How to fold KK preflop profitably in a cash game--

A leak that I have discovered in my game recently is the decision to call a 3-bet or 4-bet all-in for my stack when holding 140BB+ only to find myself up against AA. These cooler hands have had the effect of decimating my session winnings and causing me to break even or worse after several hours of play. So, after a loss of 200BB in one hand last night, I decided to find out if there is a better way to play KK in this situation preflop. After some research prompted by this great post, I have arrived at what I believe is a great way to make a profitable call or fold decision preflop. I welcome your thoughts, criticisms, etc. on this line-

Quick note: This post assumes two things- You are playing a NLHE ring game, and your opponent has 3-bet or 4-bet all-in preflop. It's your move- What do you do?


It is my belief that you can make a profitable call or fold every time based on three important factors:

1. Your opponent's range of hands
2. Your pot equity versus your opponent's range of hands
3. Your pot odds to call his all-in bet preflop

Step One: Assign a range of hands to your opponent.

One of the most important player notes you can make in my opinion regards a players range of hands that he will stack with before the flop. During a session, if I ever notice an all-in confrontation preflop I will immediately make a note on both players noting the hand that the player raised or called all-in with. This information is critical to consider when you are holding KK against a 3-bet or 4-bet all-in preflop.

In most cases, a typical deep stack player will not 3-bet all-in before the flop with less than KK. Occasionally, you will find players that have a range including AK and QQ. An exception that can be found often to this is a player employing a shortstack strategy of buying in for 20-40BB, and stacking w/ AK, TT or better. If you're lucky, you'll find a player raising all-in with a large range, which can be very profitable! Typically, I have found these players in shorthanded situations online, and they are holding less than 40BB in their stack. So, here is a conservative general guideline--This is no substitute for player notes!!:

• If the player has bought in for 20-40BB, his range will usually be in the neighborhood of AKs, TT+ or AKs, QQ+. I would assume a tighter range the closer to 40BB he is.
• If the player bought in for 40-100BB or is a regular, it is likely that he has KK or better, although you will find AK and QQ occasionally.
• If you have no information to the contrary on a deep stacked player (100BB+), it is better IMO to assume that you are up against at least KK, unless you have a note that widens his range to AK!!. If you are not averse to throwing a stack here and there with KK, then this post is probably not for you.

Steps 2 and 3: Calculate your pot equity vs. your opponent's hand range, and the pot odds necessary to call his bet.

There are 5 basic situations that I will address for simplicity (all percentages are rounded)

1. KK vs. AA
2. KK vs. AA or KK
3. KK vs. AA, KK, AK
4. KK vs. AA, KK, AK, QQ
5. KK vs. who knows what this donkey has?

KK vs. AA
If you knew that your opponents hand was exactly AA, would it still be correct to call? The answer depends on your pot odds-

You are 82% to lose in this proposition, and you need roughly 4.5:1 odds to profitably call in this situation. Here are two examples illustrating this concept:

Example 1: (Both players have $100, blinds are $1 and $2, both blinds folded)
Player holds AA and raises to $4 (pot is now $7)
You hold KK and reraise to $12 (pot is now $19)
The Blinds Fold
Player one re-raises all in (pot is now $115)

If you call, you are risking $88 to win $115. You are getting 1.3:1 on the call, and you should fold. (115/88=1.3)

Example 2: (Same hand, different raise sizes)
Player holds AA and raises to $20 (pot is now $23)
You hold KK and reraise to $65 (pot is now $88)
The Blinds Fold
Player re-raises all in (pot is now $168)

If you call, you are risking $35 to win $168. (168/35=4.8) You are getting 4.8:1 on the call, and you can profitably (in the long run) call for your stack here.

KK vs. AA, KK
Here, it gets a little more complex- Here's an example of how to do the calculation. How many possible hands are you up against in this range? There are six ways to make AA here: (s=spades, c=clubs, h=hearts, d=diamonds)

1. As Ac
2. As Ah
3. As Ad
4. Ac Ah
5. Ac Ad
6. Ah Ad

If you are up against KK, then your opponent holds the only two remaining kings in the deck, and there is only one way to make his hand. Thus, you are up against 7 possible hands here. Now, we calculate the equity for all possible combinations, and take the average to make an estimation of your opponent's probability to win (P):

AA vs. KK= 82% favorite
KK vs. KK= 50% (even money)

(82+82+82+82+82+82+50)/7=P
P=77.4%

You need roughly 3.4:1 to make a call profitably against this range.

KK vs. AA, KK, AK-
Your opponent is 53% to win here. You need about 1.1:1 to call. This means you will be calling the majority of the time. Bear in mind if the player is deep stacked, it is very important to have a player note specifying that he raises all-in w/ AK!! If you don't have this note, then you will likely be losing money over time making this assumption.

KK vs. AA, KK, AK, QQ and others-
After you add QQ to the mix, your opponents win rate dips below 50%, and you now have the advantage! You can call happily everytime, and if you bump up against aces, it's a cooler, but you had a note that this player 3-bets or 4-bets all-in w/ QQ+, and you can profitably make the call over time.


