EV vs Amt Won Graph on PT3

I downloaded PT3 about 16k hands ago. For the 1st 13k hands the line representing Amt won and the line for EV were very close to each other but after about 13k hands the lines diverged and Amt won is running substantially below EV. Not to sound stupid but is this exactly what variance looks like or could poor play be the reason (or some combination of the two)? I feel like it is variance because when I was playing badly and losing the EV line was close to my losses.

Attached Images

Amount Won vs EV for fx20736.jpg (19.7 KB, 45 views)

When the EV line is above the Amt won line, it means that in situations where the money is all-in, you are ahead and are losing by the river.


So my guess is that you have been getting sucked out on a little bit. But also, it seems like the all-in situations doesn't make up for some poor play which is why your a losing player right now.

I am now running WAY under EV for about 5000 hands. Because I am pretty new to online Poker I am really confused about whether I

1. just really suck at poker

or
2. am just going through variance.


The sad part is that my EV line has flattened out which seems to reinforce to me that I am finding equillibrium in my play but results don't validate that.

Attached Images

Amount Won vs EV for fx20736.jpg (21.4 KB, 30 views)

The 2nl levels will do this.
Some thoughts.
1. play the ABCs of poker at lower limits, don't try to bluff.
2. take notes on peeps and what they are playing.
3. learn to fold.

How are you playing loose or tight?
post some of the hands your having problems with.

Over 19k hands I am at 15.75 VPIP with a PFR of approx 12. I generally play a pretty TAG style. Currently My minimum opening ranges are:

EP: 99+, ATs+, AK-AQo, KQs
MP: 77+ A9s+, AJo+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs
LP: 55+, Any suited Ace, AT+, any two suited 9 or better; KQs-T9s, KJo, QJo

Dealer: Any pp, Any two Broadway, A9+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,SC's to 76s, 1 gappers to 86s

I always open raise 3xBB, c-bet virtually 100% when OOP and raise or fold any bet until I have a set or better.My weaknesses are

I sometimes:

1. 3 bet light, especially from the SB vs Button Open Raises
2. re-raise c-bets with air when I am IP
3. Shove strong draws in 3 bet pots.

Also when I make a monster hand I a hard time getting paid off. A prime example is when I flop a set on a board with two of the same suit, I tend to bet big fearing a flush, likewise if I make the nut flush on the turn I tend to bet a little large so I don't get rivered by a Full House. It also seems that 4 out of 5 times when I get AA everyone folds to my standard 3BB raise but if I raise with TT or AK I get tons of unwanted action. I have lost close to one hundred dollars playing 70% of the hands at 5NL, 28% at 10NL and 2% at 2NL (numbers are estimates)over this span which amounts to 5 cents per orbit. I really want to improve and become a winning poker player I just don't know if my learning curve is going to get me there or not.

ok, I think you are playing to many hands.
I know we can't use the button to steal from, well i should say we can't steal to much.
The re-raise with air does not work in the lower limits all to well.
You really need to stop shoving on strong draws, our odds of hitting a flush are 1 in 10, i forgot the odds for a str8.

what do your HUD stats say on you?