Jam this Turn Right?

#1 4th May 2009, 2:16 AM

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/129551

I feel like we need to put it in there on the turn, arguments? Keep in mind his stack size roughly equals the pot giving us 2:1 on our big draw...

#2 4th May 2009, 2:23 AM

To be honest you might have saved yourself money. If you push on the turn, he still has an over pair to the board and probably calls whatever you bet there.

#3 4th May 2009, 2:39 AM

I dunno. You've got to feel the guy will fold quite a bit in order for shoving there to be a good play. The turn gave you another draw but didn't fill anything, so unless he thinks you've got a set, he's calling with the overpair, and I don't think a shove there represents set.

#4 4th May 2009, 3:02 AM

How about you just copy/paste a converted hand history up until the turn and post in the HA forums instead of strategy?

I went through your link and saw the results in the title, but the hand history didn't load for me.

#5 4th May 2009, 3:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falloooooon

I dunno. You've got to feel the guy will fold quite a bit in order for shoving there to be a good play. The turn gave you another draw but didn't fill anything, so unless he thinks you've got a set, he's calling with the overpair, and I don't think a shove there represents set.

He doesn't have to be folding that often at all. Jamming basically leaves him 2:1 and we have 9 flush cards + 3 straight cards on the top + 3 on the bottom...

Shoving for $126 into a $139 is 1.9:1 (34.5%), we need 2.07:1 (32.5%), so he only needs to fold 2% of the time, if he folds more than that we're +EV...

This isn't my hand BTW...

#6 4th May 2009, 9:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syfted

He doesn't have to be folding that often at all. Jamming basically leaves him 2:1 and we have 9 flush cards + 3 straight cards on the top + 3 on the bottom...

Shoving for $126 into a $139 is 1.9:1 (34.5%), we need 2.07:1 (32.5%), so he only needs to fold 2% of the time, if he folds more than that we're +EV...

This isn't my hand BTW...

Yeah.. although I would discount the flush outs a little as you are not drawing to the nut flush and AKs plays just just like the hand had played out so far. I think if you think there is a 10 - 20 % chance he will fold then its worth while.

#7 4th May 2009, 9:56 PM

Knowing nothing about villian makes this impossible to know what is best. Shoving against a completely unknown is probably fine as you pointed out he doesnt need to fold much. Against someone who never 3bets or is a calling station, checking behind might be better as the only hand going away in their range is AK and we will be able to extract money out of our straights and maybe flushes if they have na overpair. Shoving is fine too though against an unknown and probably the best play.

#8 5th May 2009, 9:55 PM

....i think if you are headsup(the other's folded) you may not let him see the turn because if it doesn't fill you it fill's him
(this if he has an over pair) because he may think you hit two pairs... and he waits for his card(to make three of a kind) or to double a comuniti card

#9 7th May 2009, 12:46 PM

Post in HA instead of strategy.

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