My Buddy #2

This was sent to me in an e-mail>>>>
More helpful in-site to calculating Pot-Odds from Mr. Rounder, hope you can use it.

P.S. Thank's DM

SHERMSTICK



Yea, I know. The thought of "math" makes me shudder too.

NOW MAYBE if you had LISTENED to me the first 100 times I
explained it, the formula for calculating pot odds would
have gotten through your thick skull by now!

OR MAYBE, if *I* weren't such a math idiot, I'd be able to
explain this stuff without fumbling around like a dyslexic
90-year old calculus professor-- who speaks English as a 2nd
language.

(Like in my last newsletter, where I screwed up and told
someone there was a 17% chance of making a straight by the
river. I meant the TURN CARD dammit!)

Sigh.

Anyway, we're past that now.

It's time for a FRESH START.

It's time for everyone to understand this topic of "poker
odds" ONCE AND FOR ALL.

AND THIS TIME, I promise, I'll make it as EASY as humanly
possible.

It's gonna be SO FRIGGIN' EASY, in fact, even your pet
monkey could understand it.

Hell, it's gonna be SO EASY, even JESSICA SIMPSON could
understand it!

Ok, I think I'm getting slightly over-ambitious now. I better
just get on with it.

Let's get started>>


2) If you're a stubborn jackass who absolutely, positively,
100%-with-no-equivocations REFUSES to read, think, or do
ANYTHING related to "poker math", then fine... don't read
this newsletter.

Just ignore it, delete it, whatever. I don't care.

BUT PLEASE, FOR YOUR SAKE-- and for all those pour souls out
there who chase inside straights and 9-high flush draws--
start using an odds calculator when you play online poker!!

You'll never have to THINK about math again, I promise.


OK, let's get started. I recommend printing this newsletter
out for future reference-- it's that important!


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

How do you really figure out pot odds? I've heard many
different explanations.

J.M.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

OK, here is the official Roy Rounder definition of POT ODDS:

"Pot odds is the SIZE OF THE POT compared to the NUMBER OF
CHIPS REQUIRED TO CALL A BET."

That's it.

So if the size of the pot is 100, and you have to call 20 to
stay in the hand, the "pot odds" are 100:20-- or 5:1.

If the pot size is 40 and you have to call 20, the pot odds
are 2:1.

Get it?

(If you're already stuck, go get a sharpie and write the
word "IDIOT" on your forehead. Please.)

OK, so the reason "pot odds" gets confusing is because to be
of any practical use, it must be compared to HAND ODDS--
which brings us to the next question...


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

How can I learn odds percentages of hands? (ie. where I sit
with a particular hand preflop, flop, turn river?)

C.S.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

HAND ODDS relates to the percentage chance you have of
"making" or strengthening your hand.

For example, if you've got a straight draw after the flop,
you want to know your odds of MAKING YOUR STRAIGHT on the
turn.

If you've got top pair after the flop, you want to know your
odds of catching TWO PAIR or TRIPS.

And so on.

The fastest and easiest way to calculate these percentages
is to start with the number of "OUTS" you have.

Here's the official Roy Rounder definition for OUTS:

"Outs are the number of cards in the deck that you think
will give you the winning hand."

So if you have 5-6-7-9, and you think you'll only win if you
catch the straight, then the four 8's in the deck are your
OUTS.

If, in the same scenario, you believe that a pair of 9's
would also give you the winning hand, then you'd have seven
outs (the four 8's plus the three 9's).

Now here's the shortcut for taking your OUTS and turning it
into the PERCENTAGE chance you have of catching the winning
hand on the next card.

*DOUBLE YOUR OUTS AND ADD 1.*

In numeric form, it looks like this:

(OUTS X 2) + 1 = YOUR % CHANCE

So in the example above, you had 7 outs. All you gotta do is
multiply 7 by 2, which equals 14, and then add 1, which
equals 15.

So you have a 15% chance of catching either a straight or
top pair on the next card.

It's that easy!

