Folded this flush draw. Wrong?

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RickAversion

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1/2NL Cash live.
Stacks vary from 50bb to 150bb.
First orbit, no player profiles.

Hero gets AJd
V1 bets $10. Hero calls with 2 others.
Pot = $40

Flop has 2 diamonds.
V bets $25.

Hero folds.
Terrible mistake?

9 outs = 18%/36% equity.
Pot odds were 65:25 or about 30%
There would have been a River bet, so I used next card 18%

pot odds charging 30% for 18% equity = Fold.
Weak implied odds b/c when the 3rd suit hits, everyone respects a large bet and folds.
 
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hffjd2000

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How about if A and J are your other outs?

Why not at least call and evaluate/decide on latter streets?
 
nabmom

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How about if A and J are your other outs?

Why not at least call and evaluate/decide on latter streets?

I agree that you probably had more than the 9 outs you are counting. I think it matters to know what your position is compared to the other two players that also called (what is the order of the flop betting, are there still others left to act after you call his bet).

What are the villain's tendencies? Is he always c-betting a flop/rarely c-betting a flop? I'd probably, with my nut flush draw and likely two overs to the board, and depending upon where the other players were in this hand, raise.

I personally don't like the safer/passive call on the flop. It prices in the other players to call as well and then you just don't know where you stand in the hand.
 
teepack

teepack

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Need a lot more info than what you provided. Was there a pair on the board? Were the 3 cards connected? I agree that I'd probably give it at least one more go to see if a diamond hit.
 
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aznman08

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Need a lot more info than what you provided. Was there a pair on the board? Were the 3 cards connected? I agree that I'd probably give it at least one more go to see if a diamond hit.

This

Postion? Flop cards? Visual profiles of villian?

From the info you gave, you're getting a vague answer as it is.
 
LD1977

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Usually in position you can call since there is no danger of a raise (unless you want to stack off, which is not bad by itself because you can get it in against weaker flush draws which you crush and overpairs which you have enough equity against) and you can compensate for not having direct odds to call.

If you can get squeezed or get action only from sets, 2P and AA (hands that are ahead of you) then raise/fold is OK.

I would be inclined to fold mostly on a paired board because vs several people it is pretty bad situation.
 
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Cymro

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It depends on the board and the villain, but in position against an unknown I'd definitely at least call. First of all, your equity is never below 30% here unless he's made a set or FH, Secondly, there's a lot of ways this pot could play out, and I'd rather make a decision on a later street where I have more info. I mean if it's a 10-high flop, and he has K-10, you're actually a slight favourite because you have 9 cards to a flush, plus 6 cards you can draw to make a better pair, which makes 15 outs, plus runner-runners.
 
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RickAversion

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I disagree.

You make no sense in just calling to see Turn for no good reason.
If V bet 5x the pot, would you call just to see next card?
That is fish gambling. I am using math.

The bet was too big. Nut flush means almost nothing. Odds barely change.
Odds of someone else having same flush draw is negligible.

The MATH says I would be paying way too much to see the next card.
Fold was the right move with 9 outs.

Only correct thing you said was to raise, in case of fold equity.
At my table, there is no fold equity.
 
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RickAversion

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Wait, why is my equity never below 30% ?

V is betting into the pot, and I have nothing.
Squat. Zilch. Nada. No pair.
Just maybe an overcard, and just a flush draw.

He had something to be betting with, and he bet over 60% of the pot, and my pot odds were 18%/36%

So, my equity is 36% for TWO cards. But, that includes 2 bets, not one.
 
LD1977

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Maybe you should get Poker Stove or equivalent program and do some work on it? Will clear things right up.
 
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WiZZiM

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you probably have more outs depending on the flop. it also depends if we have 50 or 150 bb's. and villina is not overbetting the pot? he's betting 25 into 40, it's easily a call, likely a raise/get it in spot also depending how deep we or our opponants are. If you already know what the answers are, then there is little point in posting it..

At least explore the points people make, don't just assume you are right. You might be, but exploring other options is a great idea in general, gets you to think outside your comfort zone.
 
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DunningKruger

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Yikes. Tagging this topic for later tonight.
 
i Frenzy

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I would like to know what cards came up on the flop. I had a simular hand last night. K-10c flop came out two clubs and J of diamonds. I bet twice the BB, he raised enough to put me all in and after some thinking, given my odds, I threw a hail marry and called. Needless to say he turned JAos, turn was an Ace and river was a random spade. Point being I played the odds and still lost but that's poker. I wish I had folded lol
 
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Cymro

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Wait, why is my equity never below 30% ?

V is betting into the pot, and I have nothing.
Squat. Zilch. Nada. No pair.
Just maybe an overcard, and just a flush draw.

