Expected Value/Implied Odd's

Hello, this is my first post. (please be nice!) I have been playing poker for about 1 year now, mostly sit and go tourneys. I started reading at this forum and found my self confused with Expected Value, Pot odds, Implied odd's. It seems to me that using those I could justify almost any call, when in a tourney that has a positive EV and Inplied odds that you call and lose, your out of the tourney. How is that positive EV? If the odds are 5 to 1 that you will make your hand and the pot pays 10 to 1, you make the call? even if it costs you all of your chips in the tourney, so you earn no money? Am I wrong or just seeing it diffrently? Please help thanks in advace.
Xandit.

I'm going to leave the technical answers to your questions to our experts. Just wanted to say that this is a great first post and you'll find the help you need here...

EV and expectation are interchangeable terms so if you see me talk about expectation don't get confused. Now your question is a VERY good one. The math part of poker most directly applies to LIMIT ring games although you should still know the numbers when playing a NL ring game. You can expect to be a profitable limit hold'em player if you play the game very analytically. However it is highly unlikely that you will win an online NL MTT playing strickly by the numbers. The number one reason is in order to win a MTT you have to win some hands where your preflop edge is minimal or even slighty negative these hands are most commonly called races, and make no mistake you HAVE to win some to do well in tournaments especially online because every online tournament would be considered an extreme turbo structure in live play, so you have to have some gambler in you to be a good tourney player. NOW you say you can justify ANY call using the EV and ODDS, you misunderstand the concepts if you really feel that way, these values are used to justify or NOT justify your next move mathmatically. In NL MTT's you only NEED to get the numbers close whereas in in LIMIT ring games a percentage point or even a single bet can turn a hand from a winner to a loser this is not necessarily the case in NL tournies. well gotta run 4 a bit but will gladly chime back in when I get back cause very easily could be a GREAT thread!

Ok.

EV = Expected Value = Average profit/loss in the long run that a certain action gives.

Pot Odds = Amount of money that is in the pot in relation to how much you must put in to pay for a draw.

Implied Odds = How much money you can expect to make given that you hit your draw in relation to the pot size and how much you must pay to draw.

In specific relation to tourneys, you're right sometimes the statistically sound option is not the right one, simply because of the tournament environment. Ring games are largely games of pushing slight edges, as you can reload if you lose, but in a tournament once you lose your stack, you're done.

Thus the 1500 (or whatever) starting chips have much more importance than the $200 worth of chips you buy in for in a 200NL game. This is why many people don't advocate making moves very early in a tourney - if you push a 55/45 edge it is technically +EV, however your tournament EV is negative, as if you were to win, the 3000 chips you have with 10/20 blinds is not a huge improvement, and has not doubled your earning expectations from the tournament (how often do you see a chip leader in the first few levels of a tourney go on to win the thing or even place well?), whereas in a ring game doubling from $200 to $400 has exactly the effect it advertises - it's doubled your money.

Basically the lesson here is adapting to the tournament environment, which sometimes involves looking at hands from a wider perspective. A similar example would be if you're very shortstacked (say you have 5BB in fromt of you) in a tournament and UTG with ATo. It's obviously a push, but not in a cash game as you can just fold, reload, and play on.

XD sent me a PM with this thread linked in it so here I am. I had already skimmed the OP, but I wanted to give a really concise answer and was in a rush at the moment. I may get long winded or ramble a little but hand with me and we'll hammer this bastard out with the help of some of our resident badasses and all 'round know-it-all's.

OK, expectation and EV are terms that follow and closely relate to calling with correct odds and playing by mathematical and statistical edges. He also already got out of the way the fact that this pertains mainly to LHE (limit hold 'em) ring games as opposed to NL rings and tournaments. Not to say that having correct pot odds isn't important in NL because it is, it just isn't emphasised as much as it is in LHE. In NL you are forced into situations--due to the constant raising of blinds and introductions and raising of antes--to make moves that sometimes may not be correct mathematically. In other words you decide to call when the pot isn't laying you the correct odds to do so. In this situation you're looking to get lucky in the short run for the outcome of the tournament, therefore a call in this situation is an acceptable play. This differs from Limit Hold 'em ring games because you aren't facing an increasing blind structure, which allows you to use the same equation over the long term and make decisions that are mathematically sound which--also in the long term--are proffitable. An example of this is a call in which you're being laid 14 to 1 pot odds in a situation where the actual odds of your winning is 11 to 1 you call no matter what. Sometimes this call will not pan out and you will lose the hand and the money invested in the pot, however, with those odds, over the long term you will profit from that call if made consistantly.

I will be glad to add more to this discussion, but first I want to see where this thread goes with a few more replies.

Great first post, BTW...jumpin' Jesus, we have a discussion topic.

I would like to thank everyone for there help. I understand it much better now. I do have another question, How do you figure out the math for EV? I'm looking for the formula. I'd just like to know. Thanks again everyone.
Xandit.

UH OH! Preflop; chart needed. Post EV=outs/pot odds positive value go; negative don't go. Assuming you are ONLY factoring the math into your next move. I best not hear any stuff about oversimplifying it. I am tailoring the info given to the experience level of the person asking the question!

Oversimplifier.

I found a thread at this forum posted on the frt page titled "chance of winning percentage" by f.paulson. If we could use this as an example of EV and the odds i asked about earlier, i would appricate it. If i'm being to greedy with all of your time i apologize in advace. I know there are lot's of others who need your help too.

Four flush completing 39% 1 in 2.6 / 3:2


this was posted on the forum, how do i read this? Would I need the pot to pay to justify the call or not to call. an example of the numbers would be good for me. i.e. 100 to call a pot that has 450 in it? Thanks to everyone you've been very informative and friendly.

Xandit

plz remember that that chart is for going to the river. it is no longer 39% after missing on the turn, i think it drops to just under 18%. just keep that in mind as it is often correct to call the turn. but terribly wrong to call the river(limit)

The first ever poker book i got was one of Ken Warrens, and the very first excerise that i done was as follows, cant find the page to quote from so bear with me. It was a teaching excerise about drawing to a flush with one card to come.

Now while its great to look at the odds on a book or on your screen i found this excerise actually made me realise the difference that pot odds make.

Get a pack of cards and some chips.

Deal yourself a flush draw and 1 oppenent a made straight on the turn, bet one chip each on the outcome of the river card , and note how how many chips you win/lose after you deal out the FULL DECK.

Repeat this excerise with 3 4 and 5 players respectively.

Note the pot increases each time you add an extra player, even though your odds of winning stay the same, this is POT ODDS

Note the situations when you lose money -EV, break even, and win +EV.

This is basic basic stuff but its what gave me the start, when it comes to NL tourneys I play exactly the same, if i feel that i have the best hand, ill put all my chips in. I lose a lot, but i also win a lot, (Ive paid for myself and Tracys ski holiday so far this year solely from poker). Its not about just one game, tourney or not, its about one big long poker game, and if your not prepared to play the odds you will never be a long term winner.

On Wednesday i over bet with QQ into K2, and got sucked out, but that didnt bother me because i had the best hand at the time.

Hope this helps, and i hope that ive got this post fairly accurate.

{Average net profit from action} - {Average net profit from all other possible actions}, I guess.

Basically the amount you have to call must be less than 39% of the pot for you to have odds to call (assuming you're not going to have to pay more money on the turn).