Folding A's pre-flop

If you were at the WSOP final table 1st prize was $1.5m, 2nd was $700k, 3rd was $400k, 4th was $150k.
you are in second place with 50000 chips, 3rd and 4th have about 25000 chips each, the chip leader has 200000 chips.
you are dealt AA. You are first to act. He suggests youcould fold because
The chip leader can call and take you out hitting trips, straight, flush, etc.
On top of this, because the pot odds are there, one of the short stacks might call, reducing your winning chances.
Effectively, one or both of the other two guys behind you sit and watch you go out and move up $250k and $550k. you lose $550k.

That is roughly how it goes. Two points I would make
Mr Sklansky is a more experienced player than me, so I won`t argue - in the scenario above I agree.
Some of us might have seen AA pre flop busted?
I also disagree that this is a negative move. If someone said to me "I`ll guarentee u $100k now, or, on one throw of a dice, ifyou hit a six I will give you $300k" I would thank him for the $100k and go book a holiday!!!

I would argue than rather than it being negative, it is sensible!!!

Let's go through some expected value exercises. First we'll look at going all in.

If you are called and you win (~80%), say you have a 5% chance to take 4th, a 15% chance to take 3rd, a 55% chance to take 2nd, and a 25% chance to take 1st.

If you are called and lose (~20%), you take 4th place (assume nobody else calls).

So the expected value of all in (not counting fold equity) = 0.20*150k + 0.80*(0.05*150k+0.15*400k+0.55*700k+0.25*1.5m) = $692,000.

Now look at folding.

If you do this, say you have a 10% chance to take 4th place, a 20% chance to take 3rd place, a 55% chance to take 2nd place, and a 15% chance to take 1st place. This seems reasonable given current stack sizes.

The expected value would then be $705,000.

So what's the right answer? If you accept these numbers, going all in with AA seems to be a better play than folding because there is a decent chance the big stack will fold. The expected value when you are called all in by the big stack vs. folding is about equal, but your fold equity should be more than enough to justify going all in.

If someone said "I'll guarantee you 100k now, or 300k if you roll a 1-4 on a die", I would take the roll all the time (from a purely monetary standpoint).

wow. AA is the best preflop hand, and if you can get all in against the chip leader pre flop, that would be an ideal scenario. simply put, if you are too timid to push with AA preflop at the final table then 1) i'll wonder how you got there in the first place, and 2) you have already conceded that you intend to finish in 4th place.

What James says is all true, however, I have YET to see A-A folded pre-flop onna TV! After all, you've already made at least 4th place and the idea in these monster games is to WIN, not come in 4th, and if you don't give it a shot when you've got the best possable hand pre-flop, yer NEVER going to win! The others could just wait and blind you out in no time! Ya gotta take a chance sometimes, that's why it's called GAMBLEING! After all, you already have AT LEAST 150K, and by not folding, you at least have a CHANCE at ALOT more---Fold, NO CHANCE--I mean, what ya gonna do? Wait for a better hand??

I'm sorry, but this thread is dumb. Having at worst an 80% chance of a double up, and probably owning the tournament, is hardly comparable to trying to roll a 6 on a dice for a triple up..

If you fold AA preflop, not only should you quit playing poker, but you should...... well.. yea. You should just quit playing poker.

Fold, not an option. Man I would like to see the TV analysis on that play. They may be simply lost for words to even attempt a logical justification for a player to fold.

You can't be serious?

All in.. its that simple. I have seen AA folded preflop couple times only because the top 10 were equal prize payouts (free entry into main event) The reason was that 1st place was same payout as 10th place. Under the circumstances you described, there is no logical justification. Poker is a game of decisions and that would be one foolish and weak play to fold. i`m dumbfounded as what Skansky`s strategy is. My copy of his book (Advanced Poker....) is worn out but i do recall something to that effect. i think the key words in that sentence is ``could fold``

I think its important to remember that Mr S writes books for a living and so he has to 'pad them out' a bit.

Its an interesting point.. one that is certainly worth thinking about and is usufull in the sense that itmakes you look 'at the whole picture' on every decision made at the table.

That said NOONE would fold AA at the final table of the WSOP!!!!

I think AA is used because its the best hand pre-flop and its always controversial when it gets called all-in and then gets out drawn.

I think Sklanskys point is more tat its right to tighten up when you have a chip lead and are in the money.. pick your spots wisely, dont play anything margional etc... but to fold AA preflop.. well hat just isnt poker!!!

The "point" is that you need to understand the difference between +chipEV and +$EV when playing tournaments.

Thought this thread looked familiar
Folding pocket AA pre flop.

After reading all the above, there's only one conclusion to folding AA pre flop. Your not playing to win. ANYONE who folds AA pre flop is an FT creeper, survive at all costs. IMO a losing player.

There are arguments to justify folding AA?, especially at a FT in the WSOP?
Still 2yrs later, my opinion stands, sklansky is on drugs.

