How do you lay this down!!!!!

so i am playing a $2.20 Hold 'em event last night, and i am close to placing. 15 more people to be exact, out of a couple thousand. I have pocket fours everyone folds to the player on my lefts raise, doubling the blinds.

Flop Jc 10c 4s. Im first position so i raise. he goes all in. i am only worried about one hand. JJ. he had it. Does anyone know the odds of him having that?

Set over set--brutal but when you flop one of your 4's, I don't think you're letting this one go.

why were you only worried about JJ and not TT?

anyway, you're supposed to go broke with a set on a non-straightening, non flushing board, and it would take extreme circumstances not to. it's just a cooler

That's poker. There was no way in knowing for sure that he held a set. With that flop,it's very easy to bluff with several drawing possibilities on the flop. No matter how you played, you were going to lose.

In Phil Gordon's "Little green book" he states that set over set happens in 1 of 100. And with those odds, its always a good call and if your beat, it's a cooler.

Odds of the opponent having JJ:

Poker Stars: 3-1
Full Tilt: 2-1

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those odds are backwards ldo. i've been set over setted more times on pokerstars than i have on full tilt and that's having played like 20x more on ft. sets hit 50% more often on PS imo

CAREFUL

I never laydown a set. Well, unless there are 4 cards of the same suit on the board. But I like to get my money in before I see the Turn when 3 suited cards hit on the flop. I haven't come up against too many times where my opponent hit his flush on the flop at the same time that I hit my set on the flop. I would guess the odds are pretty similar to set over set on the flop.
But like I said, I never laydown a set. I'll live or die with it.

Yea never lay down a set. I've been playing online for almost a year now and only 1 time have I had middle set and was up against top set. And I can only remember like 2 times I had top set and my opponenet had bottom/middle set.

gotta go with yer gut,,,too bad...but then it is poker.......

thats a tough one ... i have a hard time with that myself .... you have PP chances are 1 out of 8 ur gonna hit ur set ... you hit it you want that pot and it winds up costing everything .... sorry man better luck next time

Collected from several sources i think i had found the stats, correct if wrong

odds of getting a pp 1/17
Odds of a second player getting a pp 3/50

odds of both hitting set on flop 1/98

Those are the odds of everything, i dont what you have to do to work out the odds of them all occuring together. Sicne the odds of both hitting set are based on them already having pp and doesnt add odds of getting pp's into it

nothing you can do in a tourney about that but advice in the ring games is only keep 20% of your bankroll at one table because it's hard to forget those hands.

i hope by 20% you mean <5%

i usually keep 200% of my bankroll on the table

Not to be a smart alec, but I'm confused. If everybody folded to the player on your left, didn't you fold?

I know that is not what you mean. What did you do with your pocket fours and from what position?

I am guessing Aenema46n2 was the BB and the player on his left was UTG. Aenema46n2 called the min raise from the BB.

Ah....he meant everybody folded to the player on his lefts bet...gotcha. Reading is a skill...someday I'll learn how to do it.

Sorry about that.

Almost impossible to get away from that hand. My guess is the only way you would have possibly been able to get away from it would be if he had smooth called your raise and the turn and river had been like the Q and K of clubs.

Then maybe you could have gotten away from it, but you did the right thing, so keep it up

Similar thing happened to me last night at $25NL table - Guy raises 3x BB , I call from the button with AT - everyone else folds
Flop comes 7 T T - I now have trips - he comes out with a $5 bet - I re-raise to $10 and he calls
Turn is a 3 - he bets $20 more and is all in - I call - and he turns over 33
Ouch

How to lay it down? You click the box that says [fold]. Would I have clicked it? Yes. That close to the bubble (<15), lowest set on the board, tournament life at state - yes. You sure didn't have the nuts. A good hand for sure, but you also admit some concern over the JJ (and as someone else mentioned, the 10,10) or even a flush draw.

I can find better places to bet the farm, unless making the bubble was of no concern, but that's just me ...

The players who have little problem betting or calling the 'bet the farm' action with marginal hands must keep the boxes packed. From what I see online, a lot of them are moving regularly.

^^^ You would lay down a set, just because your close to the bubble? Awful awful strategy, preventing yourself running deep by turtling to bubble

Its a sickner thats for sure and seen it happen a lot almost always end up with all the money going in too.

Hopefully next time you will have the JJ and opponent will have the 4s

Sure would. It's 15 off the bubble out of several thousand (per his description). Strategy? My strategy there would be to make the bubble.

We don't really have a lot of info - stacks, payout structure, read on the villain, etc, but he does say he already surmised pocket J's (and he was right) but called anyway. Bang - out the door. Nice of him to double up villain.

Sounds like you'd be one of the ones keeping the boxes packed ...

hint: the most successful online MTT players frequently have somewhat low in the money %, around 15%. they're not successful because they squeak into the money. they're successful because they accumulate big stacks, final table, and win. folding a set here because it's the bubble is CRIMINAL

If I'm reading your post right you called a raise, see I would've folded there when it's this close to the bubble but once you hit your set there is no way I'm letting it go.

You can't lay it down. It is that simple and it is why poker i such a hard game. You can make the right decision every single time in a tournament and still lose. Redemption is good though and one day you will be the player with the JJ

Unless there's a flush on the board. Yesterday I got stacked twice with my set vs. a flush.