Implied odds

Scenario:

Your sitting at a full ring nlhe talbe. One regular, a complete rock raises to 4x bb. For the sake of simpicity lets say he never raises with a hand except aces and king. lets also say that he never lays them down, giving you great implied odds. Its folded to you in the big blind. You look down at 46 off suit. How deep do you need to be to make the call here? 80bb? 120bb? 150bb??

??

There are a few things that need to be consider:
First off, how much money is in the pot before the action gets to you.

Second you need to consider your position You are out of position after the flop. So if you miss, then you have to give up on the hand. Especially knowing that this rock only raises with KK, AA.

Third, 4,6 is not a very good starting hand to play, especially out of position, The only time I might consider calling is if I have the right price and I'm on the button or late position. But probably not from the BB.

So personally, I would not make this call knowing what you know about this player. Why waste the money and be at a disadvantage the rest of the hand. Throw it away and let this rock take 1 and a half blinds.

All that Joe said, and then maybe if I was bored and had 1000 bb's, I might call, but probably not. Possibly not (different from probably), if they were suited) .

I agree, if they were suited then I might consider it.

I think Joe and dj have it wrong here, sorry. If it folds around to me in the BB and I already have 1BB in the pot I probably make the call heads-up once in a while. Assuming I know this guy is holding AA or KK only I am trying to trap him into paying me off if I hit my hand. It might look like a loose call but it can be a great pay-off as well. I don't reccomend making this play every time, because it is a great way to waste money, but once in a while you need to hit a rock with a crap hand and take his money.

I agree that we throw this away here. Although, I will add that if this was a MTT, and I was over 100BB I would call.

In a ring game you are strictly playing odds (in most instances), and your ROI is dependant on playing good hands and winning with those hands or outplaying your opponent with betting strategy. In this instance you are not able to do either, thus you fold.

Joe, DJ: Lafaena realizes that 6-4 is a crappy hand. That's not the point.

Say both players are very deep its costing you 3bb to call. Since he is basically playing with his hand open and your getting HUGE implied odds i think this is and easy call. Say both of you have 200 in chips and its costing you 3 to call. I think you hit two pairs, straight/ straight draw or trips often enough to justify the call. Given that you have the rock pegged with aa/kk and he wont fold it(yes very hypotetical), i think that above 170bb deep is an obvious call.

everyone makes a valid point. So I guess if I was to play this hand I would have to have over 100 big blinds in front of me in order to justify the call.

If this was a bodog freeroll then 64o is a raising hand possibly an all-in hand.

In a ring game, you would be looking at the odds you have to spend 3bb to make the call pot then contains 8.5bb. If you say villain would only bet this way with AA or KK then you don't have the odds whatever your stack. If he makes these calls with AJ etc then you might be able to justify it on the implied odds of him calling all your bets.

Given the scenario you paint I would fold as you are certainly going to get better opportunities.

Interesting question though.

Au contraire. Without it being specifically AA or KK, calling here would be really bad; it's because it has to be AA or KK that we're even discussing it.

Touché - I note your two posts in the thread and would be interested to know if you have an opinion?!?

Sarcasm, if that's what it is, doesn't really help anyone.

Look, I'm not trying to be intentionally cute or difficult. This thread is about implied odds. When you say that no stacks would ever warrant a call despite us being able to play (almost) perfectly post-flop, if we know that villain has to have AA or KK, you're missing the most important point: If this call is EVER to be profitable, we must know that he has AA or KK.

Fair enough. I did ask what your opinion is and you have answered me so thank you.

The problem if taken to the extreme that villain only ever raises 4bb exactly with AA, KK and either calls or folds with other hands is trivial. Of course you call until you know your hand is beaten. It would be like playing an opponent who turns his cards face up before the flop. Apologies if I read too much into it - it is no longer an interesting question.

I think the only thing that turns me off about this hand is the fact that we're out of position. NL is a game of implied odds, and this is a perfect spot for getting in cheap if we're sitting deep enough so we can stack this player.

But let's do it by the numbers (correct me if I'm wrong with any of this):
So we're a 4.9:1 underdog to his hand, and we're getting 1.83:1 pot odds. Very unfavourable of course, but we know implied odds could easily make up for it especially considering we're up against AA/KK.