Only once I folded AA pre-flop: I'm 17/19 in a freeroll where 1st is $5, 2nd is $3 & 3rd-18th is $2 prizes. A bigger stack goes all-in, I folded then & twice more. I take a look at the status & someone has dropped out; I've made 18th...I ain't gonna kid myself & say I could make 1st or 2nd from a shortstack in 17th so I was happy to make the bubble. Sorta like the Archinutz situation above
Alot of the pros go all-in with AK which is way weaker than AA. I don't really like this but they're pros I aint!.
All other situations all-in with the bullets is strong. If ya get beat...well, you went out swinging!

Go on.. elaborate please.

I'd give serious thought to folding that hand*

*if I was playing Razz

you absolutely need to take a shot.. if not on AA, then when???

This threat has been around so much it is untrue!!!

However, it is a fold.

If u lose u r out, if u don`t play the hand u will cement you winnings.

If it was a winner takes all the answer would be different, but it is not.

Put it another way. If, before the WSOP, someone said to you "I will give you pocket AA 5 times out of the first 20 hands" (not forgetting 10,000 entries) or choice 2 "I will guarentee you a place on the final table with and average chip stack" what will you take?

Playing pocket aces is vanity, final table place is sanity, cash winnings is reallity.

In that example, I'd take the average stack at the final table every time. Not becuse there's anything wrong with pocket aces, but because you can't win a tournament (let alone the Main Event) on the first day.

Which means your example actually isn't anything like the one in the OP.

As to the vanity point, playing aces preflop isn't vanity - it's the furthest thing from it, actually. There is nothing egotistical about playing aces. You're holding the best hand in the game, your ego doesn't need to come into it. Trying to push someone out with seven-deuce... now maybe there's some ego and vanity to that.

I meant with the given situational example. Aces v final table.

You will get some of the testosterone filled guy saying "give me the aces every time - I`ll win it from there"

NEVER fold with AA pre-flop. its the best hand you can start out with and its always fun to play. nobody ever expects you to have it. even when you hit your set. and going all in with AA pre-flop did seem like the wiser of choices.

Are you serious????/ Folding AA preflop? NEVER. actually maybe not never. the ONLY time i would fold aces is if I was in the BB and EVERYONE in front of me went all in.

Sometime I wonder why we bother.

"I WILL NEVER EVER FOLD AA, EVEN IF I BLOW THE CHANCE TO GUARENTEE WINNING AN EXTRA $250,000 WHEN I AM A 60% FAV OF WINNING, BUT 99% FAV TO WIN THE CASH BY FOLDING"

I would agree with the analysis if 3rd and 4rth had something like less than 10K and the blinds and antes were about to kill them both.

In the present case, the other two players have stacks half as large as yours. There is a good chance that one or both of them will make a move soon and that one of them will double up and be dead even with you.

What's worse, one player might double up at the expense of the chip leader and then take out the 4th place man, putting you in a bad 3rd place position.

The only time I have ever folded AA is in tournaments where you are playing for seats into other tournaments. Like where the top 10 players get a ticket to a bigger tourney and there are 12 players left, two of which have less than 10 big blinds in their stacks and I have over 50 big blinds...I see no point risking my stack with AA when all I have to do is wait for to very short stacks to go out.

I would never fold AA in a tournament with a cash payout....unless again both 3rd and 4rth were in very serious danger of going out in the next few hands...but I have never been in that situation

At last Someone with a bit of sense

If you are thinking of mucking AA pre-flop under any circumstance or scenario, take some sound advice and stick to fishing or golfing and don't ever look at another poker table ever again.

I'd push so fast the dealer would be sporting two $500 chips for glasses.

I don't believe I can think of one situation where I am folding AA. I know I have a lot to learn about poker, but the day I fold them is the day I walk away from the game.

well im sick of being dealt pocket aces. Because evertime i push preflop all in with them more than 77% of the time I lose with them. Yes its sad. A few weeks ago before the bubble the chip leader pushed me all in preflop and i decided to fold them. The person in position after me called with pocket 2's and flopped 4 of a kind, along with an ace. I almost knew i was going to lose with the aces when i was dealt them. Its an over rated hand for me. I cashed by the way. 14th.- $780!!!

^results oriented - still a stupid move

the only time to fold AA preflop would be in a Sattelite, on the bubble with 2 others all in in front of you

i say play to win

What a great and meaningless stat. Let's see the pokertracker evidence.

It depends on a variety of factors. The hands the other guys have got including the largest stack holder. You ought to make a huge raise pre-flop (not go all-in) considering the chances of losing out on the event as ur in 2nd place already.. Folding would do you no good! And ye gotta gamble! Cheers

oh look it's another one of these stupid threads that will doubtless get 4395873496853453 meaningless responses like this one because it's been done to death and beyond.

go look up probability and expected value, kthx

I'm 8x the BB and then one BB for each person in plus pot so like half my a third my stack probably. If someone calls I have them beat so far it's mine to win and theirs to lose . Let's dance! :-)

Even the best players cash 1/3 or less in a large MTT and only make the final table 50% or less of the times they cash. It doesn't make a difference to me whether I go out first on or the bubble, I still didn't cash.