Equity value of a 3-straight on the flop

#1 30th January 2007, 5:41 AM

I didn't realize this before, but a 3-straight on the flop is worth just under 5% equity, surprisingly high.

I found this when analysing the following match-up:

Flop: 3♦10♦4♣

Me: 5♥5♣ - 14.04%
Villain: 3♥3♠ - 85.96%

But remove the 3-straight

Flop 3♦10♦K♣

Me: 5♥5♣ - 9.19%
Villain: 3♥3♠ - 90.81%

Definitely something to consider when you're weighing up an all-in call, as I faced on this hand.

#2 30th January 2007, 5:48 AM

Doesn't that % also include our outs for hitting our set?

#3 30th January 2007, 7:44 AM

5% sounds about right. You'll find that it's the same for a backdoor flush draw.

#4 30th January 2007, 8:13 AM

Backdoors are considered roughly 1, or 1 and a half outs i think.

#5 30th January 2007, 9:05 AM

ya backdoor flush is around 4% so that sounds right.

#6 30th January 2007, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChuckTs

Doesn't that % also include our outs for hitting our set?

The %ages given in the post are the win %ages... so if you look at the second example without the 3-straight, presumably our entire equity comes from the two Five outs (plus a very small amount for runner-runner Tens or Fours), which is about 9%.

BTW there's no reason I can think of why the odds for a backdoor flush should be the same or similar to the odds for a backdoor straight...

#7 30th January 2007, 12:20 PM

I'm not sure if there's a "reason" per se, it's just convenient that the likelyhood of the two possible backdoor draws happen to be roughly the same.

#8 30th January 2007, 12:29 PM

I think its because you could make many straights: 5432A, 65432, 76543, and not just one, so you have many combinations for runner straight after the turn.

Maybe thats why flush and backdoor straight have same %

#9 30th January 2007, 1:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChuckTs

Doesn't that % also include our outs for hitting our set?

Not sure what I was thinking when I wrote this

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