A Hypothetical Analysis

Okay, lets say I'm in the BB in a 6max NLHE game and and hold 8h4d. 1st and 2nd to act fold, 3rd calls, 4th folds, the small blind calls and I check. Everyone has even stacks.

Flop comes like this...

7c7h4c

SB checks. What do I do here?

I run into this problem a lot and would like to know how to deal with it.

Well your hand to begin with was pretty poor, but the big blind can call with anything with no preflop raise. This gives you plenty of scope to bluff when the flop looks hamless to your competition. On this occassion you flopped second pair. With only two numbered cards on the table i'd say this was a good flop for you and would raise to win it right then. He would be foolish to think that one of those cards couldn't have helped you as you were the BB. If he calls and a face card comes on the turn then you have to be a little bit more carefull. But usually you won't get this far with a decent size flop raise.

Your only concern from my view point would be the flush draw. Checking here would be ciminal as you'd be giving them a free card to draw if that was the case.

Raise and win the flop.

Bet 3/4 pot and see what happens.

If you get raised then fold.

If you get called then worrie about a higher pair.

If you get the guy in 3rd to fold, then you have position on the SB, so you can probably check the turn

Only 2 opponents and you did get a piece of it so standard spot for me to semi-bluff raise 1/2 pot and see if opponents fold and give it to me. If I get a re-raise I fold since pairs on board can be deadly. If I get callers then I only continue if the hand checks the rest of the way. I would hate to get trips with another 4 and then lose my stack to a boat. But I am a fairly timid player protecting a small bankroll. So this is the scared money play.

Check, what worse hands are you planning to have call you? 46? 33? I guess there are some draws, so betting isn't that bad, but I'd probably just try to check this down.

You are just the person I was looking for!

Reason being, is because I usually semi-bluff at this, and when I do get a caller post flop, I tend to toss the hand to any resistance. But what I'm worried about is what I see when I'm on the other side of this flop. When I'm holding Ax (suited or unsuited) this flop also looks like a nice spot to semi-bluff and I usually tend to call any decent raise.

When I'm holding the 84 hand is it plausible that the villain could also be holding Ax and just trying to ride out the storm hoping for an ace? What should my thinking be, if I get called on a semi, on what my villain might have? Reads are going to be tough because of no defining raises preflop.

I guess what I'm asking is this; What is the math that determines the best possible holdings for the villain? I can easily put him on a range of 89s+, A9o+(probably even lower in the stakes I play), 22+. This is what, about 75% of all hands out there.

This is one hand, and yeah, I could check it down or let it go to a raise, but I would really like to win it. I just want to know what would be the optimal play to be the most +EV.

If you check this hand you will lose it. Period. If you bet at least 3/4 the pot (prefer to pot the bet), you have 2 ways to win. Either villain will fold because he was holding high cards and the bb can check with any cards, or villain calls with uncoordinated (unpaired) cards hoping you are bluffing.

While not the most ideal holding, and full of jeopardy, you still have 2 pair! While I appreciate that there may be math solutions here, this seems to me to be more about player control than about the math. Switching hands where you are in position, and villain in the bb bets out healthy, you say you are often hanging in with Ax praying for an A, This is the chasing move IMO, and makes it worse than a PF coin flip. however, it is a situation we all see often enough to warrant a big discussion. A thinking player might see this flop as one more likely to hit the bb unless he holds x7. For some peculiar reason most of us discount the bb having any hand unless he bets it big. The fact that he was allowed to check his way into this action makes him the most unknowable hand in play. So when I'm in your scenario, I'm gonna make sure they understand I am not affraid of that flop.

With resistance you back down, but more often than not you win this with a bet, and not with a check!

What do you do when you check here and villain bets. His thinking is that you showed no strength, and can be bet off this hand.

This is a 6 handed hypothetical game where the players are going to understand (usually) that aggression is key.

IMSO (in my stupid opinion)

I bet these low paired flops when I'm first to act in a limped pot regardless of my hand. I might have Q6os and bet this. Generally only 1/2 pot and I'm never getting involved beyond the flop unless I improve but unless one of the limpers just never fold I'm betting here.

And this is why I'm asking this question. This hand could almost be in the same category as AA vs. KK, imo. You stand to either win a big hand or lose a big hand if you play this hard. I'm just a math retard and want to know how many times can we expect to win a big hand over losing a big hand, because if we're holding 84 we have the proverbial AA.

Yeah, its easier to semi-bluff at this pot, because the semi-bluff is easier to play. With a hand like 5c6c, you'll pretty much always know where you stand, and you won't be faced with any difficult decisions. But with a bluff catcher like a pair of 4's, you will be bluffed on the river & be forced to lay down the best hand, or you'll call value bets with the worst of it.

