How Much to bet on a semi-bluff?

Situation:
.10/.25 NL Hold 'EM, Full Ring on Bodog.

Under the gun, I have 9cTc. I raise to .80.

There are four callers.

Flop is Jc8h4c.

I have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Pot is $3.30.

How much should I be here?

Gary the Worden

I bet $1.50 and took down the pot.

UTG and u raise with 9cTc ?

What would u have done if someone had come over your flop bet and put u all in?

lol since u raised with this hand i see no problem checking it here and maybe inducing a bet from someone else. u raised and may be able to get someone to bluff at it. u are almost certain to have the most number of outs here so y lead out when u dont have anything at this point? maybe with a check u make ure hand and someone else get s card they wanted. i guess i understand the bet here but on this flop i think checking wouldve been just as good of an option.

like ronald said what if ure RR preflop?

I fold.

You're burning money.

I'd bet what I usually bet, ~2.25-3.00.

Why did you post an analysis and then two minutes later give us the result? Allow more time in the future for input

I would bet around 2/3 pot with your draw. If you are reraised, we need to know stack sizes and player notes before thinking any further.

Explain please.

Standard c-bet in to a 3.30 pot.

Thanks for the response. Yes, odd that I posted the result. But it's not really a results-oriented question. I'm interested in how more experienced players see the situation.

My idea in the pre-flop raise was that I had a decent drawing hand and wanted to build the pot in case I hit. I was happy with the flop and really just want to know how to size a semi-bluff.

K, so there's 3.30 in the pot, and you bet $1.50. If your opponent goes all in for $24.20, then...

Pot Size = 3.30 + 1.50 + 1.50 + 22.70 = $29
Price of Call = $22.70
Pot Odds = 1.28:1

Even if your opponent has a set, you have a 1.4:1 draw to win by the river. And your opponent's range is much larger than just sets. Against top pair, you're a 57% favorite to win by the river. So even if they put you all in, you should still call.

If you fold to a raise with this draw, you are burning money, because its such a strong hand. We don't need to know any stack sizes or notes, or any of that other BS. You're out of position with a huge draw, you should be shoving all in if you get the chance at least 95% of the time.

How much would you bet if you had pocket aces?

Thanks very much for the detailed response. I sized my raise in the hopes of getting a call or a re-raise. I wasn't expecting a large re-raise and would have folded, although your explanation gives me pause. I'll have to think about this and let it sink in. Now you're saying I shouldn't wait to respond to a raise, I should be PUSHING all in on this flop? My initial response to that is that I'd be missing a chance to build the pot. Respond please. Thanks.

Pocket aces? I would probably have tried to protect them against four potential callers. Probably bet pot sized or more. Had this been the case, I would have been wary of a set on a re-raise.

No, you don't want to over bet. You wouldn't mind a chance to shove all in here, but to start with just bet your normal c-bet of between 65-90% of the pot. If you get raised, then we're certainly going to shove all in. But you have to start small. If you just immediately raise all in, you're only going to get called by hands that have you beaten. You want to get action from all the hands that you can beat.

After the flop, you bet about what I would have. Checking if you think you can get a free card is also legit in my mind.
Preflop, I think a raise with suited connectors is perfectly legit. You don't want to only raise when you have AA.

There really isn't a hand that has you beat in terms of chances of winning by the river. Open ended straights with flushes beats two pair or even a set about 55-45, but I agree you want action from as many people as you can because usually if you can beat one opponent, you can beat all 4 (because you made a straight or flush).

I would bet $1.50 and take it down right there
TBH, suited or not, the hand you decided to play was total garbage and you got real lucky.
Playing these types of hands from UTG/EP are -EV in the long run.

well, i think with four callers u can check in ur UTG position and wait that top pair JJ bet after u to make selection on other pre-flop callers.
Then, when is ur turn, u re-raise his bet x2.

I think ur opponent will not think to your project but a pair highest (QQ / KK / AA) because you raise pre-flop in UTG (hence he believes you are very strong).

So he probably will only call or even leave, but you will in any case taken a strong psychological advantage.

p.s.: i think occasionally a crazy raise we can do.
In fact in this case it's happened a strong hand, which can easily disorient others and make a beautiful pot.

For me, this would be a classic mini-raise to see a 'free' turn when I potentially have a very strong hand. Being UTG, I would also be ready to call any raise - If not, no point of betting in the first place.

I very much appreciate the discussion. It's interesting that there's such a range of opinions among such knowledgeable players: anything from "garbage hand" to near monster.

