call hoping for a huge flop seeing $20 in the pot already before my call. If not I can get away from my hand very easily. The flop hit 8d4s10d - now I have a pair and a flush draw and a back door straigh draw. The BB bets out $8 - to me it looked like a very weak c-bet. It folded to me and I pushed all in for my remaining $21.00. If I'm up against AA, KK, QQ, or JJ then I'm a coin flip with 2 cards to come. I knew I would only get called by AA, KK, QQ, and JJ. So I know he will call with those hands, but with his weak c-bet looked like AK and AQs. I figure he will fold 50%+ of the time and then if he calls I'm still a coin flip and with $32 in the pot...

I'm getting 2.52-1 on a my money if he calls and I'm only a 2.28-1 underdog. Is pushing correct here? Remember I only have $21 left in my stk looking at $32 in the pot. Is this a positive EV move?

I also wanted to know if all my math is correct. Could someone please take the time to let me know if it is correct or help me understand better where my math is incorrect and an easy or more accurate way of coming up with the correct math.

How I got my math...

4 limpers all call $4, the BB raised to a total of $4 and I called for $4 = $24 pre-flop

BB - bet $8 on the flop taking pot to $32

I had a decent idea that he would call and a chance he would fold. If he folds I win if he calls I'm betting $21 to win $74 (74/21 = 3.52-1= 2.52-1 on my money)

I have a pair and a flush draw if he has AA-JJ like I think he does I'm vs. an over pair. I have 9 flush outs, and 5 2 pair/trip outs = 14 outs or 2.28-1 underdog (I also have back door outs if the turn is a 9 or 6).

So if I'm getting 2.52-1 on my money, but I'm only a 2.28-1 dog pushing or calling his push is the correct +EV move over the long run correct or am I missing something?

Hey Brent, u r loose bugga arent ya? lol 74s multiway pot very speculative hand no matter how many people are in. i spose i only have two comments firstly with a hand like 74s very hard to make a nut hand unless u get ridiculously lucky with something like a 7c7h4d flop or 6d8d5c flop i think u have to always be thinking of each action being a tiny part of a huge poker playing sample will limping in a multiway pot with that hand show +Ev in the long run? prob not. my second point is implied odds yeah i spose limping in for 25c if all players are deep can be justified however when the guy popped it to $4 ur implied odds go out the window because u know ur hand has to be worst of rest in the pot and now u only have $20.85 immediatly taking the worst of it with an inferior hand and u will miss mosyt of the time. As for ur shove on the flop that is prob the only move i do like as if u did put him on a bigpair. u would be a slight fav at 52.5% if he had something like AQ however you are a huge fav at 85% so if youput him in the middle of that range u r in good shape. post mate gl at the tables. cya

#5 10th May 2009, 7:39 AM

The initial limp is probably ok, depends on other factors - against weak players it's certainly right to limp and hope to flop a monster. Obviously you'd rather your cards had a greater degree of connectedness, but this is a lot better than none.

The call to $4 is wrong. You won't hit enough flops hard enough. It would almost be better if the call to $4 was an all-in, at least that way you couldn't be priced off your draws on the flop or turn.

Once you've hit the flop that hard, you are pretty much a coin-flip against an overpair - you could hit two pair, trips, a flush or occasionally a straight. Going all-in is the right play for sure. I think it's optimistic to think that the raiser might have overcards, c-betting this pot is asking for trouble, you're bound to find someone prepared to go all-in at this point, but I still don't see any advantage to doing anything else at this point.

BTW, I see a lot of people say things like

Quote:

It limps to me 4 ways to me and I limp in wanting to see a cheap flop (already getting 5.5-1 on a call - right?).

While it is true, it's a rather useless statistic - the more people who see a flop, the less likely you are to have the best hand after it, so it doesn't imply that you are getting good value for a call. What *does* encourage a call is that our cards (suited connectors, ish) play best in multi-way pots.

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