He had something to be betting with, and he bet over 60% of the pot, and my pot odds were 18%/36%

So, my equity is 36% for TWO cards. But, that includes 2 bets, not one.

It doesn't necessarily include two bets, and even then, depending on how much he bets the turn, and what card hits the turn, you could still have good odds to call the turn.

If you called the flop, the pot would then be $90.

If he bets $25 again on the turn, it becomes $115.

$25 is about 20% of $115. You're getting 5:1, definitely worth calling.

Without some idea of what the board looks like, it's very difficult to know what your odds are, but drawing hands can have better odds of winning than made hands.

Check this out:

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: Q:spade:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) J:spade: T:club: 7:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 204.5 BB, Hero calls 91 BB

Turn: (188.5 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:

River: (188.5 BB, 2 players) K:club:

BTN shows J:diamond: A:heart: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 56%, Flop 34%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows K:spade: Q:spade: (Straight, King High) (Pre 44%, Flop 66%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 179.5 BB

Now I made this decision to call All-In here because:

1. I've played well over a thousand hands with this guy, and I know most of the time he's making this play with TPTK, so I'm about 80% sure he has A-J.

2. With a flush draw, an open end straight draw, two overcards to his jacks, and even a backdoor royal/straight flush draw, I know that most of the time, I'm winning here, even though I don't have the best hand on the flop.

In this case, I was a 66% favourite. Even if this guy had 9-8 to make the J-high straight, I was still a 53% favourite, and no matter what he was holding, I was never more than a 60:40 underdog - even though I had no pair..

But let's work it out.

To beat A-J, these are my outs:

2 Aces (His Ace was almost dead here) for a straight
3 Kings to win with top pair
3 Queens to win with top pair
3 9s for a straight
9 Spades for a flush

That's 20 outs, which is 40% the remaining deck, and I have two chances to hit them. That means I have about a 68% chance of hitting one of my outs, but I can still lose in certain situations even if I do (Any Turn and river combo of AA, AJ, KQ, QJ, KJ I would still lose), so my actual chance of winning is more like 66%

So you should always try and figure out what your opponent likely has, and how many outs you have to beat him before you make a decision to call, because by just saying "Well, I have 20% to hit my flush on the turn, so I should fold", you're missing out on big pots that you could win.

Google "poker odds calculator" and try running a few hand combos through it, it'll give you a much better idea of how certain hands match up on certain boards.
 
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cplinbuffalo

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no pain no gain...pay for the turn card if u whiff on it then consider folding
 
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ramrjamr2007

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Its all a gamble. I never advise chasing in cash games.
 
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chauncey274

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Some things to consider.

Do you think any of the other players were calling? I've only played live a few times but there were tons of fishes just calling along til river then folding. If another player calls behind you then you are getting really good odds. I've had one scenario where I'm second to act in a three way pot, holding a nut flush draw on the flop. I get bet into and see the fish on my left counting out calling chips. I call because I know I'm getting priced in with him calling also. I also had one over card and that helped.

Also the guy calling behind me was also calling chasing a lower flush. So when the flush hit on the river he paid off a very large bet.

You also have to consider is this a guy that will play draws aggressively (not something I've found common in the fishy live games around here). If so he might be betting with a weaker flush draw or straight draw. And if it hits and you get your nut flush to come in your getting a good chunk of his stack.

But when in doubt, fold and review and be better prepared next time. Throwing unsure chips into a pot is a very expensive way to learn a lesson. Folding even though you had some equity is a cheaper way to learn a lesson.
 
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GDZzz

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I would have seen a turn there depending on his stack size, I'd be more keen to calling if I had a pair or two overs as well or if my opponent is a maniac. That's just what I think though. I feel like if I do play with the odds all the time and I don't keep my play mixed up opponents will be able to exploit me if they put me on a draw and I actually am on a draw. I would not call in every situation though. Just my two cents!
 
fubarcdn

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I agree that this is a terrible fold.
You probably have 12 outs since the ace obviously did not come up on the flop so you have a 48% chance of improving on the turn if not higher.
To put another $25 into a pot of $65 you are getting over 2 for 1 for your money.
 
Carl Trooper

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His bet probably shows TP atleast or is somewhat strong. I don't know what the board reads, but based on the info given I am not folding here.

I call and evaluate turn. If turn is a blank and he fires big, easy fold.
 
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tomnovember

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The question is to rough... So just talking about the pot odds, are you sure that the villain will fold to any bet from you if the flush draw is made? If not, you may have some implied value.
 
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Cymro

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Yeah, if you make a small enough bet he won't be able to resist calling.
 
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