Help. Overpairs losing to Sets....again and again

Hi guys,

This is a huge leak in my game at the moment and I think I know what I need to do but need some reassurance.

Lets say I have K K (a common hand I seem to lose big with).

Theres a limped from MP and I raise 4 x BB +1 on the button.

Flop comes:

2 6 9 rainbow.

Now here I am thinking this is a great flop for me right?

So MP player checks and I bet 3/4 pot. MP calls.... hmmmmm.

Is it at this point that I should be thinking...SET!? Maybe not? But what else does he call with ? A 9? 7 8? (Remember I raised PF too)

So lets say the turn comes:

Turn: J.

MP checks again? I bet 3/4 pot again. MP then reraises me!!!

Now should i be thinking SET?! Should I be laying down my kings here?

Maybe and im thinking this is what I should do is Check behind on the turn to negate the chance for anyone to check-raise. Is this an option?

I guess it probably comes down to small hand/small pot, big hand/big pot, but should I really be laying my kings down (or Aces etc) to any sort of aggression?

Now I know what you are probably going to say....that it comes down to read, stack sizes, table dynamics etc and I understand all this, but I would really like a reasonably general answer. Eg, we have just sat down at the table and we both have 100BB stacks.

I seem to lose the plot when facing aggression when I have big overs and not believe my opponents raise. Maybe I don't respect it enough?

For the above example do thing change if he just calls the turn? Do we then check behind on the river fearing the check raise or do we value bet to all hell.

Again, reads are very important I know but whether my opponent is LAG or TAG or passive or whatever I still seem to be stacking off with my overpairs and when I look at my Pokertracker stats for Aces and Kings they are extremely depressing!

Any help/feedback or critisism is appreciated and valuable.

If a board is coming like that and you have top pair, you're always going broke and not letting the hand go. It's to hard to put someone on a set so I don't think its bad play to go all in with. More times than not your top pair will profit than being out dont by a set. Long term your kings are holding up and you're making money. I think a set is only 7-1 odds so, i'm sure you can do the maths on it.

The point is, you have put enough money in the pot by the point he re-raises I'd always have to call..

Bit of advice.

Start continuation betting smaller like just over half

50 into a 90 etc.
This allows you to get called by worse and gives better hands a reason to want to raise you to build a pot.

If you do bet bigger because they are fishy then that's okay too.

On a blank turn bet just over half again. If you get jammed on then you can fold without investing to much.

Apart from all in pre these big pp are over rated post flop and should be played like any other top pair hand on the flop.

Unless of course as you mentioned you have history or you know there tilting etc

Try to control the pot size...if u run into sets atleast u won't loose that much.

are you tracking your play with software? If so filter for overpairs on the flop and post those stats.

Could also just be bad luck with the number of sets being hit vs your overpairs.

try betting more preflop like a 5x or 6x to filter out people with small pocket pairs. and if u get called on flop with a board like the one that u have mentioned alarm bells have to be ringing.

It happens, but it shouldn't happen as often as you are implying. Most of the time, your Kings will be the best hand. That's when you have to pay attention to your opponents. If it is a tight player who is calling/raising you, he probably has you beat. If it a loose player, he may be bluffing or maybe he hit top or middle pair on the flop, so your Kings should still be best. 4 bet him and take your chances....

One option is to pot control a lot with 1 pair hands. When someone limp calls preflop this is a pocket pair often. If they c/c a dry board, you can check behind the turn for various reasons

1- It pot controls when they flopped a set
2- It disguises your hand strength, thus they are more likely to call with a weaker hand if you bet the river
3- It lets them bluff the river

It comes down to how villains will play middle pairs against you.

Opponents Hand: 77

Opponents Action: Limp/Calls preflop

Flop: 9s 6c 2d

You bet, he naturally calls (standard)

Turn: 4h

You bet he....

If he calls

river Js

You bet he...

If the answer is not calls in both the turn and river, then we can not get 3 streets of value out of an overpair against him, hence we should be pot controlling the turn for the reaosns above while still getting the max 2 streets of value that we would get by betting.

