-EV

When variance evens you out do you see it in the form of -EV or +EV?


Say Im running 10bb/100, then go on a downswing will I see the difference in allin ev?


Since my return to 10nl Im at 4bb/100 overall. But Ive been getting crushed at the tables the last few days. Bad Beats and a few bad plays. Now Im running way -EV again. Is that variance?

I think you are confusing the term "EV". I'm not sure. EV stands for 'expected value', so you really don't go on a -/+EV run...unless there is some factor that causes you to play better or worse.

i.e. When most people 'tilt' it they will then do many -EV things. If you are rested, focused, and playing your A-game, your EV should be higher, or in the '+' side of things.

EV is not really what causes a downswing, but instead it's what you do that can make your Expected Value to be higher or lower (again, unless you are doing something that affects the outcome of things).

Also a situation can be +/-EV. Take on Doyle for a cool million heads up, well, that would be a -EV bet for most people. Take me on in any game of poker, well then that would be +EV

Cheers

I dont know. That just doesnt sound right to me. Maybe Im just confused.

If I make a bad play, ok , my EV for that hand will drop. But what if most of my plays arent -EV and I still lose a few big pots... then what?

That's called variance. You can play 100% perfect poker and still lose the hand--variance.

EV is where you can look at odds on a hand and have an 'expected value' for the cards in play...but that does not mean you'll win or lose the hand. For example, you hold AA and I hold 55. Preflop you have an 80% chance to win the hand, so your expected value for that hand is currently positive. The EV for holding AA vs 55 is +. However, we get allin preflop, and I catch my 5 on the river. Variance. AA will not win every time vs 55, even though its +EV to play the hand.

You going from 10BB/100 hands to 4BB/100 hands is variance, not EV. EV is just telling you if a given situation is a good or bad bet--not if you actually win or lose that bet. I bet you $1M the Steelers win the superbowl this year, and all you have to do is put up $100 against my $1M. That is a +EV bet. Of course you'd still lose your 100 bucks because everyone knows the Steelers are going to win it

I thought EV went like this.We both have $100 in chips so i'm holding the AA an your holding the 55 we get it all in pre flop 5 on the river came.My value would be +$80 yours -$80 but i would be down $100 an you up $100.My thoughts were it just shows how bad\good you are running an when right?

Booked.



Yeah this is confusing. I kinda thought that too Joebob.



But then what happens if I get allin preflop w KK vs. AA

Or lose set over set. Me getting me money in on a dry brd with a set is surely +EV. But what if he has a bigger set? Then what?

This is correct. The overall picture of the hand is your EV is +80 and mine is -80 for the hand. The RESULT is I won 100 and you lost 100.

This really isn't correct. EV does not show how hot/cold you are running, or how much you are making. You could be dealt AA every hand one night and lose your butt in overall winnings for that session...but you're EV for that hand is still way +, and even though you lost you would expect to win $XX.

EV is what you expect to get from a situation. It does not reflect the outcome necessarily. Outcome is measured in different ways like bb/100 hands, and overall bankroll total. EV just states if a certain bet has positive or negative value before you know the whole situation (i.e. preflop).

In the 55 vs AA hand, yes the value there is +80 over MANY MANY hands (read as hundred thousands of hands). Once variance is taken out of the picture (many hands) your EV will be 80. However, that does not reflect the ebb and flow of the game, bankroll, or how hot/cold you may be running currently.

I ask myself to what extent is the EV notion applicable to PLO, i know that mathematically the concept doesn t change , but would you apply the same NLHE EV idea to plo too?

All-in EV and EV are different things.

Also ignore All-in EV as it's near useless. Like you said, if you get your KK in pre vs AA you didn't make a bad play but AIEV says you have. If you get a set vs set, you didn't make a bad play but AIEV says you did. It's near pointless. Keep making the right plays, +EV plays against your opponents RANGE and you'll be fine.

Also if you're below or above AIEV it means nothing about your play. Nothing. It just means you have gone all in with AAvs55 and are expected to win 80% of the time. 80% of $100 is 80$, that's your share of the pot. Obviously though you're either gonna win $100 or lose $100. Over the long term theoretically it will even out but you made the right play so ignore it.

EV is just a term used in gambling as a general. PLO, NLHE, heck tiddly-winks...a bet will typically be +/-EV, or there are some bets that are just considered even--a coin flip.

Expected Value is just a term which can be applied to anything. 'I bet that bird A will land before bird B. I'll give you 3:1 odds.' If you see bird A is 1 foot off the ground and bird B is 100 feet off the ground, that would be a dumb bet, or -EV (the bet he is trying make with you has negative expected value/you will most likely lose the proposed bet).

EV does not say if you are playing well, or is only applicable to one game or another. EV says if a particular bet is supposed to be profitable or not.

Most of the time in poker you are working with incomplete information, so even though the bet of AA vs KK is +EV for the AA, if you hold KK, you may get the money in willingly before you know that the hand is actually -EV for this particular situation. Like Chippy said, you are betting against his 'range' of hands so KK is still a +EV starting hand.

Although it does give a very slight indication of how you are running in All In situations - if you are running a long way below EV then it is likely that you are running cold because you are getting it in ahead but losing

yeah this EV thing is killing me.

Do you guys generally run -EV? I mean I've run -EV ALL summer long. Back in June and July I was a few $100 -EV playing 5 & 10 nl.

Beating 10nl @ 3.5bb/100 but my adjusted EV is like 7.
Is this how it normally is? Or will one day I wake up and be on a massive heater and shoot alll the way back up to =EV.(if that makes any sense)?

Im just trying to get a good grasp on this online poker thingy.

Stop worrying about whether you're running at + or - in AIEV