Hole Cards Confessions Study Group: Range

We are excited to kick off the Cards Chat study group of “Hole Card Confessions” by Drag the Bar instructor Owen Gaines. Each week we will be covering two sections of the book and Owen will be joining us in the threads to answer questions.

I will be posting brief summaries of the material to be discussed in the OP of each thread. I will not be regurgitating the whole book so people don't have to read it. I will not be quoting long sections of copyrighted material. The goal is to give each thread a starting point; not to reproduce the book for free for anyone who finds the thread.

If you haven't already gotten your copy of “Hole Card Confessions” you can purchase it at Owen's site. http://qtippoker.com/

This thread will cover pages 35-46 and deal with:

1. Range Review
2. Shaping a Range
3. The Shape of a Range.

Well, the way plans go and all that.....

I am renovation at home and my office is being moved. So will not have access to my PC till at earliest tomorrow evening, maybe not till Tuesday. So I will miss the beginning of this. I am excited to participate as soon as I am back up and running.

And thanks again Owen for doing this. Awesome!!

Sounds great. Will try to be here for this. Thanks both Cardchat and Owen for this opportunity.

I like the way Owen used graphical representation to help visualize different ranges. I had never seen that done before. I think it would be a good exercise for this thread for people to post hand histories and tell what they think their opponents range is.

An example of what I think is a polarized range on the river:
Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $15.80
UTG: $14.08
UTG+1: $18.98
MP: $10.00
MP+1: $10.00
CO: $22.38
Hero (BTN): $10.05
SB: $8.05

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 7♠ 7♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.35, fold

Flop: ($1.45, 3 players) 7♥ 8♠ 5♥
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, fold, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($3.95, 2 players) 6♥
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.95, 2 players) 5♣
BB bets $1.00

Villain is 26/12/2 and I don't think he ever really leads the river with a marginal made hand (TP/small overpairs) as he's more likely to ch/call with those hands. So when he leads the river he's got air or a strong hand .

WV, what is the sample size you have on the villain?

At the time the hand was played, 211.

Shhhooovvveeee

Well that goes to how to play against different range shapes but yeah.

View hand 1595789
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $26.00
UTG: $14.72
MP: $8.42
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $7.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with K ♣ J ♦
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) Q ♠ 2 ♥ 2 ♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.83, SB calls $0.83

Turn: ($3.41) A ♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.41) 6 ♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB folds


A hand i found from a long time ago, and i think i played it badly, so perhaps this can be an example of when not to do such a move. I mean its so long ago i cant remember specific reads so it might very well be a fine move. Villain was 63/34. Thing to note is how i shouldn't of had to do this here, i should of definitely barelled the turn. And i'd much rather not c-bet this guy and do a delayed c-bet on the turn to start with. Another reason why i think this was bad is because of the guys stack size, but his turn and river check really do tell us he isnt happy with his hand.

My question would be what do you think the shape of his range is on the river?

And I actually like cbetting the flop against this type of player as long as you plan to barrel pretty much every turn card (that turned Ace is like the greatest card for you to barrel).

Because he's such a fish it looks, i guess his range shape would be very weighted towards air, and what he perceives to be marginal? Like smallish pocket pairs, and random crap he couldnt fold because the flop is so dry.

Why do you like c-betting here against that type of guy? He isnt gonna fold anything or believe we have hit anything, and lots of turn cards arent gonna be great to bet? or are they? Im not sure myself with him being a loose aggressive looking type pf. But against a loose passive or tag type i almost always check the flop on these types and bet any turn if checked too, just because lots of pocket pairs are going to call the c-bet on the flop.

Struggling to find any good examples here.

Another old one, villain is 8/6, think i should of c-bet this one! Made the river big with this one because nits like their precious money, and although he might have me beat a lot here he isnt gonna be thinking enough to call me down because nits are scared and when he see's a big bet he's never calling.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1595835
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $9.75
BB: $10.00
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $28.48
UTG+2: $24.51
Hero (MP1): $39.76
MP2: $26.31
CO: $25.55
BTN: $22.23

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with 6 ♦ 6 ♠
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, BB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.35) T ♦ 7 ♣ 3 ♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.35) 4 ♥ (2 players)
BB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

River: ($3.85) A ♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.50, BB folds

Well we're betting the flop so that when we bet the turn we win more $$s. His range to call the flop is huge (basically everything he called with pre) but it's a board that hits no one and most of the time he's just calling the cbet to see if we check the turn.

