| This is a discussion on Multiplayer vs Heads Up odds: Which one is better? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; In another tread it was claimed that you are more likely to lose in a heads-up tournament. The argument is that you need to win ... |
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| Multiplayer vs Heads Up odds: Which one is better? In another tread it was claimed that you are more likely to lose in a heads-up tournament. The argument is that you need to win 55% of your HU tourneys to recover a 10% rake. Suppose the blind structure is the same (e.g, 10%) irrespective of the number of players in the tourney. Do you prefer more or fewer players? What is the "optimal size" of a tourney to maximize your expected value from playing the tourney? |
| Play Texas Hold'em Online Poker | Multiplayer vs Heads Up odds: Which one is better? | |
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| Ok I looked up a couple things and here is what I have found out about myself. (Note: My sample sizes are all way too small and may be inaccurate due to the small sample size.) Bodog is the site I have the most stats about my MTT play. From playing 44 tracked MTTs I have cashed in 10, or 22.73%. I have 1 win (2.27%) 1 third place finish (2.27%) and 7 final tables (15.91%). Average field size being 168 players. Analysis: In a 168 player MTT top 18 get paid. Pay structure is as follows: 18-10th = 1.2% 9th= 1.7% 8th= 2.6% 7th= 3.5% 6th= 5.0% 5th= 6.5% 4th= 8.0% 3rd= 11.9% 2nd= 20.0% 1st= 30.0% Now I need some help with the math |
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| Ok so lets say you are playing $5 MTTS with average of 170 players, that means prize pool is $850. If you played 100 5+.50 Mtts you are in for $550. A min cash in one of these games is 1.2% of $850 or $10.20. To recoop the $550 of buy ins you need to cash 53.92 out of 100, ($550/$10.20). So we can clearly see that if you are only min cashing in MTTs you are not going to be a winning player. Look right so far nuts? |
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| re: Multiplayer vs Heads Up odds: Which one is better? poker Quote:
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| So going on with some analysis: My 15.91% final tables is nice because that would be almost 16/100 tournament that I get at least 1.7%, so thats a guaranteed $230 over the course of 100 $5 mtts (1.7% of $850 times 15.91). Out of those 7 FT's only 2 were 9th place and the other 5 were better (8,7,7,3,1). If we take a look at my 2 7th place finishes (4.54%) they would make me an extra 1.8% on top of the $230 or another $69.46 lets say $70 (1.8% of $850 times 4.54). So now we are up to $300...OH CRAP I FORGOT ABOUT MY MIN CASHES. So that is 10 cashes, 7 being final tables so 3 min cashes or 6.81%. A min cash gets us $10.2 so times 6.81 equals $69.46 over 100 MTTs. So we are at $370 or -$180 if we pretend that my stats do not include that one very important win and the third place finish, they were both just a minimum cash instead. From looking at this data I can conclude one thing: The more entrants a tournament has, the harder it is to make a profit in the long run. You have the chance at the big payday for a win, but without it you won't be making much. |
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