Fold equity question

#1 30th August 2009, 4:43 PM

I have a question, if we have 80% fold equity v's 1 villain. Do we have 60% fold equity V's 2 villains?

#2 30th August 2009, 8:06 PM

Assuming they come into the hand with the same ranges and will continue with the same ranges, your fold equity for two villains would be just shy of 80% (as one of them folding means that the other guy has one less combo of "folding-hands" available to him).

Usually things are a lot more complicated than that though, their ranges are very unlikely to be identical and the fact that it's a 3-way pot to begin with obviously changes both of their respective calling and folding ranges.

Why do you ask? I'm not sure I see the practical application of what you're asking.

#3 30th August 2009, 8:38 PM

I'm not sure if this is what you're asking, but if the probability of them folding, independent of the action of the other person is 80%, then the probability of them both folding is 80% * 80% = 64%.

#4 30th August 2009, 8:43 PM

Yeah, what Wurly said is right. What I said is wrong. I haven't gotten much sleep lately and my thinking is completely off. If you're asking for the chance of folding out two people with an 80% chance each of folding, you will take down the pot 64% of the time.

#5 31st August 2009, 4:59 AM

Ok thanks guys.

FP - I'm beginning something soon which involves me playing 1000+ SnG's in a month and the result of these could lead to live sponsorship. It's been a long time since I've played SnG's with regularity and have just found ICM.

As preperation for this I'm currently under-taking a large number crunching mission, starting with open shoving 4 handed from different positions with different stack sizes and will expand from there.

I ask this 80% double fold equity question because it's been a while since school days and I've forgotten, I was fairly sure it was 64% but not positive. This is for the open shove on the button ICM.....and then it will be for the UTG shove.

#6 31st August 2009, 7:11 AM

its actually 64% but the fold equity figure alone isnt enough, you still have to place players on ranges of hands.

#7 31st August 2009, 9:51 AM

We get our fold equity% directly from the calling range%, they're not independant of each other.

#8 3rd September 2009, 2:42 AM

fold equity is opponent dependent because one player may call with a certain hand and another might fold. So theoretically this question is stupid.

#9 3rd September 2009, 2:31 PM

Erm...ok.

Why is the question stupid?

Your first sentance contributed nothing to the thread so thank you. I didn't realise it was possible for someone to make such a blatently obvious statement and make it sound like it hasn't already been mentioned 2-3 times in previous paragraphs.

Just to cover (again) what we have all been saying (again) yes our opponents calling ranges are going to be different, which in turn effects the fold equity because the 2 are related to each other

i.e if our opponent will call with 20% of all starting hands then our fold equity is 80%

and if our opponent will call with 25% of all starting hands then our fold equity is 75%

Now that I've explained this insanely basic concept to you, you can answer my original question and you can also go into the reasons why this wouldn't be applicable to ICM if you want. You might want to include why calculating fold equity with 1, 2, 3+ players is also stupid.

#10 3rd September 2009, 3:26 PM

fold equity isn't just the chance someone will fold. it's the amount of equity you gain be getting them to fold the hand. eg your HU in a $100 pot. its a coin flip so you have exactly 50% equity in the pot. we got the same size stack as the villain and lets say if you don't shove it will be checked down. but lets also say those times you do shove the villain calls 80% of the time and fold 20% of the time. what actually happens is you gain 20% of of the villain's 50% equity in the pot the times he folds. so by shoving your hand EV is 60% so you have 10% FE when you shove.

#11 3rd September 2009, 5:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TJ Cookier

fold equity is opponent dependent because one player may call with a certain hand and another might fold. So theoretically this question is stupid.

hahahah

#12 3rd September 2009, 6:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardplayer52

fold equity isn't just the chance someone will fold. it's the amount of equity you gain be getting them to fold the hand. eg your HU in a $100 pot. its a coin flip so you have exactly 50% equity in the pot. we got the same size stack as the villain and lets say if you don't shove it will be checked down. but lets also say those times you do shove the villain calls 80% of the time and fold 20% of the time. what actually happens is you gain 20% of of the villain's 50% equity in the pot the times he folds. so by shoving your hand EV is 60% so you have 10% FE when you shove.

Yarr i understand what you mean. I'm calculating showdown equity seperately using pokerstove in a different part of the equation. I just need to know what fold equity I had V's 2 opponents.

