Hypothetical WSOP card-reading software question (lol)

Okay, you've entered the WSOP. Let's assume there are 5,000 entrants, that the structure is as it usually is (Google for it if you really care, but just knowing it's a slow structure should be sufficient), and that you are a player of completely average ability when compared with the rest of the field.

The day before the event starts, someone comes to you, saying that they have developed some magic new 'see your opponents holecards while playing live' software, available for only $39.99! You, being of questionable morals and questionable naivety, decide to purchase the software.

It actually works.

You go into the WSOP being able to see all your opponent's holecards.

My question is this - given all of the above and the fact that you can magically 'see' all your opponent's holecards, what is the likelihood, percentage-wise, of you winning the WSOP?

A couple of final assumptions - there is a 0% chance of being caught, and none of the other players will suspect that you have magic hole-card reading software, because the very thought is absurd. ^^

0-20%.

even if you only call all ins with a 95% chance to win, you'll have to do it like what, 25 times before you get to the final table? and you're like 27% to survive all of those.

I voted 20-40%. I guess the reasoning is that you wouldn't have to get yourself into any coinflip situations. Never go all-in until the river. Take as much money off of stealing bluffs. Steal blinds when nobody has a preflop hand. There would be alot of situations where you could pickup small pots.

Very good question. It would be interesting. I would have loved to say that I would 100% of the time, but, I'm not that good and I know it.

I heard Phil Helmuth say one time that he could beat anybody at Hold'em even if they could see his hole cards. I would love to test that theory and shut him up.

I say at least fifty percent. You would easily be able to take down smaller pots, spot all river bluffs, and fold when your beaten. The steady money will out weigh the allin losses. Especially if you avoid allins with big stacks

What makes you think we're going to have to be all-in anywhere near that often?

We can avoid all-in confrontations because of the slow structure and the fact that thanks to our 'gift' we can easily accumulate chips and remain ahead of the blinds, right? I mean, if both villain and us have 250BB stacks, villain shoves preflop (with let's say KK) and we have Aces, what do we do?

I fold. I don't want a race even if I am way ahead. Avoid all-ins like the plague.

Just fold and wait for the guy with 100 BB push with a hand you have dominated

If you could see the whole cards of all your oppenents all the time you would have to be a total donk and be very unlucky to win less than 80% of the time. You can never be bluffed, you can bluff mediocre hands, you can lay down even a big hand when you are beat. You should avoid all-ins until after the river card when you know if you will win or not. It's possible that you could get very unlucky and bleed chips to bad beat after bad beat but you should be able to build up a stack enough to withstand that. You would also know when you have the best hand and your opponent has a very good second place hand. You can get a lot of extra chips knowing that.

The only reason I say 80% rather than 100% is when heads up you might get sucked out on when ahead. Say villan goes all-in preflop with K-9 and you have pocket aces and he ends up flopping a set or something.

Probably 0% for me. I'd get cute and try to bluff someone off of a weak hand, they'd call me anyway and I'd be busted.

Heh the % would be very high if you went about it in the correct way. Avoiding big all-ins would be advisable, folding your AA pf to KK would be correct, because your edge at showdown would be so great. Easy to spot bluffs, betting for value takes on a whole new dimension.

Now for the shock news, Dorkus magic software sunglasses only $49.95 !!!!

What do they do, make everyone look like Dorkus?

Call me optimistic ... 90-99 percent.

We're sitting very deep most of the time and won't have to depend on the luck of the draw (ie AIPF).

Think about it though; vs aggro players who are making moves, we just call them down when they're betting air, and shut them out if the board gets a little scary for us. We'll know exactly what the blinds are holding, and stealing will be a cake walk.

Maybe 90-99 is pretty unrealistic, but being able to pin your opponent on an exact hand is a hugeeee advantage...

I think 99%, since information is power.

So there we are, at the final table. If we are going to guarantee ourselves a win using our special gadget or whatever, we must never go all-in before the river or we run the risk of being outdrawn.

You don't suppose someone, at some point, is going to notice that we're a bit, eh, weak-tight? "Hey, if I move all-in, this here fella folds!" Or worse, any large flop bet is usually enough to scare us off since we might be pot committed if we call. I'm not saying we don't stand a good chance; I'm merely suggesting that we're not better than 50% to win.

this^and because of featured tables, folding AA will look very odd.

No one catches on to what we are doing, almost a certainty you make the final table. Once there, too many all-ins to be a lock.

I dunno

If you had this magic, and did not win, THAT would be the more interesting question.

Personally, I would never stoop to such low, card marking type tricks. Makes me questions someones morality. Impunes the very nature of most of us. Trouble, right here in River City.

Speaking of the river.....

Seems this might be best for those times when you show your bluffs. See that no one has anything and then show your 89 unsuited all in that got them all to fold.

It might not be that straight forward though. That card dead phase that lasts weeks might strike at any time, and it wouldn't matter what magic one has then. In that scenario at best it would tell us what the other guy was doing with his big bets.

Great bluff buster is about all it might be.

And you forgot to include just what device would be allowed to run software at a final table, Better change that to X-Ray glasses. Then pray villian is not whatshername.

I voted 70-80%. There is that 20-30% you get in an all in situation and get outdrawn with flush draws and back door straights.

If i know all the players cards then I know i will be heads up for the championship.
My big bets will come after river card is delt.
I can never be bluffed and I will never try to bluff anyone with the nuts.
The only problem is if I get heads up against someone who just pushes all in on every hand and he can suck out even if i have better hole cards.
Other then that how can anyone say its a slim chance.
Everyone always talks about reads and if you know peoples carfd then you are a perfect 100% reader.

