Flop Play: Floating & Hands with "Hidden Equity"

I'm bored again, and I figured I'd write a little bit about flop play in NLHE, since most people seem to focus a bit too much on preflop play.

I've seen a lot of people mention "floating" flops, or calling a continuation bet with the intention of stealing the pot later in the hand. And most people I've seen do this wrong. So, first lets consider the factors we need to make floating a profitable play:

1) We have a tight opponent who raises most hands he plays preflop & plays ABC poker. We do not float bad players. Bad players continuation bet less, and have a much harder time folding marginal hands. So when you're choosing which players to bluff, pick tight ones, who often raise preflop. Also, we'd prefer an opponent who will not be double/triple barrel bluffing us without a good hand.

2) The flop texture is unlikely to hit our opponent's range. If our opponent raises preflop, we call in position, and the flop comes out: This is not a good flop to float your opponent! I generally prefer to have the flop be queen high or lower when I float an opponent.

3) Position. Floating players works much better when you are in position. The ability to control the potsize & act last is very important when making plays against good opponents.

4) We have a hand with some equity in the pot. While bluffing is good, semi-bluffing is much better, since our bluff doesn't have to work nearly as often. Additionally, bluffing with some outs allows us to win a big pot when we hit our outs.

5) Our opponent has at least a 100bb stack. Bluffing pot committed opponents is a losing play in the long run!

Aight, so now that we know who we're going to make this move against, lets look at some scenarios, and the types of hands that we're looking to have when we're floating our opponents. Take this hand for example:

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$0.1-$0.25 No Limit, 6max
Hero has $25 on the button with a good table image
Villain has $25 and is in middle position, and is a decent player who we have this read on: Cannot fold top pair, plays straightforwardly. Stats: 26/15/2

Hero is dealt

Villain raises to $0.85. Hero calls $0.85, blinds fold.

Potsize = $2.05

Flop:

Villain bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35.
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This is a situation where many players would give up too easily. They think "gee, I have bottom pair, this hand isn't that strong, I should fold".

However, they're simply just playing their cards, and not playing the situation. All the factors are here for us to float this player. He's as a fairly tight raising range, if he didn't flop anything he's going to fold to us on later streets. If he has a legitimate hand, he's going to pay us off big if we make a big hand on later streets.

Additionally, 15% of hands (what he's raising preflop) is a range of { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }, which our hand fares well against:

{ Hand Range } - Equity
{ 8s4s } - 49%
{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } - 51%

So while our hand may just have bottom pair, our hand has a lot of "hidden equity" in this pot, for the following reasons:

1) Bottom pair allows us to make trips or two pair, giving us 5 outs.
2) We have several back door draws we can hit on the turn. Any spade gives us a flush draw, any Jack or 7 gives us an open ended straight draw. And any 6 or Q will give us a gut-shot straight draw. These draws, since they are back door draws, are well disguised, and will be hard to see coming.
3) Our pair of 4's may well be the best hand, since hands like AQ, AK will have missed the flop completely.

So for example, against pocket queens, our hand has a 25% chance to win by the river. Against AT, we have a 27% chance of winning. And against AK, we are a 77% favorite.

We call here on the flop to bet any turn when checked to, or call a bet with any card that gives us 8 more outs, or a hand of 2 pair or better.

Lets check another situation, where our hand likely has a lot more equity than people think.

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$0.1-$0.25 No Limit, 6max
Hero has $35 on the button with a good table image
Villain has $30 and is in middle position, and is a TAGGY player who we have this read on: Doesn't two-barrel bluff overcards on turn. Stats: 18/15/2

Hero is dealt

Villain raises to $0.85. Hero calls $0.85, blinds fold.

Potsize = $2.05

Flop:

Villain bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35.
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Once again, our hand has a lot of hidden equity to it. We again have the backdoor flush draw, and this time, we have a gutshot straight draw and two overcards. So against villain's range, here's how we do:

{ Hand Range } - Equity
{ QdJd } - 40%
{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } - 60%

This situation isn't quite as favorable, since our outs to over-cards are dirty. Hitting a Q or J on the turn will not allow us to play a big pot, and we will be crushed by hands like AQ.

However, the gutshot & runner flush draws allow us to have a large amount of equity, even against strong holdings. We are 22% to win against pocket aces, and 17% to win against a set of tens! And while that isn't a lot of equity, it is enough that when combined with bluffing out other hands that are showing weakness, this can be a profitable play in the long run.

Boy, that's some good advice! I guess sometimes I fold too easily. I must admit I rarely bluff. One situation I do bluff a bit is if I'm playing a short stack. If I bet big and they fold great. If they call and expose me though then the other players are more likely to figure me for a bluff even when I have good cards.

Don't pay for table image.

problem with floating the T9x rainbow and T82cc flops is that it's so so so easy for your opponent to just put you on the draw and never fold a pair when those draws don't hit. with a strong hand you're usually raising those flops because they're so wet

not that you should never do this, but somewhat dryer flops than the ones you mentioned are way preferable against decent opponents

good post C9

floating is a big aspect of being successful in ring games if you don't want to just "play the cards your dealt"

it takes experience and is helped by any reads you've collected on players and is a tool to be used against (as C9 said) tight players because you have a better chance of bluffing them out of the pot or them giving up after a call on the flop which could freeze them.

At the stakes I play, I don't think I've ever had an opponent think this deeply. They raise preflop with big hands that can make TPGK, they c-bet ~100% of the time, and they just give up when they have air. Most opponents at 25$ NL 6 max can never fold an overpair, and it takes significant action to push them off of a top pair/good kicker kind of hand. They spew implied odds when they have a mediocre hand, and they are never barreling their air. Floating these opponents, IMO, really exploits two big leaks in their game.

And yeah, those were just two examples I could think of. If you'd have preferred a Q73r flop, I think you're just nit-picking a bit.

keep it up c9 quality posts coming out of you a lot lately....will be reading!

i don't think it's nit picking. i'm just saying that it makes a very big difference. if they bet on a board with some sort of obvious draws and you just call, a lot of villains, some bad, some good, will auto-think "oh he's chasing [insert draw], i hope card x doesn't hit." usually that draw won't hit and they might convince themselves to call down with marginal pairs. it doesn't take much of a thought process, really

also, i'm not saying it needs to be as dry as it gets. i just mean like T64r would be pretty good. there are still some straight draws, but more subtle. T9x on the other hand is about as drawy as a flop can get without regard to suits because KQ/QJ/KJ/87 are all hands the average player likes to play

basically just putting forth a caveat. everything you said can be totally effective, but i'd be particularly selective about the opponents vs whom i float the type of flops you described, but somewhat more keen to do it on something like T64 rainbow and dryer. but still definitely something to incorporate into your game

i think it's a really excellent and well-thought out post, just adding discussion