Heads Up

I recently played Heads up against a friend of mine. We each put up 25 dollars 1-2 dollar blinds.(we are doing this once everyday this week). We go at it for about a half hour in. My read on him is he is a very solid player. We are about even now in stack size with him slightly ahead. I draw 22 and he is first to act. He 3X raises and I go all in. Is this the right move? Note....he is a very solid player.

Lol, I'm not a very good HU player Ken, my game can certainly use some help in that area and in all shorthanded situations as well, therefore you should certainly value answers you get from other members as superior than mine, and I'll keep checking your post since I'm very interested to know those answers in the hope to improve my game.

That said, I'm going to try to answer your question. Lets start with some math. The chances of your opponent having a bigger pocket pair than yours are 5.6%. Needless to add, in those situation you are a serious dog. It also means that in the other 94.4% you will be in race in which you are a slight favored (I believe a 53 to 47 favored, correct me anyone if I'm wrong). So, by going all-in, your expectation to win this hand is just a little better than 50%.

If my math is correct, the proper action if I'm involved in this hand is to raise all-in. That because you said that the opponent is a very solid player, where instead in HU I'm not. Common wisdom says that, if you're the better player, you should avoid coin flip situations. In this case, since he's certainly better than me, he should fold to my all-in. If he doesn't, I'll certainly welcome the scenario where I'm an, even slight, favored to win the hand and the game since our stacks are pretty much even.

I guess you know where I'm going with this. In your case, I think it all depends on how you think of yourself in terms of odds that you can outplay him or not. If you think you can, then going all-in is a terrible move.

I think thats a pretty reckless play... But its a little bit more of a judgment call on ur part, if hes been playing solid the whole time, then ur prolly beat or even money... If you push like that you have to think for sure that he will fold... I never like to push with dueces, because i always seem to hit sets with them after the flop, and it sneaks up on players. So i would say it was the wrong play, unless your at least 75% positive u got the best hand and he will lay it down...

I think the odds of getting a pocket pair are about 1/17 hands (your first card is a random card and the probability of the second one being the same would be 3/51 or 1/17). So, the chances of both of you getting a pocket pair are actually 1/17 x 1/17 hands or much less than 1%. If you feel the other opponent is superior to you in skill then I think going all-in is very reasonable here. Chris Ferguson didn't think A9 was a great hand in the 2000 WSOP in heads up, but he did think his opponent, TJ Cloutier was a better player and that he would need to make such a gamble at some point and thus it was "good enough".

(TJ had AQ and Jesus caught a 9 on the river, in case you didn't know)

HU, I always remember that the AVERAGE deal to either player will be 78o. I usually am agressive with anything that is better than that, and require connectables if less than that to call. A pair to start is heaven HU. Yes he may have you beat from the git go, or might outdraw you. Heads up a pair minimizes the luck factor.

I'm thinking he knows he is the better player, and for you to make such a move knowing he knows he is a better player (you should have drummed into his head the fact that you know he is the better player by now), he should lay it down without something very serious.

If the two of your are just gambling, try coin flipping, so many more hands per hour...........

Sorry scold, your calculation isn't correct. The less than 1% probability that both players will be dealt a pocket pair does not apply in this case. That would be the correct figure before the cards are dealt (probability of 2 events happening). Since Ken was already dealt 22, we need the probability of his opponent having a pocket pair (probability of 1 event happening after another has occured). It's kind of tricky, but if you think about it you'll understand it. The percentage is close to what I posted earlier. I agree with everything else you wrote.

I can't find enough wrong with it to say that it was a terrible play but personally I wouldn't do it. If you do this everytime you get 22 HU in a cash game the in the long run it's not a negative expectation, if you get called every time. I don't like it because most of the time it's going to be a pair that calls you making you a huge dog. If you call or make a raise to 9 BBs then you're giving yourself a chance to flop a set, and get away from the hand for less than your whole stack in the times you're sure you're beat after seeing a flop. Or even better taking the pot down right there. But that usually doesn't happen if you get raise in a HU match.
Phil Gordon has a math equation that tells you the odds of somebody having a bigger PP than you. Its in an article on ExpertInsight.com if you want to go check it out

With such low pockets he obv has two overs in his hand and with the 3x BB bet by a solid player, I would put him on A-J, A-10, K-Q, K-J, K-10, suited connectors higher than 9 or a PP above 6/ below 10, so the best move in this situation is a call to see a flop.
pockets that low run the risk of being counterfeited too much to be worth anything more than a call into a 3xBB.

I ended up losing to 77. I liked all the the input here and being that I am a gambler, I would have to disagree with shine on this situation......not that I would criticize your play....but in the long run I would be better off making this decision.....I also know that when I discussed this situation with him ....He seemed to get annoyed when I told him I would make that same move. Pressure.....