Vary this notion for the next poll, you can't see the other players cards, but you can see all the board cards.

Same uncertainties I think.

You cannot play poker without risk. You will win every showdown but you cannot play to the showdown each time without getting sucked out on.

What do you do when someone goes all-in after the flop on a flush draw. You know he is bluffing but do you risk on a 1/3 or if he does it on the turn and has the 1/5 to hit.

You can laydown to a trap but what if someone hits two pair on the river and you are forced to fold a big pot 2 times in a row when they get lucky.

Poker is still gambling. It is very hard to guarantee anything till the river and I don't think you can get there often enough to take it all down.

90-99%

I would say 100%, but you did say average player. If you had said a very experienced, pro player (not named Mike Matusow or Gus Hansen) I would have said it was an absolute certainty.

You have to take into account, those of you who said you might lose races, with this "ability" you wouldn't put yourself in races. You have the ability to see when you will have the best hands and when it is absolutely obvious that an all-in won't hurt. There is no need to go all-in about 25 times, like Joose said might happen. I doubt at any point in the tourney I would need to go all-in if I knew the holecards. Just steal nice pots, and when you know people are obviously bluffing at you, it'll be easy to push them off their hands.

Also, the reason why I think it'll be very easy to win is, with this ability you will most certainly be the chip leader from the moment you win your first pot to the final hand of the tourney. Not just the chip leader, but the overwhelming chip leader throughout the tourney, at the final table, and then finally when you're HU when you might have to finally take some gambles (very calculated gambles) but with an overwhelming chip lead.

I think it is definitely quite certain for an average player with a basic straight forward strategy to win the main event by knowing the hole cards.

Yeah I agree 90-99%, if you play your cards right. I mean what else do you want? A software to predict the board as well? Thats basically as good as it gets right?

you would have the most weak-tight PF image ever. if i saw you folding to every strong raise PF i would constantly be raising you regardless of cards.

If you're smart enough to know how to use this to its full ability, I have no doubt the percentage to win outright should be something like 90-99%. Your edge would just be absolutely ridiculous. But it's hard for me to guess how well an "average" player would use this ability.

We should have built up a monstrous stack all throughout the tournament with these abilities to the point where we'll have the biggest stack or be among the biggest stacks at the final table. We can call all-ins with cards to come when we see we have a big enough edge against stacks that are small enough to wreck us; it should be enough to keep others from thinking they can just shove and we're gone. Is an "average" player in question smart enough to pull this off at least decently? I should hope so.

Plus, I think you may be overestimating the amount of times players are going to just straight shove all-in on a bluff at the FT of a tournament with this kind of structure. I doubt it would get to the point where everyone thinks "oh, if I just shove he folds"... if it happens two or three times they'll likely just figure we had crap that hand, and after that point they'll likely think we may be getting "fed up" with it and won't want to press their luck.

Even if you are a big stack, the small stacks won't have enough chips to play to the river. Once you start the final 20 or 30 they are the ones pushing all-in. You won't get to control them to the river. You will still only make calls when ahead but most all-in preflops are 50/50 or 60/40. How do you control the whole tournament to the end without knocking out people with preflop all-ins? Heads up, you don't think the shortstack will just push preflop. You can see his cards and know you are ahead but even AA gets cracked. No way can you say 90%.

I would notice in a hour or two if you kept folding to big bets. It would not take any expert to see this live when there is nothing else going on around you. You only call if you have the nuts or close to it, that will get taken advantage of eventually. Calling all bluff would get noticed too and any decent player will notice that after awhile. You would have to let one get by you to show you are not bullet proof.

Why are people acting like we're always going to be in situations where shortstacks will get the chance to shove all their chips in when they're behind? We can easily maneuver ourselves into situations where WE'RE the ones shoving when we know our opponent can't possibly call (i.e. opponent has 89clubs, flop AK4 rainbow, or the million other ways you can completely whiff a flop to the point where he can't possibly call even if he knows you're bullying).

If you knew what you were doing, it would be pretty easy and likely to get yourself into numerous spots where you can be the one pushing the chips in, knowing your opponent will fold well over 95% of the time (and even when they call you're a favorite). I still think people are greatly underestimating the versatility of this power.

I might as well ask since there is a probababily that you might actually have this software. Can I get it for free?

I agree with you combuboom, that's why i say 99%, leaving out that 1% chance where something totally crazy happens.

Two points:
1. Our ability to build a huge stack from the beginning of the tournament should allow us to race the short stacks (who can't hurt us too badly even if we lose) with a 60/40 or better advantage in the later stages of the tournament.
2. We have fold equity as well (to non all in raises). So you can't just start making "strong raises" to get us to fold prefolp-- we just see when you are out of line and come back over the top, making you the one that folds.

congratulations, you won my topic! ~DM


Didn't know it was a contest but, wheeeeee, does that mean I win the DM "Approved and Perfected Hole Cards Revealed Sunglasses" for the next Main Event??

Nah, you just win some rep for saving me the hassle of writing a long-winded follow-up post.

I think it's clearly >90%, for reasons already stated by Estelle and combuboom. We start off deepstacked, and there's no reason, given our 'gift', that we need ever become shortstacked. We can keep pots small and manageable preflop, and steal blinds when everyone behind us has junk in order to keep our stack ticking over.

As long as we vaguely know and understand what we're doing (I understand how pointing out that we should treat ourselves as a completely 'average' player could cause problems), it should be very difficult for us to lose.

Lol, now that I read Estelle's 1st post, did Jamie Gold maybe...?