I guess I somewhat disagree with those who think a pre-flop raise is uncalled for. Medium suited connectors are worth a shot. Should I limp into an unraised pot? I almost always choose to make an initial raise. First to maintain an aggressive style and image. Second because I gain more info about the strength of opponents' hands when I raise rather than limp. Third because if I should connect on the flop, I want there to be some money in the pot. Yes, I got lucky with the flop, but I only risked .80 to see it. I might very well have stolen the blinds with that bet - or perhaps have run into a big hand/big raise and been able to fold pre-flop without much damage.

How often will you guys play suited connectors or A-suited hands in early position? How often will you raise with them.

Your comments have opened my eyes about the strength of the hand post-flop. The flop gave me a drawing hand. I would likely have seen it as only a drawing hand and folded to a significant raise. But I need to remember that a good drawing hand like this can actually be favored over a made hand like trips or big pair.

Thanks for the help all, especially c9, James, and norbs. Shinedown, I'd be interested in hearing more about the garbage/negative eV aspect.
Gary

In general, suited connectors flop draws, and unless you flop a 12+ out draw like you did here, its hard to play draws profitably out of position. Its much easier to see free cards & control the size of the pot when you're in position.

If you play your draws differently than AA then you are giving away too much information.

Exactly. How much to bet shouldn't depend on what you're holding at all. It should be depend on the board, position, and your opponent.

Out-of-position with a monster draw, this is where I'd be check-raising. You want your opponent to put something in the pot, then you apply the pressure. And, if he checks, you get your free card. I'd only lead out here if my opponent was a passive better.

With your hand I would try a bigger bet to get the pot, and move on to the next hand...Maybe $1.50 or so...I think that would give you the pot!

I think you're a little confused the negative aspect of your play here is opening with 9Ts UTG. After you flop the big draw, I'm willing to get it all-in if possible. Since you're first to act with 4 others in the pot, I think a check, with the plan to raise when someone bets, best accomplishes that goal.

Lisen glworden... you have an outside straight and 1 card to a flush... so in total you have 16 cards in the deck that can give you want you want... there are 47 cards not revealed to you at the flop... so the odds would be 16/47 on the turn and 16 out of 46 on the river... lets just assume its 32 over 47 even though its very slightly bigger... you are a huge favorite!! more than 66%!! plus i doubt the person had a jack so you could also count the 6 cards that would give you a pair, giving you 44 out of 47!! come on... thats ninety something % chance to get something! right now ur not semi bluffing, your raising to build the pot as you said, so we have that straight. Now.. you would usually raise that amount, the 1.50, in order to test out your opponents hand, but in this case its probably usless cause youll beat it if you make one of those good hands almost for sure, so what you want is to either build the pot a bit, or slow play. I would suggest slow playing cause a lot of the times the button tries to take a shot at the pot. If so then you can call to set up for a bigger move, or reraise; this depends on who your playing... i wouldnt raise the flop since the previous choice sounds easier, but depending on who you are playing you can decide for yourself... if its someone who always calls then sure do it! you want them to call. and you can put another raise on the turn even if you dont catch it! cause on the river if you do catch, your opponent wont really know hwa tyou have, probably thinking a fair or good pair, and if he has anything to compete against that, youll take his money for sure .

I think you are fine in this situation.

In Consideration that you are pot betting.
Most cases you will get a good read from this bet, and the possibility that you could take the pot is always good.

I would not choose to do this unless you're well updated on your players, and you're getting some tale tell sign of weakness not only in this hand, but possibly for a large period of hands.

If you get the lucky pot, sweet. But in most online poker hands I would just check!

Good point, but easy to say, hard to do. And I'm not sure the advice is entirely valid. I posted the question as a semi-bluff situation but have been educated as to the strength of the hand. But let's say I do have a draw that's not quite as strong, or even have pure crap but want to bluff here. Would you really play that the same as AA? I agree with you that disguising your play through consistent opening bets is important, but after a re-raise things change.

You are right. Bluff or monster - don't give away info.

But if there's a big re-raise, I'm not going to ride a failed bluff to my demise, whereas I would likely come back strong with AA, hoping there is no set or 2Pair. I don't think this contradicts what you're saying though.

If you size your bets based on the strength of your hand then your observant opponents will be able to exploit you.

Not a bad play if you're table image is unpredictable, but at a loose table I'm not sure if I would even play T9o under the gun. With a straight and a flush draw and the action to me, I might bet a third of the pot hoping no one would reraise.