If opponent plays straight forward and calls loosely, the turn is an easy bet bc it is a very easy fold if we get c/r'd, since we know he won't c/r with less than 1 pair and his calling range includes many hands we beat

In the situation you described, with no draws, unless he's a passive fish, I'm checking behind on the turn. A second barrell will fold everything we beat, only the hands that beat us will continue and there's also no way they're going to fold. If we do have him beat, he has at most 5 outs so we don't risk much by giving him a free card and our check will widen his calling range on the river so we get maximum value. If he has us beat, we're keeping the pot small and won't lose our whole stack on the river.

Doesnt sound like a really good advice to me. Some people no matter the bet (maybe unless its all in) just cant seem to lay down their pocket pairs. So by increasing his bet size he only makes a big pot and makes it even harder for them to fold their pair and so by the turn or river they hit and he is facing a guy with trips and a bigger pot on which the guy with trips will be even more aggressive.
Spotting a hidden set on a board is pretty tricky and its even more tricky to convince yourself to lay down your big overpair but it's something any player that aspires to be good must learn in time. "Texas hold'em , because you must know when to hold'em and when to fold'em". The best advice i can give , sorry if it doesnt help much.

I would normally try to control the pot size with an overpair, when alarm bells go off like you said on the turn try to get to a cheap showdown. A lot of players might raise the turn with an overpair, so they might have queens. I normally wouldn't fold in the scenario you described. Doesn't happen often for me either.

Well If you have any kind of read he has a set, than C-bet, check turn, and call his raise.
You should C-bet then Bet the turn and check the river
If he makes a big bet on the river your most likely beat, it also depends on the stakes you play. Higher stakes will be best.
Pretty much play smart and try to lose the minimum.

I think half of the people in this thread have gone mad. Pot control with overpairs at presumably micro stakes?

Bet/Bet/Bet if they keep calling and generally fold when they raise. This is Beluga Theorem all the way. You can still get three streets of value from overpairs. Not everyone is solid.

Like I said, unless he's a passive fish... If he is, I'm actually potting flop and turn and I'm willing to get it all in on the river. But just because this is the micros it doesn't mean all players are like this, sometimes it's actually hard to get into tables with players like this, so I'm assuming we're up against a decent player. Against most players, a turn bet will chase away every hand that we beat other than top pair and we'd get more value by checking and widening his calling range on the river. It's also a way of balancing our strategy for all the times we cbet with nothing and check the turn, let them know we can cbet/check with a hand.

Why would you ever assume you're up against a decent player. Assume everyone is bad until proven otherwise.

Wow, short little response there, but it has given me a LOT to think about. I usually approach the game just the opposite. Without a decent-size sampling for my HUD, I just assume everyone is decent without some evidence otherwise. Still.... I AM in the micros, so your approach makes more sense at these levels. I'm going to have to think about this and think about implementing this mindset into my play. Hmmm.... Thanks, (I think).

Trust me, you'll make way more money stacking all the idiots than you'll lose the few times you're up against a competent unknown.

QFT


One other thought to throw out; if you're a nit and you only play the big hands, that makes you a prime target for set mining or any other kind of big hand/big payout mining, including with gapped suited connectors or maybe even suited Aces.

When it comes to overpairs there is a HUGE difference in postlop playability and EV between AA/KK and QQ/JJ. first of all from EP for all of these my preflop raise is always 5-10xbb (depending on table conditions).
When I 3 bet I re-raise 4x the original raiser's amount.

Next with AA I just mash the pot button on all 3 streets unless the board has powerful draws and then I'll overbet the pot. At 2nl lots of smaller overpairs and top pairs will call off most of their stack on 3 streets this way. Pretty much the only time I slow down with AA is if the board has 4 cards of the same suit and I don't have an A in that suit. I'll check/call the turn but will fold on the river here to a big bet, I figure it's about 50/50 that they have a card in that suit.

With KK pretty similair but obviously if an A hits I slow down, check/ call the flop and check/fold the turn.