Now, if you want to know your percentage chance of catching
your hand by the RIVER-- instead of the turn card-- here's
the formula (it's just as simple):

*QUADRUPLE YOUR OUTS.*

In numeric form, it looks like this:

OUTS X 4 = YOUR % CHANCE

With 7 outs, you'd have a 28% chance of making your straight
or top pair by the river card.

Presto, you're done.

You've officially learned "pot odds" and "hand odds", which
means you know more than 98% of poker players on this
planet...

And all it took was 5 minutes. :-)

Now obviously, there are other (more complex) calculations
that you can perform... and I've glossed over several issues
here... but believe it or not, we've covered 80% of what pot
odds is all about.


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

Hi Roy, I want to know how I can learn easily and quickly
the implicity of odds. Thanks.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

IMPLIED ODDS is another important aspect of "poker math".

Basically, implied odds describes chips that you EXPECT to
be added to the pot-- but aren't in there yet.

So let's say the pot size is 100 and you have to call 20 to
stay in. The pot odds are 5:1.

But now let's say there's another player to act after you,
and you think he'll call. That means the pot size is
ACTUALLY going to be 120-- which would make the pot odds 6:1
instead.

Or another scenario might be that you're up against someone
who always bets aggressively after the river. You figure
that if you "make" your hand on that river card, you'll be
able to win a TON of chips.

This insight increases the likelihood you'll call a bet on
the turn, because the "implied odds" are in your favor.

Implied odds are by no means an exact science. They require
the ability to PREDICT what your opponents are going to do--
or how much they're going to bet-- in the future.


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

How do you quickly and accurately keep track of the pot in a
live game?


>>> MY COMMENTS:

Keeping track of the POT SIZE in a live game just takes a
little concentration and effort.

If someone makes it $10 to play before the flop in a $1-2 no
limit game and 3 players call (including both players in the
blinds), then there's $30 in the pot.

If only 2 players called, and both the players in the blinds
folded, then there'd be $23 in the pot ($10 + $10 + $1 + $2).

For really complicated pots with raises, re-raises, and lots
of players, it's usually simpler to just ESTIMATE the pot
size.


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

First of all I want to thank you for the much needed help
you have given me and I'm sure to lots of others.

Here is my question: I SUCK at math and unfortunately have a
concentration problem (ADHD). In your last letter you
learned us how to calculate odds and so on.

I have problems keeping up with that. Do you have any tips
to a easier way to see the odds for people like me?

A.M.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

Well... unless you wannna pop Ritalin before every poker
game, then I recommend you get an odds calculator and just
be done with it.

Here's the thing:

Most people think an odds calculator will show them a bunch
of math and numbers and make things confusing...

Nothing could be further from the truth!


Here's an example of why you need an odds calculator:

Quickly, let's say your pot odds are 5:1 and you have a 20%
chance of making the winning hand-- should you call?

...

Not sure?

Don't know?

The answer is YES, you should call. The way to figure this
out is that you must compare 5:1 and 20%. Of course, to
compare these you must CONVERT one of them.

20% is nice and even, so it's pretty easy to "convert" it to
1/5, which equals 4:1.

Then you gotta figure out if 4:1 is "better" or "worse" than
5:1. This trips up a lot of people.

Indeed it IS "better", because it means you'll win once in
every five times-- but for that one time you win, you'll
have won more chips than you lost. Overall, you'll come out
ahead.

To put it in numeric terms, let's say the pot size is 50 and
it takes 10 to call... and your hand odds are 20% (4:1).

If you follow the odds and call five times, here's what'd
happen:

Lose 10 Chips
Lose 10 Chips
Lose 10 Chips
Lose 10 Chips
Win 50 Chips

So you'd win 10 chips overall (50 minus 40).

Of course, you don't know WHEN you're going to actually win
the hand... and since probability is erratic, it may take 25
hands before the ratio actually evens out to 4:1.

(Anyone who's had a long cold streak certainly understands
this concept!)

But the point is, poker is a game of hundreds of
mathematical decisions-- one after another after another--
and if you play with the odds in your favor long enough, you
will come out ahead.


