Huge drop in W$SD% - wtf?

Originally Posted by skithetrees

I play $10NL FR at 18/12 and have been averaging around 12bb/100 for the past 50k hands. All of a sudden in the last 2 sessions of 2,500 hands my W$SD% has dropped from 54% to 40% and I'm down 5BIs. My numbers have stayed about the same and I've actually tightened up a little to 17/12. Aggression factor has stayed the same at 3.10.

A few questions:
1) Is the 50k hands too small a number to get a true idea of my ability at this level? 12bb/100 is a nice winrate - 50K is enough to say that you're doing well. Thinking about moving up yet?
2) What should I be looking for to explain the drop in W$SD%, or is this simply variance? Has your WTSD increased? That's a huge drop. Some of this could be variance, but I would think you're now looking villains up lighter than you were, or pushing in situations you didn't before, which would increase your WTSD. Has your winrate changed, or is it consistent? Have you looked at your showdown vs. non-showdown winning rates? You may want to post your stats here: *** May Micro Grinder Thread 2NL - 25NL *** Look at posts 147 ff. on page 5 for an example of posting stats. You'll want to review your stats for the last 2500 hands separate from the rest before posting, I think.
3) The W$SD% comes from HEM. Does this # also include the small checked down pots? Yes Is there a way of getting your win% on pots that were actually played? Dunno - maybe someone else knows a way to filter for this - but this shouldn't have a significant impact on your overall winrate unless you're really loose pf, and it doesn't sound like you are...

Thanks in advance for your help.

Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse

I will happen to you quite often if you play a significant volume.