If someone's call PFR is say 10% and they would re-raise big pairs then pocket pairs are only about 1/3 of their range so the chance of running into a set here is around 3%. Be more more worried about straights and flushes.

I play AA/ KK fast & hard. Sometimes I get set mined but they are HUGE profit makers and if your preflop raise is big set mining you becomes less EV.


With QQ & JJ I don't play them anywhere near as aggressively as villain could have an overpair and it's not worth going broke with either vs a set or 2 pair, so preflop I'll usually fold to a 3bet or 4bet with QQ/JJ. After the flop I'll c-bet if I flop an overpair but usually 1/2 pot and then same on turn. If I get re-raised I'm usually done.

With overpairs it can be difficult to know where you stand vs aggression in the micros. You often see people overplaying missed AK/AQo hands and even stacking off without a pair. And many will stack off with TPGK so it can be hard folding the big overpair with these types of plays happening on a regular basis.

I went through a bad run where my AA was constantly being over taken by gutshots on the turn..but sets have stung me as well.

I guess notes and hud stats can help u decide if ur beat or not.

This is/was exactly my problem at the full buy-in tables. Constantly getting run-down with unexpected draws. Since I am naturally a nit, if I Raise pre people call knowing full-well I'll have a difficult time getting away from my overpair. My game isn't good enough to come up with a solution. Every time I try to be less nitty, I end up having big losing sessions. My solution, at least for now, is to simply play the short buy-in tables. Denies most people the odds to try to chase me down when I raise big pre. Not an ideal solution, I know, but its working OK for me up to now.

This is a table selection/ BRM issue. If you choose tables full of loose,bad players you can usually bet pot on 3 streets with overpairs until you are re-raised.
You cannot play scared, getting stacked is part of playing NLHE. If you are playing at proper stakes for your bankroll losing buy-ins with AA & KK should not deter you from playing these hands fast.

There are times when the board and villain's line is telling you you're beat but don't assume every time calls your pf raise and c-bet that they flopped a set.

AA & KK

YouTube - Judas Priest - You've got another thing coming

^^^^^ this.
i am going all-in on that flop, seeing if he wants to come for a ride

What? Am I nittier than Fx? Say it isn't so. Getting stacked at NLHE is NOT part of the game. At least not the way I play it. Unless I'm the one doing the stacking of course!!!

I really don't believe its a BRM issue either. I'm always comfortably rolled for the level I play at, and have never had to move down due to losses. In fact, I'm at 25nl now, an have been a decent winner at every level along the way, except for a long stretch at 10nl where I was only a slight winner.

Table selection, on the other hand, is a HUGE issue for me. I never seem to find these tables full of loose/passive fish that everyone says are so plentiful at the micros. Thats another reason that I play the short-buy tables. At least there I only have to be better than the short-stacked shove-monkeys to turn a decent profit. Not a problem.

I think it may also be a bet-sizing issue. Others have said that you should bet,bet, and bet your overpairs in the micros. This usually doesn't work for me. Since I am SO nitty typically one of two things happens when I have a big pocket pair. Either I raise and get a table full of insta-folds (winning a small pot), or I get called on every street and, sure enough, on the river I'll either be facing a check-raise or a re-raise. Usually one or the other of us has so little left behind at this point that I practically have to call regardless and end losing a big pot.

These scenarios play-out so often (winning small pots with big PP and losing big ones with them) that I've actually started just limping with my big PP and relying on the short-stackers to shove over top of me so that I can call them down to turn a profit. it seems to work OK at the short-buy tables since there are so many players there looking to shove pre-flop any chance they get.

I don't know. I'd like to play the full-buy tables again. But I have a real issue with table selection. Usually what happens is that I'll find a table that looks like it should be good in the lobby, but once I get to the table it'll be playing FAR more TAG that the lobby suggested it was. This happens again and again and I eventually get tired of searching and just stay at a table that I know I shouldn't. I really need to come-up with a way to find decent tables.

Hmm... I think you might be over shooting a little here.

