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Poker - Kings are Killing me
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#1
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Kings are Killing me
Ok, so I'm once again trying to make the move from .05/.10 no limit to .10/.25 no limit. I've failed spectacularly every time I've tried to make the move in the past, so I've tightened my game up a little this time.
I'm doing well except for one glaring hand. Pocket kings are costing me 16BB/hand. Literally, in the last 5 times I've had them, I've been all-in preflop against Aces. I know this is a bad run, but am I playing KK too aggressively here? I gladly put myself all-in preflop with KK on the .05/.10 tables, and kings were doing very well for me there. I guess the question is, are players too smart at .10/.25 to stack with worse than KK, or is this just a bad run of cards? |
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#2
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I've been having that problem all week. K/K is doomed.
Aloevera's seen me get screwed with Kings a few times, then she busted me when I had Kings and she made a set of 4's. This all started a week ago Sunday, when I wished Tenbob pocket Kings just minutes before the bubble of the Sunday Millions. He got them, then got felted when I think Q/Q made a set a hair before the bubble. I mean, I don't believe in luck, but random patterns can be weird sometimes. |
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#3
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If your getting all in with kings pre-flop at nl$25 and losing then its just the bad side of variance don't beat youself up about it.
If you are losing a lot on KK post-flop then maybe a little work on your game is needed. Look in the golden archive at the WA/WB concept, have a look at some of the pot control articles and go from there. |
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#4
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Anyway, obviously you're just on the bad side of variance right now. I had a period of like 7500 hands or something where AA was my biggest loser by far, now it's the biggest winner again. Getting KK all in pre flop is definitely a winning play in the long run. |
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#5
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Just a horrible run...I'm not a math wiz but if you get dealt KK, the chances someone else at a full ring table has AA would be roughly 221/9 (but actually a little higher given your KK is removed from the deck). So roughly, 1 in 25 times you have KK you will run into AA. Now consider you hit that 1 in 25, five times in a row??? It's almost like playing roulette (realizing roulette has more numbers) and the same exact number comes up 5 times in a row, astronomical!!!! Have you ever thought about trying Keno???
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#6
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Quote:
I actually made a mistake in the OP. I meant to say out of the last 5 times, I got all-in preflop against aces 4 times. But, those were 4 full-buy wipeouts, so they really hurt the BR; and that's still a statistical quagmire. Luckily, I'm currently back in the black at .10/.25 thanks to some outstanding performance by QQ. (if I said anything bad about the ladies in the past, I take it all back) So, I won't have to drop back to .05/.10 just yet. |
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#7
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Well, the experiment is over, once again. My BR was barely high enough to step into .10/.25 NL, and after this horrible run continued, I now have to drop back to .05/.10 before my BR is in serious trouble. More big losses: if I hit trips, I lost to higher trips, and my full houses ran into quads. KK is still sitting at a Win% of 44.
I still have to go back through the HHs to see how many of those were actually bad beats, and how many were badly played. I always wondered why you needed such a high BR to play at certain stakes, but now that I've seen firsthand just how bad a downslide can get, I fully understand it. Hopefully someday I see the other end of that bell curve. ![]() |
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#9
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Quote:
142x KK = $594 (aka 3 stacks) Showdowns won = 54.8% For comparison's sake: 146x JJ = $1625 (aka 8 stacks) Showdowns won = 67.6% 149x QQ = $1636 (aka 8 stacks) Showdowns won = 63.6% 125x AA = $1277 (aka 6 stacks) Showdowns won = 65.3% |
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#13
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I hated them. I kept flopping sets with them and losing to straights and flushes. I remember it being one of my top money losing hands for my first 15,000 or so poker hands. I don't think I've altered my play with them, but things have turned around and it's worked it's way back up towards the top of my winning hands. I still make a lot of "Uh oh, J/J" jokes when I IM my friend reports about what how I'm doing in a tournament. Oh... and I think pocket Jacks knocked me out in 4 of my last 6 CC tournaments. Anyway, you can't let bad luck with one particular hand hamper your play, if you have been making he correct plays. I know last week I played a ring game with some CC'ers and got over-aggressive with K/K after a rag-flop with Aloevera. I figured she had an over pair, but she actually flopped a set of 4's to double up through me. Knowing how she plays, I totally overplayed my hand and deserved to lose the maximum. After the flop, stacking with an overpair is a whole lot riskier. |
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#15
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I'm only kidding but it reminds me of a buddy that was learning the game a couple years ago. He'd have a 4 card straight and flop over his cards at showdown and declare a small straight. we called him yahtzee |
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#16
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Lost about $22 with pocket K's last night.
Had a super-aggressive high stack sitting at the table. He would call almost any raise pre-flop so I raise it up to $3.50 (35xBB) and he calls instantly. Flop was 10/6/3 (rainbow) so I lead out with a $5 bet and he pushes all in. He had pocket 10's and hit a 10 on the flop. Took my whole stack. |
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