After working through all of this information, I have found that I can use this to exploit shortstacking regulars (roaches ) analyzing their hand range based on position, and my equity against them when I hold a premium hand preflop. I hope that this helps you make more profit in your sessions, and again, I welcome any useful critiques you have to offer.


THE END-- Stay tuned for odds against an unknown player-

wouldn't of agreed with ever folding KK preflop, but your info changed my mind

Good read!

Yea, great analysis, well-thought-out... made me think about kings in a different way

Some very thorough analysis. And you did mention in the OP that you were pretty deep (140bbs ). Anything up to 100bb, I'm not folding KK pf. More than that, and I agree, you have to play a bit differently.

This is great analysis, if it works for you, great. I know at the limits I play, I would NEVER fold KK preflop because people go all in at cash games with crap hands like 10-A, 55+, etc.

Then again, I usually don't buy in for 140 bb, but I wouldn't fold KK preflop anyway. I think it really depends on the limits you play.

Very interesting analysis....I'm most likely going to apply it next time I can afford a micro cash game !

Just one question there, regards on what you told us, which is a great post. I wanted to know if you try to slow play KK sometimes, as i'm able to do it in MTT, but maybe in cash game you don't afford others to call your hand?
Anyway i will try to keep in mind your post next time i play KK.
C ya.

I dont think i would ever fold KK preflop....how could you....even if you are up against AA u have to play that hand....if it is an all in u have to play...if it is a raise then call...if an ace hits then u may consider folding....but its a hard fold either way in my opinion

Reminds me of Dan Harrington's books. Very mathematical =) Thanks for the analysis, although, I doubt I would have the discipline to put it in play.

Thanks for teaching us this! I really appreciate the depth that you provided, can't wait for the next installment. And depending on the situation jtberrym, you should fold K K pre-flop. Say everyone at the table goes in, I think you would agree to fold K K for even A A can be cracked with so many players in on the hand.

interesting and very in depth analysis.. still itd be hard to fold kk preflop.. its hard to put your opponents on aces.. i mean thats just bad luck if someone gets aces when you have kings.. and against any other 2 cards.. you're still the favorite... so i guess no matter what you do.. folding kings is folding the 2nd best hand in poker... even the pros cant do it...

Very interesting........ how bout in tournaments? I've seen KK lose so many times lately I've begun only min raising or at the max 3x just to see the flop before committing so many chips. I guess it depends on the situation also and like danny021 said it is very hard to fold 2nd best hand.

I'd have to be at least 250BB deep to even consider folding KK preflop, unless the player is something like 6/2/1 and he 3-bets me.

woo, this is a great analysis, I would say from professional player.

I saw fold of that kind only by a few people (phil ivey for example).

I have to be sincere, having had to absorb several bad defeats with KK that calls the all-in, I find myself in total agreement with your reasoning.

That's all I can say about this thread--WOW!--Although I am up well over double my deposit at Ultimatebet--I am down all of it at PS! I would (might!) be up there too if I had seen this post first as I would NEVER have folded K-K under ANY circumstances! But after reading this, I will definetly take it under consideration AND use this info wisley! Thanks for what's destined for our 'Golden Archives' of posts!

you should never fold KK ever in a game of holdem. whether you put the person on aces or unless your cheating and you can see the other persons cards. then you can fold. but folding kings preflop whether theres a great amount of raising preflop is ridiculous. this could actually help you cause the raising indicates that people are strong and have high aces, lessening the odds of them hitting...you should never fold kings preflop

im sure you are right and it was a interesting read but I still would have a hard time folding that kind of a monster pocket pre flop

I think OP's post is good for the most part and provides some useful thoughts. But I think this strategy works well only in two instances -- 1) against very straightforward players; and 2) where you assume that there won't be any real post-flop play.

For me its very difficult to fold KK almost impossible.

The KK problem was a leak in my game also. I see a lot of people saying never fold them in hold'em. Once they get a better understanding of osition and pot odds, I think they'll change their minds.

In most of the games I play I see people going all in with just about any made or drawing hand. Now I have to agree that if I know that they wouldn't go all in with less than AA or KK then this analysis would be applicable. However, since the tables are so loose then even seeing someone go all in and then showing AA or AK or KK doesn't count for much since they could still go all in on 55. But iff your read on this player is tight overall then it would mean more. And if you saw someone all in with 55 and they went all in when you held KK you surely would call, knowing their past behaviour. All of this changes with stack sizes. Short stacked people go all in with just about anything, though I find that if they wait a long time before going all in they usually have a hand and I won't call without at least a big Ace.

This was an interesting read and you made some compelling points. And over the course of the quarter of a million hands (literally) I have played in the micro cash games, had I not seen 1,000 donks shove AK, QQ, and JJ all in 1,000 times, I may have considered folding KK preflop.