What would you say his range shape is on the river? Have you read the selection btw?

Id say its a good example of a bell shaped range, If he was betting the turn with some AQ or AK type of hand as a bluff (dont even know if nits cold call these in the blinds, probably could) Then he would most definitely bet the river when he hits. He isnt cold calling here with Kx or worse so i think it's only pocket pairs here, no monsters and the rest marginal pocket pairs.

I'd say that's right. Mostly small pocket pairs so what he perceives to be weak to marginal. If that's right why are you betting so big on the river?

Because I think i can fold everything he has like 99,88, and if i did a pot bet he might occasionally feel a bit cheeky and call? I might be thinking wrong, but its just because he's a nit and i really dont wanna let him call me with something that beats me here when he pretty much never will call a big bet.

I don't think he calls with those hands very often anyway. He's a nit. They hate big pots without the nuts.

Triangle imo

Pretty much just round the top.

Yeah, I think that river bet is a good one.

Acky, surely with that huge overbet, our friendly nit is folding out TP too, that was your intention at the time right? If not, imo it doesn't have to be as big as that. He won't call with less than aces up if he really is a big nit facing that kind of river overbet. Anyways, his range on the river is bell, he wanted to showdown, and he had you beat most likely.

I played this hand yesterday and thought it might fit nicely into this thread (even if the results don't really match up with my impressions during the hand ).

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players

Hero (BTN): $54.25
SB: $50.75
BB: $44.25 - 27/23/14, 3bet 17%, FBB 0%, 125 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with A ♣ 2 ♥
Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) Q ♣ A ♥ 3 ♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises to $6.50, Hero calls $4.25

Turn: ($16.25) 7 ♦ (2 players)
BB bets $7.50, Hero raises to $20, BB calls $12.50

River: ($56.25) 5 ♠ (2 players)
BB bets $16.25 all in,

Very aggressive/tricky player in the BB. Open is pretty standard, and I expect to get called by a very wide range. When he c/r flop my initial thought was that he either had a monster or a semi bluff (the inverted bell I guess). So I called to keep his bluffs in and with the intention of making his life difficult to a non heart turn. When he bet the turn rather smallish, the shape for me was then skewed towards the semi bluff flush draw type hands, i.e. weak, which is why I raised with TPNK. When he calls my turn raise I still see him as going for a draw, although he now might have value hands in his range. So maybe by the end of the turn action his range is flattening, although still skewed towards the weaker end? Anyways... he then lead shoved river. At the time when I played the hand, the shape became inverted bell again for me, although in reality he was only ever going to fold out a complete bluff given the pot odds.

I honestly dont think our friendly nit actually has any top pair hands in his range there, he'd fold AT for sure there i think. Maybe JJ he would call with and QQ but id maybe expect him to bet out bigger on the flop or turn with one of them.

Onto your hand wow, looks like some complex thinking going on there. I dont know if i like it really, im not sure why it's just confusing me/

Apart from a set of three's if you'd slowplay them on the flop theres really nothing else you would raise with there is there? After calling a flop raise it's a unusual move to see. Would people call a flop raise with a flush draw and then raise it on the turn?

I think we can be sure when we raise the turn though and he just calls he has a somewhat vulnerable but hand he wants to showdown, pretty much just like we can assume when you call his raise that you have a more marginal hand than too.

I dunno how i'd play it, its hard to say a lot of things when we're playing pretty much HU because people deviate a lot more from their normal game and tend to get fancy more. I'd like to see what others think the best line here is and how it ties in with the shape of his range. I'd probably just call it down if he's aggro enough but i dont know still.

Yeah, it's a bit all over the place that hand. I'll take a look this afternoon to see if I can find a better one with more clearly defined ranges/betting patterns etc.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

Hero (CO): $75.59
BTN: $105.30
SB: $47.75
BB: $38.68 - 61/4/1.8, FBB 20%, donk flop 50% (10),78 hands.
UTG: $78.53

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A ♥ 8 ♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) 6 ♦ 6 ♣ A ♠ (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2, Hero calls $2, SB folds

Turn: ($8.50) 5 ♣ (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($14.50) 2 ♥ (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3


How about this one? Villain is a total idiot. Donking with a paired board is suspicious at best, but with this guy...