This was the equation i used for the number crunching session for open shoves in 4 way pots as a short stack.

x - ICM equity if we just open fold
a - losing % of called showdowns
b - ICM equity after losing the showdown
c - winning % of called showdowns
d - ICM equity after winning the showdown
e - calling range %
f - ICM equity after villain folds to shove
g - fold range (fold equity alone) %

x < (((a*b)+(c*d)*e))+(f*g)

if x is less than the result from this equation then the shove>fold

I don't know if there's a more simple way of doing this anyone..? I'm just trying to calculate the peak M figure for shoves if different situations until it's engrained into the brain.

Obviously the calcs are adjusted and a bit longer for shoving on the button because you have to take into account the call/call line as well as the fold/fold and call/fold.

Anyhoo I just needed to check that we multiply the %'s for 2 opponents.

I hope this all made sense, I'm a bit tired atm.

#13 3rd September 2009, 7:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WossaPotOddz

Yarr i understand what you mean. I'm calculating showdown equity seperately using pokerstove in a different part of the equation. I just need to know what fold equity I had V's 2 opponents.

This was the equation i used for the number crunching session for open shoves in 4 way pots as a short stack.

x - ICM equity if we just open fold
a - losing % of called showdowns
b - ICM equity after losing the showdown
c - winning % of called showdowns
d - ICM equity after winning the showdown
e - calling range %
f - ICM equity after villain folds to shove
g - fold range (fold equity alone) %

x < (((a*b)+(c*d)*e))+(f*g)

if x is less than the result from this equation then the shove>fold

I don't know if there's a more simple way of doing this anyone..? I'm just trying to calculate the peak M figure for shoves if different situations until it's engrained into the brain.

Obviously the calcs are adjusted and a bit longer for shoving on the button because you have to take into account the call/call line as well as the fold/fold and call/fold.

Anyhoo I just needed to check that we multiply the %'s for 2 opponents.

I hope this all made sense, I'm a bit tired atm.

that's way too much math for my head right now. what i would do if i were you is download SNGWIZ and just take a quiz on bubble spots only. i just found ICM also and know a little about it now. i've been thinking of making charts for different hands on the bubble as to whether to push or fold depending on the various "m" of each player. but its a little ways away. just started on it really rough outlines. one thing about ICM that is very interesting is the value of chips change vs stack size. the bigger the stack the less each chip is worth. so on the bubble or anytime really you should be more willing to play a smaller stack allin in a coin flip as the value of the chips your winning is worth more than the chips you risk

-- there's also a thing called sngegt that's freeware i downloaded it but keep getting an error blinds.eml failed to load. you might try dwonloading it and have better luck than i did.

#14 3rd September 2009, 7:46 PM

I've heard of SNGwiz but apparently you pick up the ICM equity's of different situations more efficiently if you number crunch.

But yeah using the ICM to figure optimal M shoving points seems to be +EV

#15 3rd September 2009, 7:59 PM

SNGWIZ does # crunch. you can do lots with it. plug in push/calling ranges different stack sizes. it's free for 30 days too. check it out. have you heard of nash equilibruim? you might check out chillin411.com or holdemresources.com for more ICM stuff.

#16 3rd September 2009, 11:30 PM

With SNG Wiz, you can plug in your game HH's and then can review each of your shoves (or folds, etc.) and see where you went wrong (or right).+EV -EV shoves & calls.
I don't have it but as I only play SNG's recreationally and usually only a couple tables at a time but for someone who is playing them seriously I've heard that SNG Wiz is a must!

#17 4th September 2009, 5:36 AM

why do people think they can figure out fold equity as a %. Whether you should bet ass a bluff should be worked out as.

our percieved pot equity when called + our percieved fold equity as a % of how often the bet has to work.

#18 4th September 2009, 5:37 AM

oh i just realised u idiots were talking about SNG

#19 4th September 2009, 8:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardplayer52

SNGWIZ does # crunch. you can do lots with it. plug in push/calling ranges different stack sizes. it's free for 30 days too. check it out. have you heard of nash equilibruim? you might check out chillin411.com or holdemresources.com for more ICM stuff.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poker Orifice

With SNG Wiz, you can plug in your game HH's and then can review each of your shoves (or folds, etc.) and see where you went wrong (or right).+EV -EV shoves & calls.
I don't have it but as I only play SNG's recreationally and usually only a couple tables at a time but for someone who is playing them seriously I've heard that SNG Wiz is a must!

Nice. I'll have a proper look at all of these soon.

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