But if you're the masochistic type who enjoys pain, math,
(and maybe a little bondage), then keep reading...


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

If I have AK what is the percentage that I'll hit at least
one of my hole cards on the flop?

How do you calculate that, plz tell me how to calculate
that, plus if u don't mind me askin' one more question.

If I have AK, how do you calculate the chance of me hitting
two pairs on the flop, the flop being... saaay... A K 9 and
I am holding AK also, how do you calculate the chances of
that happening?


>>> MY COMMENTS:

To answer your first question, you've got around a30% chance
of catching the Ace or King on the flop.

Calculating this number requires a bunch of math (dividing
the number of outs by number of unseen cards for each card
on the flop, multiplying the three numbers together,
subtracting them from 1, yada yada yada).

For your second question, you've got about a 3.5% chance of
catching two pair.

I just wasted 10 minutes of my life remembering how to
calculate this one-- it's a doozy.

You gotta take the number of outs for each card, multiply
them together, multiply them by 3 (since the order of cards
in the flop doesn't matter), and then divide the new number
by the number of unseen cards cubed.

Yea... it sucked.

Anyway, now let me tell you the SANE way to calculate these
numbers:



*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

If pot odds are highly in your favor to call a preflop bet
that requires you to go all in (in tourny) but you know that
your hand is a major underdog, should you make the call...
or should the pot odds only tempt you when you are not going
to be eliminated?

K.K.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

Ummmmm.... yikes.

Buddy, you definitely need some help, because pot odds would
never dictate an ALL-IN call if you were a major underdog
(unless you were desperately short-stacked).



You'll just "know" if it's a mathematically justified call
or not. Period.

*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

You play your cards by the book. You calculate the odds,
figure the number of outs, and do everything right.

The kid with the baggy pants and the cigarette hanging out
his mouth, with his baseball cap flipped to the side, calls
your Pocket kings pre-flop raise with a 2/6 off.

He decided he wanted to make his move, you can cover his
stack so you go over top and it's just the 2 of you. He
calls and catches runner/ runner.

Next hand, you tilt just a little with QJ suited. He calls
with his King/rag and catches the rag. How can you EVER, sit
at a table with this guy again??!!!!

B.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

Your answer comes in three parts:

1.) Pocket Kings losing to 6-2 offsuit will happen about 13%
of the time, which means you'll win the other 87% of the
time. So just get over it.

2.) I sure as hell hope you didn't move all-in with that Q-J
suited! It's a coin-flip against King-rag, so the fact he
won shouldn't exactly surprise you.

3.) You should never sit at the table with him again, you're
right. Please tell him to come play poker with me-- I'd be
more than happy to have him at MY table!

Lol.

In all seriousness, you're letting emotion get the best of
you man.

Just accept the fact that your Kings got run down, don't
tilt, and don't be so dramatic.

Try yoga or something.


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

I tend to "chase" more than I should. But when I fold I see
that I lost to someone that was ALSO chasing but happened to
hit. On most occasions the same person chases consistantly
throughout the night.

I hate "losing" to someone that always chases. When is it ok
to chase since there is a good chance they are?

B.S.


>>> MY COMMENTS:

It's ok to "chase" when the odds justify it.

That will only happen on open-ended straight draws and
strong flush draws-- assuming the bet size is low enough.

If you think your opponent is on the same draw as you, test
him. Represent a made hand and raise aggressively...
hopefully getting him to fold.

Or, try figuring out who has the BETTER draw. If you're the
favorite, consider "chasing" since your implied odds are
higher.


*** QUESTION FROM A READER ***

I need to know where I can purchase or acquire information
as to the odds of hitting any given hand based upon my hole
cards, before the flop, after the flop, after the turn and
on the river.

In other words, if I am holding suited connectors, the flop
gives me 4 cards to a straight, what are my odds of hitting
a straight at the turn and then at the river, assuming I did
not hit the straight at the turn?

I would like to have those odds on a sheet for the various
types of circumstances that can occur during the course of a
poker game.

So if you're serious about improving your poker skills, this
is the right thing to do.