How Good is Your Starting Hand Really?

Not trying to nitpick here, just seeking to make sure that I really do understand.

Three comments/questions:

1. Steve Brecher asked about the starting hand KQ$ in clubs, How many of the other 1225 hands were 'better' than this starter . . . .

My recollection is that the 169 possible card combinations, with precise suits accounted for, created exactly 1326 possible hands. So if Steve had said, "How many of the other 1325 hands are better", I would not have been surprised but there's a hundred hand difference, if this was just a 'minor slipup' on his part, no problem. But if there really IS a hundred hand difference how does one account for it?

If the three equal hands are dropped out (KQ$ in spades, diamonds, and hearts) that leaves 1322.

If all pairs in which a club is NOT included 1/2 (13 X 6) = 39 are dropped out of his calculations, that would leave us with 1283. I do not see the justification for dropping these hands out, by the way, so if this is what's been done . . . why exactly is it justified?

And since I don't see any reason to drop out any other hands, I'm totally confused by the number 1225 which he used. Simple mistake, or am I missing something?

2. Loved the concept of 'showdown equity'!!!! Only thing I'd say, IF the correct number of possible opposing hands is 1325 rather than 1225, then the percentages would have to be refigured and slightly adjusted (e.g. 238/1225 compared to 238/1325 is a difference of about 2% numerically and 8% comparatively) to make them correct.

3. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that the most startling thing about the chart Steve included at the bottom of the article is how much stronger the conventionally acknowledged strong starting hands are when played from real late positions and conversely, how very little it matters if you play semi-junk (e.g. 65$) from any position IF one is allowed to limp in rather than pay to draw. Is this a proper interpretation of Steve's lesson and what strategic implications, if any, spring from it? Thanks for reading and commenting.

With math like that, I hope they let me bring a calculator to the game

All in Fun


I think you may be over analyzing things.

Numbers are OK.
Averages are Better.
Statistics are Great.
Probabilities are Fantastic.

If it takes intersecting graphs and dissecting intervals to determine what to do and when to do it.
Someone will take all your chips and be on there way.

This is just my Opinion of course.


I'm not in any way criticizing the fact that you may or may not have found an error.

All I'm saying is poker is Situational and the numbers behind it are important but a small variable in the decision making of the game.

If we were playing against Bots and Computers I would be wrong.
We are playing against people, and people make a large percentage of there decisions based on thoughts and feelings.


Roller:
Enjoy the numbers but Respect the Complexities of the Game.

Good Luck at the Tables

I have to say that i totally agree with the 3rd point. You can be playing
almost anything, and if you find yourself in the right circumstances, you
can definitly have the edge to with the pot. Cards like 6 5 suited are huge
when limping in in my opinion. If someone was to raise you, and you call
with 6 5, you will almost surly be raised on the flop, and almost surly
have to fold. But if you limp in, and if your in a good position, youll
probably get a few more free cards to catch that straight or flush or yours.

It's great to know probabilities of starting hands. Just like in life, the higher risk you take , the great possibility of a high reward. Notice that there isn't a starting hand that is a guarantee to always win. In my mind, as great as it is to know the probabilities and having guidelines, they are just where you are placed to start a race. 2 3 off suit can out race AA. It's not how you to start a race, but how you finish it.

Sure, suited connectors can be great if played at the right time under the right circumstances...However, play them too often or at the wrong time once too often, and you''l end up short stacked very quickly. Once you get short, it puts you in a position where you don't want to jump into pots unless you're in the lead or feel strongly about the hand. These are great hands to play in tourneys where you are in a dominant position, where even if you don't connect, the power of your stack can still win pots for you.