Pre: range weak.
Flop: range polarized (although imo skewed heavily towards weak, with only the occasional 6, hence my call).
Turn: Same as flop. This guy doesn't know how to value bet, so he would bet both a 6 and air like this, and his range is still massively weak.
River: see turn, again, he wouldn't want to scare me off with a large bet, so at the time I didn't see any point in raising here, although perhaps I should have in case he calls with a randomly paired 5 or so. I think during the hand I was just fixed on calling down so I could post in this thread. In retrospect, that river bet was so small I should have raised it.

Basically by calling down I'm keeping his range skewed towards f'all, while occasionally he'll run off with my monies (although not much) with a 6.

Haven't looked at the spoiler but i like the look of calling down, i think his range will is also weak-marginal, so yep the weak shape. Hmm, river... I think when he bets this small we could maybe raise to like 8? to get calls from all pocket pairs and maybe even a 5 but i dont know why he'd have 5's in his range apart from A5, but then again he is an idiot like you said so yeah

I know I am a little late on this, but imo he could have a few different hands, like two overs with the flush draw, or straight draw but when you check behind on the turn after both of these become possible he bets 25% of the pot on the river looking to get some value from the hand to make up for what was missed on the turn, I wouldn't be placing him on (TP/small overs) here in most cases though.

He almost never has a weak made hand here. Certainly not the type of player who is going to go for thin value with TP hoping that I'll call with Ace high. In fact if he is betting a hand like A8 here it's almost always because he thinks he's bluffing. Still he much more likely to bluff catch with it (ch/call) than he is to turn it into a bluff.

When he flats in the BB I think this is always a PP or specifically AQs. Definitely c-bet and maybe barrel if you think he'll float flop with a underpair.

Yep i dont know why i didnt c-bet, it was a long time ago

I agree with you here

A hand from this morning:-

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (MP): $60.24
CO: $73.62 - 24/15/3.3, 310 hands.
BTN: $51.02
SB: $77.42
BB: $74.36
UTG: $50.18

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q ♣ Q ♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 9 ♠ 9 ♦ Q ♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.25) T ♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $15, CO folds

Final Pot: $18.25
Hero mucks Q ♣ Q ♦
Hero wins $17.06
(Rake: $1.19)

OK, the history of this was that I suspected he'd floated me a couple of times (I double barrelled him once and he folded, but whenever I checked turn he'd bet). I decided that since I hit the flop so hard I would set him up for a c/r on the turn. My flop bet was smallish because I really wanted to sell my story (cbet and then give up), maybe this was a mistake because I would collect more money later on? Anyway...

Preflop: villain's range is bell, because he's not calling my UTG open with just ATC.
Flop: villain's range is difficult to determine because imo he's floating a lot, so here maybe it's flat (he would probably call with everything - even his strong hands like T9s/98s).
Turn: weak/bell.

Would you agree with that?

Pretty good example hand. I think there on the turn the shape probably doesn't fit really well into a specific mold. There's probably a fair amount of weak stuff in there along with marginal hands as well as a few monsters...but I wouldn't call it flat either

I do like incorporating a turn c/r against opponent's who do a fair amount of float/bet lines. This gives you chance to pick up more equity in future hands by putting some fear in them.

Having said that, I think there would be better turn cards to use for that. The Ts is a pretty good card for you to extract more value from floating hands. I would say a good portion of his range is now going to have paired up and is looking like a pair + draw. Of course, if he'll call a c/r with that, then a c/r is better than betting too. So, some pretty specific stuff there. However, if his floating range is extremely large and the portion of floating hands with more equity is relatively small in comparison to his garbage AND he'll bet his garbage, then I imagine - without running it - you're better off with the c/r. As I said, you need some pretty specific info to determine the best play in these spots.

In general, I'd like leading that turn pretty large and save the c/r line for less valuable turn cards.

Thanks for that response. Really thought provoking. I hadn't considered the 'value' of the Ts with regard to his calling range on the turn. Just goes to show that I'm either too rigid when it comes to setting out a plan for the hand pre or on the flop, or I am just not very good at reading things like that. Either way, that's given me a great tip to focus on.

I'm never sure about turn c/r's when we actually have it, people are so used to shutting down vs a turn c/r that I think its difficult to get value here like that. A lot of his range will be floaty weak shit and draws so I check/call the turn, let him float flop and bet turn like he wanted to, hope the river is good enough for him to call a decent size vbet with or get it in over the top of a river lead from us?? Might be way off but this kinda spot is difficult to get max value from unless you cooler someone right?