The Gap Theory

Do you all feel that the semi-bluff draw play is becoming less valuable with new landscape of players?

I am do some math here, and am starting to conclude that drawing semi-bluffs have lost the EV that used to be a definate solid play. For the play to have a +ev, you give yourself 2 ways to win. YOur hand improves, or you get your opponent to fold.
But, you can not bluff an inexperienced player. In other words you are losing the very advantage to using the semi-bluff. You do not have 2 ways to win. They won't fold, so you now must improve. That changes the equation, exactly how I don't know.

Any thoughts?

Bill

Yea true Im a new player 5 month now... and if I had A J and the flop is Ah 5h 7s i bet pot if the other players raise me with 6h 8h for example I call even if he goes all in... I always play what I got not what the other guy can get on a draw...

Ben

If a good player raises you in that situation, you can almost rest assured they have ace 7 or 5 suited, or a higher kick than J. Not always, of course, but usually they will have such a hand, and not on a straight draw. Maby with a Kh Xh, but not 6 8. Punish 'em for being on a draw. If they just raise you, then go over the top. Make 'em risk it on a draw. Chances are they will fold that AK that has you beat.

Oh, and too get on topic, Bill, I agree. You simply can't bluff a novice player. Hence, the essence of beginner's luck. If everyone plays good hands, and that one player plays low cards, chances are the low cards will hit. There just aren't enough high cards left in the deck, (think blackjack). So not only can you not bluff them, they will seemingly always hit their rags to beat you. Case in point, the other day I went Josh Arieh/Phil Hellmuth on this guy because he called my preflop bet on my KK with 3 9 off, and ended up hitting 3 10 3 on the flop. I bet it up, and he called, then got a 4th 3 on the River. In that case, I had the goods, and wasn't bluffing, (Only AA or rags beat me, and he had the latter.) but he still stuck with his 3 9 off. Such is the wrath of ESPN and the Travel Channel.

I am not a math person during poker, I am more of a feel person. I play the players as much as the cards. I do some math but this is my take on newbies and drawing hands.

If I get open ended or 4 to the flush on the flop I don't want these guys to fold. Most new player won't reraise so if i lead out with a small bet they won't fold. You have just diguised your drawing hand. You want these guys to stay in and pay you off when you do hit the straight.

The problem with newbies is that they don't value thier chips and understand the value of a bet or what it is supose to represent. They can overbet the pot and not make it worth while for you to stick around with your drawing hand.

I still can get a read on these players because they don't vary thier bets and change pace often, they don't know how. You just have to adjust your thinking alittle.

The semi bluff late position flush or open ended draw hand has lost its value but only vs relatively new or inexperienced players. However you must be wary of the very talented sharks out there that can sniff out a semi bluff reraise and then reraise you and bet into you on the turn thus negating your play.

I find that the best position to use this play in is the one right before the button. That way it doesnt look like your trying to steal the pot (your raise look legit) and also more than likely the button will fold. (If he calls be prepared to give up the pot soon if you dont hit your draw)

This strategy still works well at a tight table with experienced players. It's of dubious value with rookies as they don't care much and will call anything. I'm amazed at how different the play is when the table is experienced. I know I've been bluffed out of a pot when I had the winning hand - RammerJammer did it to me three weeks ago at the buy-in. That's why I enjoy the buy-ins and cash games so much - skill and strategy do make a difference. May join the Paradise freeroll tonight just for giggles - I don't have anything better to do...

It seems we all agree that against reaonable opponents semi-bluffing draws have value. Tables today, have newer players, which you can't get off hands.
I am considering lowering my percentage of semi-bluffing draws. Made hands are getting paid off anyways. This is unfortunate as it removes a depth from the game, but I'm thinking it will turn profitable.

Is my logic flawed? Thanks for the comments.

Bill

That really doesnt make any sense. There will not be any more or less low or high cards left in the deck based on which cards you play.

Say there are 5 players in a hand. Player 1 gets 3 9 and folds. Player 2 gets J 7 and folds. Player 3 gets 4 5 and calls (using your strategy), and player 4 gets AK and calls. Player 5 gets 2 7 and folds. Now there are no more or less low cards left in the deck because obviously, you dont put folded cards back in the deck. It's not like blackjack at all, especially since the deck is shuffled each hand.

What I mean is if there are more than 2 or 3 people in for a flop, chances are they have pretty decent hands, especially if there is a good portion of money in it. 1 may have ak, another aq another k q, if that be the case, then each of them have fewer outs than the other guy who stayed in with even 7 2 off. there is 2 more aces in the deck, there are 2 more queens in the deck, and there are 3 ks, 3 7s, and 3 2s. Therefore yes, the two lowest starting hands do have the best odds of drawing out. I was just trying to point out why 3 good starting hands will often be beaten by a crappy player's crappy hand drawing out. As far as it being "my strategy", I never advocated using this as a "strategy". In fact, it is pretty dumb because if the better hand hits anything you are beat. But there is that extra card in the deck to save you if they don't. That is all I was saying. I hope for your sake you were thinking I was saying that there were more 2s 3s 4s etc. in the deck from the git go. No, but if there are more than a few players in the pot they probably have at least one good card each, thus eliminating a draw card for another player. As for the reference to blackjack: If you pay attention to everyone elses cards, you can learn a lot about your odds to draw a good card for your situation. Say you are sitting on 13. You need an 8 or less. You notice that the other players have used more cards lower than 8 than above. You then know that there are probably more higher cards(9-a) which would bust you, than those which will help you. Depending on what the dealer has showing, you should consider standing put. If the dealer has ace showing, you should probably hit and take a chance, but if the dealer has 5 showing, you should prob take a chance that they will bust with the abundance of high cards. The same applies with poker, except you don't actually get to see their cards. But, based on the quality, or lack thereof, of your opponents, you have a decent idea of how many outs you have left in the deck. Now look at it this way. If everyone folds except you and one other person, chances are there are a lot of face cards left in the deck, especially online where it seems no one ever throws away a face card. So if you need a face card, especially an ace, there are prob 3 left in the deck, unless your opponent has one. Think about it, then say it doesn't make sense.

Nope! I had this exact debate not too long ago with Grum. Not really much point in bluffing and semi-bluffing online the monsters get paid off. Although I do bet my flush and open ended draws for value quite often. Which I don't consider a bluff simply egtting more money in the pot. Now you want to put a Newbie on complete tilt, bet a draw, it fall, and him pay you off they get pissed! They just don't put you on a draw when you bet it.

your logic is correct, you know the old saying>>you cant bluff a bluffer<< these new players will call with anything so sometimes the semi-bluff dont work and you end up taking the loss ..buckster