If we fool with the numbers, we can find out how big the pot needs to swell to post-flop in order to make up for the bad pot odds:


1.83:1 = 5.5:3

so,

4.9:1 = x:3

Where x is the size the pot needs to reach in order to make up for the bad pot odds,

4.9/1 = x/3
x = 3*4.9/1
x = 14.7

So we need to make a minimum of 14.7BBs total on the hand.

Technically, we could make a 'correct' call with a stack as small as ~15BBs then. I think a 'correct' call would actually have to be a little more than this since he probably won't pay us off %100 of the time when we do hit, but it's close.

I make this call every time with my standard max buyin (100BBs), and if for whatever reason I'm sitting shorter stacked, I'll call it with a stack down to 20BBs.

I would raise 80-110 above the big blind because it seems right for your opponent to fold or call it.

I get the point of the thread but I think if you want to discuss implied odds in this context then you need to state the size of your stack and the size of your opponents stack. This way you can gauge your effective implied odds.

If your opponent is the short-stack and has 10bb this is an easy fold. If both of you have 100BB this is a great call.

Also obviously, you aren't giving any implieds to your opponent.

I like the low (20bb) give by chuck.

I heard a similar story about a question posed by someone (Ferguson?) somewhere (some poker seminar?!) to the effect of "If you knew your opponent had AA, what hands would you call with?"

The answer was "all of them".

Since information is money, and you have perfect information, you need a very low bb to call. Add in that the op stipulated that he will NEVER fold them and it's clear that you don't need very deep stacks.

This is merly a pretend situation. You will never know for sure that he has aa/kk. Youll never know for sure if you are gonna stack him or not if you hit either, But sometimes, with the right player and read you can be "pretty sure" .And that is often enough to call if both has some chips.

It seems like you're ignoring the fact that this guy will continue to fire bets on the flop and turn... even if you don't hit the flop. This analysis is valid for just looking at the flop I think. If you truly are going to use the EV of 46o vs KK/AA, you must also look at the turn and river.

There are 5.5 BB in the pot when it gets to you. You have to call 3 BB initially, plus whatever he fires subsequently. Let's simplify the problem by saying that you are going to call to the river (but not the river if you miss your hand) and then go all-in on the river if you have hit your hand. Let's also say that the villain will make a pot sized bet on the flop, turn and river each time. As ChuckTs pointed out, we're a 4.9:1 underdog are getting 1.83:1 pot odds.

So on the flop, the pot will grow from 8.5 BB to (if you call his pot sized raise) 25.5 BB. Then on the turn it will grow to 76.5 BB. Of course you will fold the river if you don't make your (better) hand, so we can ignore his bet there.

In summary, you can expect to make your hand 1 in 5.9 tries and the times you do make it, you will win his whole stack or "X" BBs worth. The times you don't make it, you will lose 3BB (pre-flop) + 8.5BB (flop) + 25.5BB (turn) = 37 BB.

You will lose this 4.9 times for every 1 time you win, so you will lose 37 BB 4.9 times and win "X" BB 1 time. So 4.9 x 37 = 181.3 BB.

So, this guy must have at least 181.3 BB for this to be a break even call IF he bets the pot each round and will call your all-in bet every time.

Knew I was missing something ...boy was I off. This is becoming a really general situation; villain probably won't pot-bet every street in reality (then again he won't have a strict AA/KK range or pay us off %100 of the time).

Is there any way of calculating what our odds of improving enough to have him beat on the flop vs AA/KK?

Mabye if you just dived your chances with 3/5 ?
im probably making a fool out off myself here as i am no math guy.
I guess that you sometimes would see more cards too say if you hit a straight draw, gutshot+ pair and maybe a pair depending on stacks and flop bet.

its tricky, all this math stuff

181 bb sound like too much to me. Ill try some of my easy 3 grade math skillz to illustrate.
If both players have 160 bb and you must call 3bb. giving you about 3-180 implied odds or 1-60. Doesnt 64 outflop AA more than 1-60 times.
I would think so. Am i totally off here?? plz tell me if i am.

Outflopping doesnt mean the same as winning, but you can get away if the board counterfeits you two pairs. You can probably also get away if an ace or a king hit.

ChuckTs asked in a PM:

what are the odds that 64o will outflop AA/KK?

Ok, let's look at that...