If you're newer to ring games, I'd just check down these bluff catchers down. Passing up on the value of a pair of 4's in this spot is a tiny tiny mistake, and it keeps you from making a giant mistake later in the hand.

Thats the reason I would bet this flop and a sizable bet too.

If the villian folds then you win.

If the villian raises then you fold as you could easily be beat.

If the villian calls then you have infomation as to the strength of his hand.

However

If you check, you loose all fold equity.

If he then checks, you gain no infomation as to his hand.

You allow him a free card.

If he raises (he may feel that you have nothing) then you will fold.

Also by checking here, how do you proceed with future rounds?

Will you fold to any bet or will you call a bet on the river?

I just feel that a bet here makes your decisions easier for the rest of the round.

If he calls, you will want to check the pot down and will find it easier to fold to any bet he makes. You will also show some strength which may reduce his betting on later rounds fearing a trap.

If he raises, you will fold.

You may get him to fold a higher pair.

No you really won't.

There are two villains in this hand, and with the pot this small, we don't have a ton of fold equity. If this is the stakes I'm thinking of, villain will be calling with a range that is fairly strong against our hand. He'll call with some overcards he thinks is pretty, most pocket pairs 22-99, some draws, other 4's, and slowplayed 7's. And his range will be pretty well balanced between bluffs & value hands (even if accidentally balanced), and it won't be the easiest thing to play against OOP. And most villains won't have a problem betting this river if they have nothing, since its such a cheap bluff to make, and you will have checked two streets to them.

OK, cool I see that

I think what stu is saying is that if we bet out, more than likely the SB is going to fold. Especially if we bet and there's one caller. At least then we have taken out one hand. The other, we have gained a little bit of info on. We can be pretty sure that he doesn't have a 7. We aren't looking at 88+ either, because at the stakes we're playing these hands would probably be raised preflop.

This narrow it down basically to paint cards and straight draws that can beat us. 33 and lower we have dominated.

Yeah that is what I was thinking.

From what C9 was saying, he dosnt think that chances ofgetting the SB to fold are that high.

If you want only 1 person to fold here you don't want it to be the SB. He's the only person we have position on and we can control the pot size a lot easier if he's the only called to our flop bet.

I'm assuming this is 10NL, and that you've recently started playing, and you don't have a HUD or reads. At 10NL, if you bet 20 cents into 30 cents, you're likely getting a call from 1 of the two villains, most likely the one who has position on you.

If this were me, I'd bet this flop at the stakes I play at. But I have a HUD, I think I read hands pretty well, and I'm comfortable calling/folding to bets later in the hand based on turn & river cards plus villain's bet sizing.

I do have a HUD, this hand is based on any micro games, and I feel I'm a pretty good player post flop.

The stats on the HUD are not really relevant in my situation right now as all I have are around six months worth of HH in them.

Well villain's aggression frequency converges pretty quickly, same with VPIP & PFR, so that should give you pretty good info to go by. I guess I thought you were a bigger newbie than you were, and I'd advise a newer player to justy x/f. You really aren't giving up much edge at all by checking here.

But if I put money in this pot, I'm not "done with the hand". I'll probably check most turns & rivers, but I will be looking to bluff catch more aggressive players when cards that miss their range hits.

Okay, sorry I didn't give that info out earlier. I didn't really think it mattered much.

So, with that out, what stats should I be looking at to get a handle on what villain could be holding. And what's a good/bad percentage on that stat?

Well villains with tighter numbers will hold more overcards & more small pairs. So a 20/4 that limped is going to be holding a lot of KJ, JTs, 66 type hands. A 60/2 player is pretty much holding everything.

And so lets say a 20/4/35% player limps, we get this flop, we bet, SB folds, and villain calls. With those stats, if the turn checks through and is a blank (like a 2), I'd be willing to call a river bet on any card T-2, because there aren't a lot of cards in his range that have T-2's in them.

If we were dealing with a 60/2/25% type of player, then our life just sucks, since they're not that aggressive & their range is stupid wide. Any overcard could give them a bigger pair, 3's complete straight draws, clubs make flush draws. So I'd prolly fold more vs. a loose-passive.

Okay, thanks C9. That helps out quite a bit.

The only thing I can say is you CANNOT check.
That being said it comes down to how much can you bet. 1/2 the pot, 2/3, Pot?

As Stu pointed out you need to put in a bet to get whatever info you can.
If one of the players folds, you are at least heads up and holding a pair.

Depending on the other players image (and your own as well) you can decide how to bet.

I think in most cases you can take down this pot, checking will just allow someone to see a free card and draw out on you.

Just my .02