Help! Stuck. Stats analysis.

P

Popas

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Hey guys, i had a great last month, but talking about this month, i'm not very happy with my results. Could you tell me if it's variance or I was running hot last month ?

As you can see, I have same stats, ofcourse sample is diferrent, but what do you think ? If you need more stats, tell me.

Thanks!


March:
20uv7h0.png

1seb7d.jpg




April:
24mrqzt.png

28k57km.png
 
transformpoker

transformpoker

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Have you tried finding the standard deviation of your win rate? Once you have that locked down with confidence, then you can estimate if you're running bad or playing bad.
 
U

Ubercroz

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Looks good, not likely to be variance with 90k hands. It could be, but it is less likely.

If you are playing FR, I think that looks fine. You play a super tight game. I guess you could loosen up some... but you're basically crushing the stakes you are playing at - so I wouldn't stress loosening up too much.

What stakes are you playing? I would be interested to see what stake this style is crushing.


EDIT- you said you are disappointed, am I misreading or are you winning 8bb/100 hands? 8/100 is pretty solid.
 
micromachine

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Your stats for the two months are virtually identical so I doubt it's something you have changed with your game. The win rate difference certainly could be due to variance.

Only slight difference seems to be that you are more positionally aware pre this month, but that can only be a good thing :)
 
micromachine

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Looks good, not likely to be variance with 90k hands. It could be, but it is less likely.

If you are playing FR, I think that looks fine. You play a super tight game. I guess you could loosen up some... but you're basically crushing the stakes you are playing at - so I wouldn't stress loosening up too much.

What stakes are you playing? I would be interested to see what stake this style is crushing.


EDIT- you said you are disappointed, am I misreading or are you winning 8bb/100 hands? 8/100 is pretty solid.

He's disappointed with his 3.87bb/100 win rate in April when he had an 8.7bb/100 win rate in March.
 
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Ubercroz

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He's disappointed with his 3.87bb/100 win rate in April when he had an 8.7bb/100 win rate in March.

OH.

There are times when you miss the obvious and feel like a dummy.

3.87bb/100 is still good. If that is a downswing, then congrats.
 
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Popas

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its 10NL. well 15-16VPIP/12-13PFR is kinda standard for FR no ? Seems like TAG stats.

My standard Deviation is 59.

Well, so you think it's variance ? Or i was just luck-box ? Becuase of last month i was super confident in my game, and now it seems I was running hot, and don't know what do now....
 
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Popas

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Have you tried finding the standard deviation of your win rate? Once you have that locked down with confidence, then you can estimate if you're running bad or playing bad.

Could you explain it more ? My standard deviation is 59. What do you mean by confidence ?
 
U

Ubercroz

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its 10NL. well 15-16VPIP/12-13PFR is kinda standard for FR no ? Seems like TAG stats.

My standard Deviation is 59.

Well, so you think it's variance ? Or i was just luck-box ? Becuase of last month i was super confident in my game, and now it seems I was running hot, and don't know what do now....

Yeah those are pretty standard TAG stats, I play 6max, so it seemed real tight to me, but I play like 26/24 so...

I think this is pretty standard variance. Maybe running hot, maybe not. but you could very easily have a 30-90k hand run where you run super cold and lose 1-3bbs/100, so don't be upset you are winning less. Its all part of the game.
 
Aces2w1n

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You seem to be folding a bit more this month on the flop.

Opening up wider this month CO/BTN and also in the (SB)(watchful for this) You could be leaking money in the SB

Your stealing % has gone up perhaps your failing at stealing and that's also costing you money.

Tighten up a touch with defending against steals.
 
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