You get 3 cards on the flop and let's say, by outflop, you mean a hand that beats AA/KK after the flop.

The easiest example is we flop our straight. We can do this with 235, 357, or 578. Oh boy, this is going to get intricate... sorry in advance. The first card must be a 2,3,5,7,or 8. Make a diagram as we go and it will be easier to see I'm sure, but I'm just going to talk myself to the solution as I type... lol. The chances of that first card being one we need are 20/48 or 5/12. That was easy! The next card needs to be one of the remaining cards so odds of that are not as easy to calculate. If, for example, the first card is a 2, the next card must be a 3 or 5. However if first card is a 5, the next card can be any of our remaining cards. Let's break it down into 2 ways to think about it:

First Card Is _______Next Card Must Be ______3rd card on flop Must be _______"The Math" ________Frequency of Event (Odds)
2 __________________3 or 5 ______________whichever needed (5 or 3)_________TO do for homework (LOL)

3 _________________2 or 5 or 7 __________whichever of those 2 needed

5 __________________2 or 3 or 7 or 8________further divided a la above

7 __________________3 or 5 or 8 __________WILL BE THE SAME process as if 3 is "first card" on flop

8 _________________5 or 7 _________________Ditto, same reasoning as if 2 is "first card" on flop


Now-- easier way... one card must be a 5: so Probability of 5 on flop = 1 - (probability of no 5 on flop) = 44/48 x 43/47 x 42/46 = 1 - 76.57% (rounded) = 23.43% of chance of 5 on flop. Multiply that by the chance of: i. a 2 and 3 on flop PLUS ii. 3 and 7 on flop PLUS iii. 7 and 8 on flop.

Do the math for these and then apply the same reasoning to possibility of 2 4's on flop, 2 6's on flop and both a 4 and 6 on flop. Then you will have your answer. I can do the math for you if you want, but it's a good exercise for the reader at home.

Yeah, that's a different question though (see my post just above)... you can only apply the win % of 46 vs KK/AA (that ChuckTs quoted above) to a board with all 5 community cards on it though. So, outflopping is different and the percentages he gives will be different.

If this helps anyone's math:

Probability of two unpaired cards hitting two pair: 47:1
Probability of two unpaired cards hitting trips: 70:1
Probability of 62o flopping a straight: 332:1

*points to the poll at the top of the thread*

Thanks for that. How big is opponents stack?

"You" in this sense can (should) only mean the effective stacks, as otherwise you're not "deepstacked" but have a "big stack."

Sweet. Clear.

I'm going to put my 2 cents into this. I believe that there is a problem with the way you're calculating your odds in this hand. The 4.9 to 1 is the correct figure of 64o against AA or KK. However, it appears to me that if we play this hand we should adjust our odds as if we are playing against both AA and KK.

As pointed out by aliengenius, in that seminar the answer to the question " what hands would you play against AA?", was "any hand". That, as it seems you all understood, is because of the power of knowledge.

The knowledge that we have here is that our opponent is holding AA or KK, so I'm wondering if because of that you need to adjust the way you're calculating odds. To make an example, if the flop is K-6-4 or A-6-4, are you willing to risk 100 or more BB by calling all the way to the river? It appears to me that you will have to defend against both AA and KK, almost as if you're playing this hand against 2 opponents, one holding AA the other holding KK. So, if I'm right, you need to adjust odds accordingly since they no longer will be 4.9 to 1. Perhaps I'm wrong but that's what it seems to me.

Right. We're really, really hoping for an (at most) queen-high flop if we are to play this hand, because half the time we're going to make really expensive mistakes when an ace or a king flops.

Then the probability of at least 1 of those things happening (I think) should be: 1 - (the probability of all these things not happening)

1 - [47/48 x (70/71) x (332/333)] = 3.75% (approximate, exact figure below)

To go back to ChuckTs question then,

0.037523438931889636114988227664284 x "Mr AA DeepStack" must be equal to the 3 bets we call x (0.96247656106811036388501177233572)

(i.e. the amount we win when we hit the flop = the amount we lose over an infinite number of hands)

Or, Mr AA DeepStack needs to have about 77 BB in his stack if our EV is to be positive when we just plan to see the flop (again, assuming he will call your all-in). This is nice because then we don't have to make other assumptions about how much he'll bet on the flop and turn.