Equity Here Is Really Close?

Hero's Dealt: Ac Ad 80%
Villain Dealt: Kc Ks 20%

Flop: Hero Equity: 84% Villain Equity: 15%
Qd Jd Td

Turn: Hero Equity: 44% Villain Equity: 55%
As

With One Card to Come Do You Call if Villain shoves on the turn?

1 Ace Left for Quads
1 Kh to Tie
9 Outs to pair the board (Qshc, Jshc, Tshc)
8 Outs for Nut Flush (2d, 3d, 4d, 5d, 6d, 7d, 8d, Kd)

We Have 19 outs.

We need to dodge: 2shc, 3shc, 4shc, 5shc, 6shc, 7shc, 8shc, 9shcd

(25 Cards)

Can we ever justify calling a shove here knowing Villain may potentially have KxKd?

We need 1 of 19 cards to hit and need to avoid 25 remaining in the deck.

Yes because unless stacks are absurdly large we will be getting a favourable price to call.

The 44% equity that our hand has includes the times he has Kd so the fact that he potentially has it dosent matter, unless you know from additional information that the player would not continue without Kd, of course at that point it shifts from a potential to a certainty that he has it. Realistically you probably wont know an opponent well enough to be certain that he holds Kd so we have 44% equity in the hand and I am sure we will have invested more than 12% of the effective stack by the turn so we are correct to call.

Is this cash, sng, MTT? Is my stack big, is his stack big, when are we in the money (if tourny style)? Too little info to give a right answer other then, 'well it depends...'

Appart from the fact that you are getting odds to call, as Stu_Ungar pointed out.

It's a close decision and there are two hands that we're worried about, AK/KK, anything else we're ahead of (maybe KQ too depending on pre-flop action). I call here every time. Just pointing out the obvious that because a decision is close against the top of an opponent's range generally means you shouldn't be folding (generally).

^^^^ That. Easy call. Also surprising that all the money wasn't already in by then.

stu, where did you get the 12%?

If we have 44% equity then we get 44% of the pot back on an allin.

The pot is always twice the effective stack.

So if we have 44% equity we cant get the last 88% of our stack in bad.

Hence if 12 % of our stack has already gone in, we cant get the final 88% of the stack in bad and with AA vs KK, the preflop + flop betting means we must have got more than 12 % in (unless stacks are RIDICULOUS)

Yeah this was just a curious situation I was thinking about. Expected regular 100BB stacks.

Fo me,

The total situation is critical and information that has been accumulated over the session would probably help determine my move. On pure situational, if it were a cash NL game, too hard to say...but very possible. SNG, most definitely, especially if I were already in the money and the table was short handed.

Too many Internet players, I feel, try to boil the highly nuanced game of poker down to pure outs and probabilities. Poker is so much more than this and what makes it so beautiful.

Let's suppose our villain shoves and we're in a live cash game. I am going to say something like "Yup, that's a trouble card for me." And show him my set of aces. If the villain wants me to fold, he'll show me at least one K. Assuming I have a miraculous read on our villain here (or he showed me both his kings - which would be unwise, why not just show one - if he knows that folding is the incorrect play for me) and I work the math according to Stu and our Equity calculator - I'm pretty sure it's call here.

We are looking at a 3-5 bet preflop, somewhere between 2-3 bets on the flop, depending on situation - I'd expect most of our stacks to be in by the turn, unless you're looking at SUUUUUPER deep stacked play.

Playing this had not knowing my villains whole cards - with a gutshot to the str8 flush, a bunch of cards to the nut flush, and 10 cards to make a full house or quads - I couldn't justify folding here. I just have too many outs. Our villain would have to have flopped a Str8 Flush to have me drawing thin enough to fold - and when that happens I'm either drawing to one out or dead, depending on which end he caught it on.

If that's the case you've gotta pay him, but since it happens so rarely, I wouldn't even consider it a possibility, and get my money in. (Plus, are we looking at a 3-4 bet pot preflopo with Kd9d or 9d8d? I think not.

@ Dinoroxx - in a cash game, this should be a call. I'd understand thinking about it if you were playing for large effective stacks, but since you're practicing proper BRM a loss here won't take you out of the game, just cost you your stack and force you to buy-in again. Our villain's put a ton of his money into the pot bad so far, now he's got the nuts due to luck, we're going to call here and hope to make a better nut hand.

Good post SP.

Advice like this was what I was looking for. Thank you Stu Thank You Weregoat.