What will he call with?
If he's beat why would you want to let him out cheaply?

SPR, make it small. Win money with over pairs.

1) Open your late position raising range wider. This will result in stolen blinds or give you position on the flop if called. It will also get you involved in more hands so that you don't seem so nitty.

2) Open raise your pocket pairs from all positions, either all, or just down to 77 from early if you prefer. If called you'll often miss the flop and have an underpair, but then you're not tied to your hand like you might be with overpairs. Bet/fold these postflop most of the time, but that's okay. With the ones you win preflop plus the ones you win with a bet on the flop you'll be ahead, plus again it gets you involved so you don't look so nitty. If you have a really nitty table you can play middle suited connectors the same way. Just remember that you're looking for better than one pair with these hands if you go more than one street, unless you have a real fish.

Yeah, this is a real problem for me (one of many). I try to widen my range from the CO and Button, but when I do my win-rate from those positions drops pretty drastically. For the longest time I was actually losing money from the button and barely winning from the CO. I think I'm ahead in both positions now, but just barely. This was while running somewhere in the neighborhood of 18/15 from LP (don't have HEM open now, but those numbers are pretty close). The problem is that I'm just such a natural nit, that if I widen my range and villain doesn't fold pre-flop, I'm often lost, or at least in an uncomfortable position.

That's, pretty, strange.

For one thing, 18 still isn't open; closer to 30 would be open. At $25nl FR I was running 8 in early and 20 from the CO and 25 or something on the button. And I still consider myself a nit by default.

What's your continuation bet percentage? If you're a nit they should be folding to your c-bets so you should be c-betting like 80% of the time that you get called, unless you get multiple callers.

What stakes are you playing? Are you taking into consideration the looseness, blind defence, flop fold percentage of the blinds?

Yeah, I thought it was really strange too. The numbers are SLOOOWLY coming back into line where you would expect them to be. Its just taking awhile learning how to play a ridculously loose 18/15 effectively from the botton . I can't imagine playing 30/x. I'd be completely lost.

I play 25nl. I manage to win in the neighboorhood of 4.5-5 bb/100, but thats mostly from EP and MP when I open-raise or raise a couple of limpers and get a table full of folds. I'm not that great at post-flop play since I'm usually either folding pre myself, or folding everyone else out pre when I raise from EP/MP. I usually run about 9/7, so when I raise I usually don't get any action.

I nearly always CB, especially from LP. Probably too much. Anyway, its a work in progress. I know I need to be wider from LP, I'm just not used to getting much post-flop action and when someone just flats my CB, or even Check-raises me, I'm usually pretty much in the dark about what to do next. Point being, its not all that easy to simply widen your range if you've always been an uber-nit like me.

Thanks for the tips though. I agree you're right about what needs to be done and I'm working on it. Its just going to take awhile.

It might be worth your while to go to $10nl and play 6 max for a while, or do so at $25. It'll force you to open your range and to play post-flop with more marginal hands, and give you more practice working on your hand reading.

Or try one of SplitSuit's things where he went to $10nl with the restriction that he had to open raise every hand that wasn't already opened. That's probably better done at Rush Poker where people won't notice so much, but it's a good exercise too. I think he has a video that he did on his site that used to be available for anyone to watch if you Google him.

Id go in the other direction.

Its impossible to create a small SPR in a limped or unopened pot with 100bb.

So create a large SPR, such that its impossible to stack off.

Why are you in a limped or unopened pot with an overpair???

Im assuming its limped ahead of me.

You cannot get the SPR down low enough preflop to make stacking off postflop an automatic decision.

I know about SPR but in practice at the micros it is hard to follow imo.

To create a decent small SPR for a big pair would it not take a raise big enough that we lose value from hands that would call a smaller raise, say Ax, and then poss stack off when their larger x hands hits top pair??

I need to re-read (can't remember the name of the book, the one with a lot of SPR stuff??) but i'm sure that when i first read it i went the same way as stu and preferred to make larger spr's so that i could get away from a big hand